Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for KELVIN-18 in Australia from 16 Feb 2018 06:00 UTC to 18 Feb 2018 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KELVIN-18

in Australia

16 Feb 2018 12 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KELVIN-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries	Australia
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	74 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (18 Feb 15:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	74 km/h	0.4 m	n.a.	0.5
HWRF Overall	142 km/h	1.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

142 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 Feb 2018 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Australia	308

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
	1	16 Feb 2018 06:00	67	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
	2	16 Feb 2018 12:00	74	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 16 Feb 2018 12:00 UTC

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
	1	16 Feb 2018 06:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
	2	16 Feb 2018 12:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Thangoo, Australia. This height is estimated for 18 Feb 2018 15:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 16 Feb 2018 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	18 Feb 2018 15:00	Thangoo	Australia	0.4
	16 Feb 2018 14:15	Derby	Australia	0.4
	18 Feb 2018 15:00	Broome	Australia	0.4
	17 Feb 2018 22:30	Waterbank	Australia	0.3
	17 Feb 2018 22:00	Kennedys Cottage	Australia	0.3
	16 Feb 2018 16:45	Pender	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2018 03:15	Dampier	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2018 03:15	Karratha	Australia	0.2
	16 Feb 2018 18:15	Kollan I	Australia	0.2
	16 Feb 2018 12:15	Gunyulgup	Australia	0.2
	16 Feb 2018 12:15	Yallingup	Australia	0.2
	16 Feb 2018 12:15	Dunsborough	Australia	0.2
	16 Feb 2018 12:15	Quindalup	Australia	0.2
	16 Feb 2018 12:15	Milyeannup	Australia	0.2
	16 Feb 2018 18:15	East Lewis I	Australia	0.2
	16 Feb 2018 19:30	Pardoo	Australia	0.2
	16 Feb 2018 17:45	Port Hedland	Australia	0.2
	16 Feb 2018 12:15	Augusta	Australia	0.2
	16 Feb 2018 12:15	Hamelin Bay	Australia	0.2
	16 Feb 2018 19:45	Wickham	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 19:45	Point Samson	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 19:45	Cossack	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 19:45	Pagatan	Indonesia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 18:45	Condon	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 12:15	Windy Harbour	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 19:30	Setiroek	Indonesia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 12:00	Wonnerup	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 12:00	Ludlow	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 12:00	Dalyellup	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 12:00	Bunbury	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2018 00:45	Fannie Bay	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2018 00:45	Parap	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2018 00:45	Darwin	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2018 00:45	Nightcliff	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2018 00:45	Ludmilla	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2018 00:45	Bagot	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2018 00:45	Leanyer	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2018 00:45	Berrimah	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 15:00	Minarup	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 12:15	Gracetown	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 01:00	The Palms	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 01:00	Larrakeyah	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 01:00	Knuckeys Lagoon	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 18:45	Vasse	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 18:45	Broadwater	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 18:45	Busselton	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 19:00	Picton	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 19:00	Eaton	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 19:00	Australind	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 12:15	Parryville	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 12:15	Denmark	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 18:45	Mardie	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 12:00	Oakdale	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 12:00	Blimbing	Indonesia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 12:00	Dadapan	Indonesia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 12:00	Banyuwangi	Indonesia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 12:00	Banjuwangi	Indonesia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 12:00	Soega	Indonesia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 12:00	Gilimanuk	Indonesia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 12:00	Penginoeman	Indonesia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 12:00	Belimbingsari	Indonesia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 12:00	Tjandikesuma	Indonesia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 12:00	Banjoebiroe	Indonesia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 12:30	Kronkup	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 12:30	Bornholm	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 12:30	Torbay	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 12:30	Elleker	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 12:15	Youngs	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 20:15	Segintong	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 20:00	Kualalupak	Indonesia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 12:00	Gregory	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 12:00	Lynton	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 20:00	Pagetan	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 19:45	Tambakkarangan	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 19:45	Tabanio	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 19:45	Bawahalajung	Indonesia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 12:30	Albany	Australia	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.