Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for ROSLYN-22
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ROSLYN-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population 50 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 112 km/h
Maximum storm surge
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 112 km/h n.a. 189 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 216 km/h 0.5 m 483 mm 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

216 km/h

Up to 600 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 Oct 2022 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 2Mexico5,633 
CAT. 1Mexico41,370 
Tropical StormMexico597,366 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 20 Oct 2022 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 20 Oct 2022 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 20 Oct 2022 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 20 Oct 2022 18:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 21 Oct 2022 00:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 21 Oct 2022 06:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 21 Oct 2022 12:00 191 3 thousand
- - - Mexico
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Impact estimation for the next 72h




Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 Oct 2022 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico144,248 
50-100 mmMexico674,930 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 20 Oct 2022 00:00 248 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 2 20 Oct 2022 06:00 400 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 20 Oct 2022 12:00 286 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 20 Oct 2022 18:00 224 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 21 Oct 2022 00:00 160 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 21 Oct 2022 06:00 232 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 21 Oct 2022 12:00 597 50 thousand
- - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

No locations affected by storm surge > 10 cm

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 21 Oct 2022 12:00 UTC
    

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