Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDAI-19
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDAI-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 137 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (10 Mar 09:45 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 137 km/h 0.4 m 764 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 176 km/h 3.1 m 1256 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Mar 2019 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar5291 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 08 Mar 2019 12:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 09 Mar 2019 00:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 09 Mar 2019 12:00 137 -
- - - - - Madagascar




Impact estimation for the next 72h

Rainfall

1256 mm

Up to 620 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Mar 2019 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMadagascar4 
100-250 mmMadagascar, Mozambique, South Africa615493
+
Mozambique216333 
Madagascar128962 
South Africa270198 
50-100 mmTanzania, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Malawi, Zambia, Mozambique, Madagascar, South Africa, Lesotho2682912
+
Tanzania54278 
Democratic Republic of the Congo432 
Malawi23798 
Zambia1496 
Mozambique403907 
Madagascar194626 
South Africa2003363 
Lesotho1012 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 08 Mar 2019 12:00 721 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 09 Mar 2019 00:00 678 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 09 Mar 2019 12:00 764 620 thousand
- - - Tanzania, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Malawi, Zambia, Mozambique, Madagascar, South Africa, Lesotho




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Colchester, South Africa. This height is estimated for 10 Mar 2019 09:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 09 Mar 2019 12:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Mar 2019 09:45 Colchester South Africa  0.4
11 Mar 2019 09:30 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.3
11 Mar 2019 09:30 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.3
11 Mar 2019 09:30 Manampea Madagascar  0.3
11 Mar 2019 09:30 Antsafy Madagascar  0.3
11 Mar 2019 09:30 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.3
11 Mar 2019 09:30 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.3
11 Mar 2019 09:15 Onara Madagascar  0.3
11 Mar 2019 09:15 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.3
11 Mar 2019 09:15 Ambato Madagascar  0.3
11 Mar 2019 09:30 Marovazha Madagascar  0.3
11 Mar 2019 09:15 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.3
11 Mar 2019 09:15 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.3
11 Mar 2019 09:15 Marofototra Madagascar  0.3
11 Mar 2019 09:15 Voalavo Madagascar  0.3
09 Mar 2019 20:45 Richmond South Africa  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:45 Manampatra Madagascar  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:45 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 17:45 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 20:45 Boesmansriviermond South Africa  0.2
12 Mar 2019 10:45 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 19:30 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 19:30 Panaca Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 19:30 Tama Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 19:45 Nhangau Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 18:15 Damiao Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 19:45 Jonja Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 18:45 Bevatry Madagascar  0.2
10 Mar 2019 18:45 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 04:00 Machesse Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 20:45 Kasouga South Africa  0.2
12 Mar 2019 04:00 Rupia Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 20:00 Bingue Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 18:15 Divinhe Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 18:15 Chiloane Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 11:15 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 11:15 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 11:15 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:45 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:45 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.2
09 Mar 2019 21:00 Port Alfred South Africa  0.2
12 Mar 2019 11:30 Mulia Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 18:30 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 11:30 Barra Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 11:00 Amado Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 11:45 Mkadini Tanzania  0.2
11 Mar 2019 11:45 Kigongoni Tanzania  0.2
11 Mar 2019 11:45 Bagamoyo Tanzania  0.2
09 Mar 2019 17:45 Laisse Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 17:45 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 17:45 Jo Mozambique  0.2
09 Mar 2019 17:45 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 10:15 Tomodo Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 10:15 Mutiba Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 03:30 Caliua Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 03:30 Raraga Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 03:30 Metapa Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 10:30 Manomba Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 10:30 Belailay Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 10:30 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 09:15 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 10:00 Ocone Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:00 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 12:30 Namacoto Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 12:30 Namuali Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 04:00 Chululu Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 04:00 Caramaca Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:00 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 17:00 Maintirano Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 03:45 Mutadua Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 03:45 Murrumuana Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:00 Baly Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:00 Soalala Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 17:30 Catembe Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 17:30 Joannisse Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 17:30 Maziba Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 11:15 Magromane Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 03:30 Moebase Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 21:45 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 21:45 Mendozo Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:00 Bumbwini Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:00 Zanzibar Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:00 Kiembi Samaki Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:00 Bet-el-Mali Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:00 Donge Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:00 Kibele Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 03:45 Morrua Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 03:45 Carramali Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 03:45 Pebane Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Mchamba Wima Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 03:15 Namorre Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:00 Sadani Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 03:30 Coropoa Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 22:30 Napito Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 17:45 Natalia Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 12:30 Larde Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:15 Andanivato Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:15 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 18:15 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 18:15 Andramy Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 18:15 Marotaola Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:30 Andemba Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:30 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:30 Reharaka Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 16:15 Nantapa Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 16:15 Muaco Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 16:15 Quinga Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 16:15 Metula Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Mkwaja Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 03:30 Natiquinde Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 03:15 Mocareja Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 03:15 Kawi Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 03:15 Konduchi Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 03:15 Kipara Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 03:15 Dar es Salaam Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 03:15 Msasani Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 03:15 Magogoni Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 03:15 Mjimwema Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 03:15 Mboamaji Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 03:15 Bandarini Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 03:15 Kutani Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Mkokotoni Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Fumba Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 03:30 Bajone Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Bwereu Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:00 Mbweni Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:00 Doriya Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 14:00 Morondava Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 14:00 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 14:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 14:00 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 17:45 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 17:45 Afonso Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 17:45 Catine Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 17:45 Asneira Mozambique  0.1
09 Mar 2019 17:45 Manometimay Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 17:45 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 18:45 Quissanga Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 18:45 Pangome Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 18:45 Arimba Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 18:45 Tavari Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Banda Kuu Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 15:45 Kilindoni Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 03:45 Uzi Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 03:45 Mapopwe Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 03:45 Chwaka Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 03:45 Kitogani Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 03:45 Kijini Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:15 Namelala Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:15 Capelelene Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:15 Nhiendgi Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:15 Maaia Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:15 Nangata Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:15 Chepa Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:15 Matiquite Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:15 Minhauine Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 18:30 Andamoty Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 18:30 Madirobe Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 18:30 Ampapamena Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Sakura Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:45 Memba Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:45 Muanua Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:45 Nampuita Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:45 Formone Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:45 Macalopa Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 12:45 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 15:45 Magawa Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 15:45 Msindaji Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 15:45 Mchungu Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 15:45 Kiombani Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:45 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:45 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:45 Andramasay Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 10:45 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:30 Ushongo Mabaoni Tanzania  0.1
09 Mar 2019 23:30 Iambaro Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 23:30 Ambazoamazava Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 23:30 Ambazoa Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 23:30 Ankazomanitsy Madagascar  0.1
09 Mar 2019 23:30 Beaniky Madagascar  0.1

Calculation folder at this link