Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for RICK-21
in Mexico
24 Oct 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone RICK-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 115 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (24 Oct 12:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 115 km/h 0.2 m 141 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 162 km/h 0.7 m 471 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

162 km/h

Up to 10 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 24 Oct 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico14,955 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 22 Oct 2021 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 22 Oct 2021 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 23 Oct 2021 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 23 Oct 2021 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 23 Oct 2021 12:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 23 Oct 2021 18:00 122 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 24 Oct 2021 00:00 133 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 24 Oct 2021 06:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 24 Oct 2021 12:00 137 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 24 Oct 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico445,877 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico1,393,006
+
United States422,097 
Mexico970,909 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 22 Oct 2021 12:00 104 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 22 Oct 2021 18:00 99 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 23 Oct 2021 00:00 93 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 23 Oct 2021 06:00 166 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 23 Oct 2021 12:00 114 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 23 Oct 2021 18:00 114 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 24 Oct 2021 00:00 186 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 24 Oct 2021 06:00 116 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 24 Oct 2021 12:00 508 450 thousand
- - - - United States, Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Cedar Point, United States. This height is estimated for 24 Oct 2021 12:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 24 Oct 2021 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
24 Oct 2021 12:45 Cedar Point United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 12:45 Beach City United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 12:45 Oak Island United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 12:45 Anahuac United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 13:00 Morgan's Point United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 13:00 Red Bluff United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 13:00 Seabrook United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 13:00 Morgan Point United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 13:00 Baytown United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 13:00 Pelly United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 13:00 Smith Point United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 18:00 Johnson's Bayou United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 18:00 Constance Beach United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 18:00 Peveto Beach United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 18:00 Holly Beach United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 12:00 Webster United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 12:00 Clear Lake City United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 12:00 Nassau Bay United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 12:00 Kilkare United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 12:00 Lakeside United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 12:00 Taylor Lake United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 12:00 La Porte United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 12:00 El Lago United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 12:00 Clear Lake Shores United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 12:00 Kemah United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 12:00 Shoreacres United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 12:00 Bayside Terrace United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 12:00 Todville United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 12:00 Bayview United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 12:00 Bacliff United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 12:00 San Leon United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 18:00 Cameron United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 18:00 Sabine United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 18:00 Sabine Pass United States  0.2
24 Oct 2021 12:00 Nadeau United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 12:00 Texas City Junction United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 12:00 Bayou Vista United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 12:00 Texas City United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 12:00 Port Bolivar United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 12:00 Fort Travis United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 12:00 Flake United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 12:00 Elmgrove United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 12:00 Crystal Beach United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 12:00 Patton United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 18:00 La Choya Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2021 18:00 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2021 12:00 Sixmile United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 12:00 Port Lavaca United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 12:00 Alamo Beach United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 12:00 Point Comfort United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 12:00 Magnolia Beach United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 12:00 Olivia United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 12:00 Weedhaven United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 12:00 Port Alto United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 18:00 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2021 17:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2021 18:00 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2021 18:00 High Island United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 13:00 El Roble Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2021 16:30 Solo Dios Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2021 13:30 Pesqueria Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2021 13:30 San Francisco del Mar Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2021 18:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2021 18:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2021 16:30 Buenavista Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2021 18:00 El Desemboque Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2021 18:00 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2021 13:30 San Dionisio del Mar Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2021 13:30 La Majada Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2021 17:30 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2021 17:30 Monteon Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2021 17:30 La Lima Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2021 13:15 Anderson Ways United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 13:15 Virginia Point United States  0.1
24 Oct 2021 13:15 Galveston United States  0.1