Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for THREE-21 in Philippines from 12 May 2021 18:00 UTC to 14 May 2021 12:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for THREE-21

in Philippines

14 May 2021 18 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone THREE-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	40 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (16 May 11:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Philippines)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	40 km/h	0.3 m	26 mm	0.5
HWRF Overall	40 km/h	0.6 m	102 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

40 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 14 May 2021 18:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	12 May 2021 18:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	13 May 2021 00:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	13 May 2021 06:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	13 May 2021 12:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	13 May 2021 18:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	14 May 2021 00:00	43	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	14 May 2021 06:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	14 May 2021 12:00	43	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	14 May 2021 18:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 14 May 2021 18:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Malaysia	4,252
100-250 mm	Philippines, Malaysia	74,570	+
	Philippines	20,746
	Malaysia	53,824
50-100 mm	Philippines, Malaysia	329,499	+
	Philippines	220,033
	Malaysia	109,465

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	12 May 2021 18:00	276	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	13 May 2021 00:00	163	-		-	-	-	-	-	Philippines
3	13 May 2021 06:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	13 May 2021 12:00	169	10 thousand			-	-	-	-	Philippines
5	13 May 2021 18:00	113	2 thousand			-	-	-	-	Philippines
6	14 May 2021 00:00	115	9 thousand			-	-	-	-	Philippines
7	14 May 2021 06:00	177	150 thousand			-	-	-	-	Philippines
8	14 May 2021 12:00	41	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	14 May 2021 18:00	471	80 thousand				-	-	-	Philippines, Malaysia

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Pag-aguasan, Philippines. This height is estimated for 16 May 2021 11:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 14 May 2021 18:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	16 May 2021 11:30	Pag-aguasan	Philippines	0.3
	16 May 2021 11:30	Concepcion	Philippines	0.3
	16 May 2021 11:30	Alabat	Philippines	0.3
	16 May 2021 11:30	Mascarina	Philippines	0.3
	16 May 2021 11:30	Apad	Philippines	0.3
	16 May 2021 11:30	Gumaca	Philippines	0.3
	16 May 2021 11:30	Argosino	Philippines	0.3
	16 May 2021 11:30	Lopez	Philippines	0.3
	16 May 2021 11:30	Talingting	Philippines	0.3
	16 May 2021 11:30	Calauag	Philippines	0.3
	16 May 2021 11:30	Atimonan	Philippines	0.3
	16 May 2021 11:30	Calaguikhik	Philippines	0.3
	16 May 2021 11:30	Perez	Philippines	0.3
	16 May 2021 11:30	Cavilla	Philippines	0.3
	16 May 2021 11:30	San Jose	Philippines	0.2
	16 May 2021 11:30	Calamias	Philippines	0.2
	16 May 2021 11:30	Mauban	Philippines	0.2
	14 May 2021 23:45	Paracale	Philippines	0.2
	14 May 2021 23:45	Vinzons	Philippines	0.2
	14 May 2021 23:45	Daet	Philippines	0.2
	14 May 2021 23:45	Talaga	Philippines	0.2
	14 May 2021 23:45	Tagontong	Philippines	0.2
	14 May 2021 23:45	Mambongalon	Philippines	0.2
	15 May 2021 16:15	Barana	Philippines	0.1
	15 May 2021 16:15	Miguel	Philippines	0.1
	16 May 2021 22:00	Mandurriao	Philippines	0.1
	16 May 2021 22:00	Iloilo	Philippines	0.1
	16 May 2021 22:00	Jordan	Philippines	0.1
	16 May 2021 22:00	Jaro	Philippines	0.1
	16 May 2021 22:00	Avila	Philippines	0.1
	16 May 2021 22:00	Valencia	Philippines	0.1
	16 May 2021 22:00	Talisay	Philippines	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:45	Tarawaken	Philippines	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:45	Malaka	Philippines	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:45	Bakung	Philippines	0.1
	14 May 2021 22:00	Barceloneta	Philippines	0.1
	14 May 2021 22:00	Mandao	Philippines	0.1
	14 May 2021 22:00	Fundado	Philippines	0.1
	14 May 2021 22:00	Karigsa	Philippines	0.1
	14 May 2021 22:00	Calabanga	Philippines	0.1
	14 May 2021 22:00	Magtang	Philippines	0.1
	14 May 2021 22:00	Lamon	Philippines	0.1
	14 May 2021 22:00	Union	Philippines	0.1
	14 May 2021 22:00	Tinambac	Philippines	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:45	Bago	Philippines	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:45	Pangi	Philippines	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:45	Pequeno	Philippines	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:45	Davao	Philippines	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:45	Kumonal	Philippines	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:45	Lasang	Philippines	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:45	Limao	Philippines	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:45	Panabo	Philippines	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:45	Basao	Philippines	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:45	Samal	Philippines	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:45	Tagbitanag	Philippines	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:45	Aumbay	Philippines	0.1
	14 May 2021 23:45	Tandoc	Philippines	0.1
	15 May 2021 00:00	San Vicente	Philippines	0.1
	15 May 2021 00:00	Gongonan	Philippines	0.1
	15 May 2021 03:30	Mapid	Philippines	0.1
	15 May 2021 03:15	Balaton	Philippines	0.1
	14 May 2021 20:30	Kumbatang	Malaysia	0.1
	14 May 2021 20:30	Langkon	Malaysia	0.1
	14 May 2021 20:30	Kampong Radus	Malaysia	0.1
	14 May 2021 20:30	Tandek	Malaysia	0.1
	14 May 2021 20:30	Taritapan	Malaysia	0.1
	14 May 2021 20:30	Kpg Mempakad	Malaysia	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:30	Hiju	Philippines	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:30	Pandasan	Philippines	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:30	Maco	Philippines	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:30	Tibagon	Philippines	0.1
	15 May 2021 12:30	Pantukan	Philippines	0.1
	15 May 2021 03:15	Garchitorena	Philippines	0.1
	14 May 2021 20:45	Sipitang	Malaysia	0.1
	14 May 2021 20:45	Kampong Suasa	Malaysia	0.1
	14 May 2021 20:45	Mesapol	Malaysia	0.1
	14 May 2021 20:45	Weston	Malaysia	0.1
	17 May 2021 13:45	Kampong Kolapis	Malaysia	0.1
	17 May 2021 13:45	Kampong Samawang	Malaysia	0.1
	16 May 2021 04:00	Kampong Madang Pimping	Malaysia	0.1
	16 May 2021 04:00	Bongawan	Malaysia	0.1
	16 May 2021 04:00	Kimania	Malaysia	0.1
	16 May 2021 04:00	Kampong Java	Malaysia	0.1
	16 May 2021 04:00	Papar	Malaysia	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.