Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for BLAKE-20 in Australia from 05 Jan 2020 18:00 UTC to 08 Jan 2020 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BLAKE-20

in Australia

07 Jan 2020 12 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BLAKE-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries	Australia
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	72 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.6 m (08 Jan 01:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	72 km/h	0.6 m	166 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	126 km/h	0.9 m	539 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

126 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Jan 2020 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Australia	986

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	05 Jan 2020 00:00	94	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
2	05 Jan 2020 12:00	76	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
3	06 Jan 2020 00:00	83	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
4	06 Jan 2020 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	07 Jan 2020 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	07 Jan 2020 12:00	112	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Jan 2020 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Australia	41
100-250 mm	Indonesia, Australia	1,440,134	+
	Indonesia	1,432,313
	Australia	7,821
50-100 mm	Indonesia, Australia	5,230,409	+
	Indonesia	5,221,343
	Australia	9,066

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	05 Jan 2020 00:00	309	Few people	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Timor-Leste, Australia
2	05 Jan 2020 12:00	242	Few people	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
3	06 Jan 2020 00:00	161	10 thousand	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
4	06 Jan 2020 12:00	108	Few people	-	-	-	-	Australia
5	07 Jan 2020 00:00	185	Few people	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia
6	07 Jan 2020 12:00	654	1.4 million		-	-	-	Indonesia, Australia

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.6m in Derby, Australia. This height is estimated for 08 Jan 2020 01:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 07 Jan 2020 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	08 Jan 2020 01:15	Derby	Australia	0.6
	07 Jan 2020 19:15	Thangoo	Australia	0.4
	07 Jan 2020 19:30	Broome	Australia	0.3
	07 Jan 2020 19:45	Waterbank	Australia	0.3
	07 Jan 2020 19:00	Kennedys Cottage	Australia	0.3
	07 Jan 2020 22:00	Kollan I	Australia	0.2
	07 Jan 2020 19:00	Pender	Australia	0.2
	08 Jan 2020 16:00	Pardoo	Australia	0.2
	08 Jan 2020 16:00	Condon	Australia	0.2
	09 Jan 2020 01:45	Sidaju	Indonesia	0.2
	09 Jan 2020 09:45	Port Hedland	Australia	0.1
	09 Jan 2020 02:00	Aermata	Indonesia	0.1
	09 Jan 2020 02:00	Klampis	Indonesia	0.1
	09 Jan 2020 02:00	Sapulu	Indonesia	0.1
	09 Jan 2020 02:45	Tlagabiru	Indonesia	0.1
	09 Jan 2020 02:45	Banjoeates	Indonesia	0.1
	09 Jan 2020 02:15	Ketapang	Indonesia	0.1
	09 Jan 2020 02:15	Kelapang	Indonesia	0.1
	09 Jan 2020 03:15	Ambunten-timu	Indonesia	0.1
	09 Jan 2020 03:15	Belukares	Indonesia	0.1
	09 Jan 2020 03:15	Sumenep	Indonesia	0.1
	09 Jan 2020 02:00	Sangkapura	Indonesia	0.1
	09 Jan 2020 01:45	Tambak	Indonesia	0.1
	09 Jan 2020 03:00	Sokabana	Indonesia	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.