Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDAI-19
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDAI-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Mozambique
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 158 km/h
Maximum storm surge 1.8 m (14 Mar 16:15 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 158 km/h 1.8 m 548 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 176 km/h 3.1 m 1256 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 13 Mar 2019 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMozambique994094 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 08 Mar 2019 12:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 09 Mar 2019 00:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 09 Mar 2019 12:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 10 Mar 2019 12:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 11 Mar 2019 00:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 11 Mar 2019 12:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 12 Mar 2019 00:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 12 Mar 2019 12:00 176 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 13 Mar 2019 00:00 158 -
- - - - - Mozambique




Impact estimation for the next 72h

Rainfall

1256 mm

Up to 3.9 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 13 Mar 2019 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
500-750 mmMozambique, Zimbabwe482
+
Mozambique335 
Zimbabwe147 
250-500 mmMozambique, Zimbabwe694784
+
Mozambique628633 
Zimbabwe66151 
100-250 mmMozambique, Zimbabwe3186384
+
Mozambique1871556 
Zimbabwe1314828 
50-100 mmTanzania, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe1928399
+
Tanzania23813 
Democratic Republic of the Congo9 
Malawi7286 
Mozambique727668 
Zimbabwe1169623 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 08 Mar 2019 12:00 721 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 09 Mar 2019 00:00 678 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 09 Mar 2019 12:00 764 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 919 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 10 Mar 2019 12:00 918 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 11 Mar 2019 00:00 725 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 11 Mar 2019 12:00 556 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 12 Mar 2019 00:00 585 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 12 Mar 2019 12:00 522 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 13 Mar 2019 00:00 548 3.9 million
- - Tanzania, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

