Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for PAWAN-19 in Somalia, Ethiopia from 03 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC to 07 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PAWAN-19

in Somalia, Ethiopia

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAWAN-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Somalia
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	97 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (04 Dec 11:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Somalia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	97 km/h	0.3 m	139 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	97 km/h	0.3 m	583 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

97 km/h

Up to 100 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Somalia	104,063

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	03 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	03 Dec 2019 06:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	03 Dec 2019 12:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	03 Dec 2019 18:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	04 Dec 2019 00:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	04 Dec 2019 06:00	97	-		-	-	-	-	-	Somalia

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Somalia	183,424
50-100 mm	Yemen, Somalia, Ethiopia	273,085	+
	Yemen	29,983
	Somalia	239,135
	Ethiopia	3,967

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	03 Dec 2019 00:00	246	-		-	-	-	-	-	Other countries
2	03 Dec 2019 06:00	144	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	03 Dec 2019 12:00	135	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	03 Dec 2019 18:00	162	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	04 Dec 2019 00:00	182	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	04 Dec 2019 06:00	238	180 thousand			-	-	-	-	Yemen, Somalia, Ethiopia

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in 'Ag, Somalia. This height is estimated for 04 Dec 2019 11:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 04 Dec 2019 06:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	04 Dec 2019 11:45	'Ag	Somalia	0.3
	04 Dec 2019 06:15	Baarbacadle	Somalia	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 06:15	Eyl	Somalia	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 06:15	Daga Laha Uein	Somalia	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 11:15	Beylu	Eritrea	0.2
	04 Dec 2019 10:00	Rehayto	Eritrea	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 09:15	Harag Jid	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 12:00	Boho	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 12:00	Wareegsimo	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 12:00	Bereeda	Somalia	0.1
	04 Dec 2019 10:45	Bola Cohuan	Somalia	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.