Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for FRANCISCO-20 in Madagascar, Mauritius, from 04 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC to 14 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20

in Madagascar, Mauritius,

05 Feb 2020 06 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	112 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (05 Feb 11:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	112 km/h	0.3 m	192 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	112 km/h	0.5 m	707 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 05 Feb 2020 06:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 05 Feb 2020 06:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Madagascar	24,236

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	157	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	197	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	464	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Analanampotsy, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 05 Feb 2020 11:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 05 Feb 2020 06:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	05 Feb 2020 11:45	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 11:45	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 11:45	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 11:45	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 11:45	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 11:45	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 11:45	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 11:45	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 10:00	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 11:45	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 12:00	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 12:00	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 12:00	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 10:15	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 10:00	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 10:00	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 10:00	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 12:00	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 10:00	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 10:00	Moravano	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 08:15	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 08:15	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 10:15	Manomba	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 10:15	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 10:15	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 11:30	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 11:30	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 12:00	Manompana	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 07:30	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 10:15	Belailay	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Feb 2020 12:00	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 12:00	Manambato	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 08:00	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 08:00	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 11:45	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 11:45	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 06:30	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 06:30	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 06:30	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 06:30	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 06:30	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 06:30	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 08:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 10:15	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 10:15	Andemba	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 08:15	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 08:45	Ambato	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 08:45	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 08:45	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 08:45	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 08:45	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 06:15	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 06:15	Benjana	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 10:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 10:00	Kivalo Est	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 08:30	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 11:00	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 11:00	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 11:00	Namahoaka	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 07:30	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 07:30	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 10:00	Morondava	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 10:00	Antserananbondro	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 07:45	Andriana	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 07:45	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 07:45	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 07:45	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 07:45	Ambolikapika	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 07:45	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 06:30	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 08:15	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 09:45	Appontement	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 09:45	Ankoadavo	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 11:30	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 11:30	Ambatofitarafana	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 11:30	Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 11:30	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 11:30	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 11:30	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 11:00	Mahatsara	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 07:00	Ambodiadabo	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 07:00	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 07:00	Analalava	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 07:00	Androlavy	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 07:00	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 11:15	Behavoa	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 11:15	Befamata	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 11:15	Zavo	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 08:15	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 08:00	Marovazha	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 07:45	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 10:00	Soahanina	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 10:00	Tamotamo	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 10:30	Tambohorano	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 10:30	Ambatomilahy	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 10:30	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 10:30	Ankazobe	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 10:30	Manampea	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 10:00	Ampanihy	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 10:00	Reharaka	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Feb 2020 11:00	Foulpointe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 06:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 06:00	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 08:15	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 08:15	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 08:15	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 06:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 06:00	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 09:45	Manometimay	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 09:45	Antsamaka	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 11:00	Lavanono	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 10:30	Antsafy	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 10:30	Onara	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 07:45	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 11:45	Mananara	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 08:00	Andranira	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 08:00	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 08:00	Mandrorohabe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 08:00	Mailakapasy	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 08:00	Antsahampano	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 08:45	Ampanakana	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 08:45	Fararano	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 08:45	Ambanisanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 08:45	Antsorokaka	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 08:45	Ambatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 08:45	Antanifatsy	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 08:45	Mahatsaborimaika	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 07:15	Andranovoribe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 11:00	Ampataka	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 11:00	Amboboka	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 11:00	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 11:00	Tsivala	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 08:00	Antotoro	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 08:00	Ampohana	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 08:00	Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 08:15	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 07:30	Bawala	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 07:30	Olumbe	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 07:30	Boala	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 07:30	Maganja	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 07:00	Mandrony	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 07:00	Maromokotra	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 07:00	Maromanjo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 07:00	Madirotelo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 07:00	Marokitrana	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 07:00	Ampiambesa	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 07:00	Bevoay	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 07:00	Antetezampolaka	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 07:00	Maromandia	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 07:15	Vila de Mocimboa da Praia	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 07:15	Libambai	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 07:15	Meronvi	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 07:00	Antananabe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 07:00	Bejongoro	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 07:00	Ampandrano	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 07:00	Andrafialava	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 07:00	Andamoty	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 07:15	Quissengue	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 07:45	Ankoakala	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 07:45	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 12:00	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 12:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 07:15	Ampasimpilily	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 07:15	Anompaka	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 09:00	Mangaoka	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 09:00	Ilomotro	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 09:00	Andohonko	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 09:00	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 12:00	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 08:15	Ambohimena	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 12:00	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 07:45	Ampitilova	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 07:45	Antsianitia	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 07:45	Ambondrombe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 07:45	Ankilahila	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 11:00	Bevoalavo Est	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 09:15	Antsisikala	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 09:15	Antsahalalina	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 09:15	Andranovondronina	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 09:15	Betsimiranja	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 09:15	Ambinanililabe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 09:15	Antseranana	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 09:15	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 09:15	Andasoa	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 09:15	Amoronjia-Orangea	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 09:15	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 12:00	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 07:30	Mtwara	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 07:30	Msangamkuu	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 07:30	Msimbati	Tanzania	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 12:00	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 11:30	Ampalaza	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 06:45	Singalana	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 06:45	Antetikireja	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 06:45	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 06:45	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 06:45	Ankinganifahatelo	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 07:00	Anjiamalandy	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 07:00	Anorotsangana	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 12:00	Ambatoharana	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 12:00	Vinanivao	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 07:30	Ankazomalemy	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 07:30	Fadrina	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 07:30	Bobasakoa	Madagascar	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 08:30	Quinga	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 08:30	Metula	Mozambique	0.1
	05 Feb 2020 07:45	Marovato	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.