1.8 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  1.8m in Nhangau, Mozambique. This height is estimated for 14 Mar 2019 16:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 13 Mar 2019 00:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
14 Mar 2019 16:15 Nhangau Mozambique  1.8
14 Mar 2019 16:15 Chofandicho Mozambique  1.8
14 Mar 2019 16:15 Panaca Mozambique  1.8
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Damiao Mozambique  1.8
14 Mar 2019 15:30 Tama Mozambique  1.8
14 Mar 2019 19:00 Nova Sofala Mozambique  1.6
14 Mar 2019 15:30 Jonja Mozambique  1.5
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Divinhe Mozambique  1.1
14 Mar 2019 18:30 Chiloane Mozambique  1.1
14 Mar 2019 13:30 Bingue Mozambique  0.9
14 Mar 2019 10:30 Machesse Mozambique  0.8
14 Mar 2019 10:30 Rupia Mozambique  0.7
14 Mar 2019 06:30 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.6
14 Mar 2019 16:45 Jo Mozambique  0.5
14 Mar 2019 16:45 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.5
14 Mar 2019 17:15 Laisse Mozambique  0.5
14 Mar 2019 17:15 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.5
14 Mar 2019 17:15 Natalia Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 03:30 Amado Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 21:15 Inhassoro Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 21:15 Afonso Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 21:15 Catine Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 21:15 Caulino Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 21:15 Mariano Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 21:15 Asneira Mozambique  0.3
14 Mar 2019 03:30 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 19:30 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 20:00 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 19:45 Mulia Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 01:00 Colchester South Africa  0.2
13 Mar 2019 19:30 Barra Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 00:45 Chululu Mozambique  0.2
14 Mar 2019 16:30 Castigo Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 11:45 Ocone Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 11:45 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 01:45 Namuali Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 01:45 Nantapa Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 00:45 Mocareja Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 12:00 Tomodo Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 12:00 Mutiba Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 12:15 Magromane Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 12:15 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 12:15 Mendozo Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 10:30 Memba Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 10:30 Muanua Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 10:30 Ecota Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 10:30 Formone Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 10:30 Capelelene Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 10:30 Nhiendgi Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 10:30 Nangata Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 10:30 Chepa Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 12:15 Caliua Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 01:00 Napito Mozambique  0.2
13 Mar 2019 07:30 Muaco Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 05:15 Macashale Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 05:15 Macanzele Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 21:45 Xetoquica Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 21:45 Vilanculos Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 02:15 Richmond South Africa  0.1
13 Mar 2019 02:15 Boesmansriviermond South Africa  0.1
13 Mar 2019 02:15 Kasouga South Africa  0.1
13 Mar 2019 18:45 Beula Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 18:45 Morrumbene Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 18:45 Mabsil Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 18:45 Marivate Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 18:45 Miramar Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 18:00 Raraga Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 21:45 Chichocane Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 21:45 China Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 21:45 Mahoa Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 05:30 Metapa Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 03:15 Mutadua Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 03:15 Murrumuana Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 02:30 Momade Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 02:30 Metopa Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 02:30 Natiquinde Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 04:15 Quinga Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 04:15 Metula Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 02:00 Pebane Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 12:30 Port Shepstone South Africa  0.1
13 Mar 2019 12:30 Glanfield South Africa  0.1
13 Mar 2019 12:30 Mtwalume South Africa  0.1
13 Mar 2019 12:30 Sezela South Africa  0.1
13 Mar 2019 01:00 Caramaca Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 00:00 Port Alfred South Africa  0.1
13 Mar 2019 01:15 Moebase Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 22:00 Uetela Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 02:30 Namacoto Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 05:00 Bambe Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 05:00 Afo Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 17:30 Nampuita Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 06:15 Fabiao Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 03:15 Inhambane Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 03:15 Banga Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 03:15 Praia do Tofo Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 05:00 Maguemba Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 02:00 Ali Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 02:00 Injaca Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 02:00 Terrene Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 02:00 Calajulo Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 02:00 Mosengeri Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 07:00 Namorre Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 17:30 Morrua Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 17:30 Carramali Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 05:15 Coropoa Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 07:45 Sima Comoros  0.1
13 Mar 2019 07:45 Marahare Comoros  0.1
13 Mar 2019 07:45 Bandani Comoros  0.1
13 Mar 2019 07:45 Mutsamudu Comoros  0.1
13 Mar 2019 07:45 Ouani Comoros  0.1
13 Mar 2019 07:45 Moya Comoros  0.1
13 Mar 2019 07:45 Matsamudu Comoros  0.1
13 Mar 2019 07:45 Moujou Comoros  0.1
13 Mar 2019 07:45 M'Remani Comoros  0.1
13 Mar 2019 07:45 Bambao Comoros  0.1
13 Mar 2019 12:00 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 10:45 Lumbo Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 10:45 Mocambique Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 12:00 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 01:00 Ambohitrabo Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 01:00 Ambatomilo Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 01:00 Bekodoy Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 01:00 Salary Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:15 Marovazha Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:15 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:15 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 13:00 Manampea Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 13:00 Antsafy Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 07:30 Morombe Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 16:15 Mkadini Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 16:15 Kigongoni Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 16:15 Bagamoyo Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 12:15 Atolo Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 12:15 Morumequina Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 12:15 Murrebue Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 12:15 Mecufi Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 12:15 Luguni Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 18:45 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 12:45 Barroa Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 12:45 Coluvelane Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 13:45 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 13:45 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 13:45 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 02:15 Willow Park South Africa  0.1
13 Mar 2019 02:15 East London South Africa  0.1
13 Mar 2019 02:15 Gonubie Mouth South Africa  0.1
13 Mar 2019 03:45 Siane Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 04:15 Bekoropoka Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 04:15 Ambohibe Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 08:30 Guiducua Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 05:30 Andranopasy Madagascar  0.1
14 Mar 2019 02:30 Bajone Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 05:15 Larde Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 03:00 Guilande Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 03:00 Ingale Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 02:45 Gueima Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:00 Marofototra Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:00 Voalavo Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 02:45 La Lucia South Africa  0.1
13 Mar 2019 02:45 Selection Beach South Africa  0.1
13 Mar 2019 02:45 La Mercy South Africa  0.1
13 Mar 2019 02:45 Fraser South Africa  0.1
15 Mar 2019 15:45 Kilifi Kenya  0.1
15 Mar 2019 15:45 Takaungu Kenya  0.1
15 Mar 2019 15:45 Matsangoni Kenya  0.1
13 Mar 2019 12:15 Namelala Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 12:15 Maaia Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 12:15 Matiquite Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 12:15 Minhauine Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 01:30 Domoni Comoros  0.1
13 Mar 2019 01:30 Mitsamiouli Comoros  0.1
13 Mar 2019 01:30 Ifoundihe Comoros  0.1
13 Mar 2019 01:30 Chezani Comoros  0.1
13 Mar 2019 19:00 Ambato Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 06:30 Appontement Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 06:30 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 06:30 Soahazo Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 08:15 Isipingo South Africa  0.1
13 Mar 2019 08:15 Westville South Africa  0.1
13 Mar 2019 08:15 Bayhead South Africa  0.1
13 Mar 2019 08:15 Kwa-Mashu South Africa  0.1
13 Mar 2019 08:15 Durban South Africa  0.1
13 Mar 2019 08:15 Addington South Africa  0.1
13 Mar 2019 06:30 Naidooville South Africa  0.1
13 Mar 2019 06:30 Umkomaas South Africa  0.1
13 Mar 2019 06:30 Amanzimtoti South Africa  0.1
13 Mar 2019 06:30 Kingsborough South Africa  0.1
13 Mar 2019 00:15 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 04:15 Guinjala Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 08:15 Metuge Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 08:15 Mussange Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 08:15 Acache Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 08:15 Porto Amelia Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 08:15 Messequero Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 08:15 Tari Mozambique  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:15 Gazi Kenya  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:15 Ukunda Kenya  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:15 Tiwi Kenya  0.1
14 Mar 2019 19:15 Waa Kenya  0.1
13 Mar 2019 06:45 Bulawa South Africa  0.1
13 Mar 2019 06:45 Gcwaleni South Africa  0.1
13 Mar 2019 06:45 Umngazi Mouth South Africa  0.1
13 Mar 2019 06:45 Umzimvubu South Africa  0.1
13 Mar 2019 18:30 Catembe Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 18:30 Joannisse Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 18:30 Maziba Mozambique  0.1
13 Mar 2019 10:00 Accua Mayotte  0.1
13 Mar 2019 10:00 Moliha Mayotte  0.1
13 Mar 2019 10:00 Dzoumogne Mayotte  0.1
13 Mar 2019 10:00 Longoni Mayotte  0.1
13 Mar 2019 02:45 Fish River Camping Site South Africa  0.1
13 Mar 2019 02:45 Mpekweni South Africa  0.1
13 Mar 2019 15:45 Mchamba Wima Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 03:00 Begha Mouth South Africa  0.1
13 Mar 2019 12:45 Mkoe Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 12:45 Ruvu Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 12:45 Mchinga Tanzania  0.1
13 Mar 2019 15:45 Kijipwa Kenya  0.1
13 Mar 2019 15:45 Kijangwani Kenya  0.1
13 Mar 2019 07:00 Manomba Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 07:00 Belailay Madagascar  0.1
13 Mar 2019 07:00 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.1

Calculation folder at this link