Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for WILLA-18
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone WILLA-18 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population Few people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 201 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (23 Oct 22:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 201 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 0.5
HWRF Overall 269 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

274 km/h

Up to Few people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 Oct 2018 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Mexico22 
Tropical StormMexico251348 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 20 Oct 2018 06:00 167 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 20 Oct 2018 12:00 196 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 20 Oct 2018 18:00 182 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 21 Oct 2018 00:00 201 Few people
- - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 21 Oct 2018 00:00 UTC

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 20 Oct 2018 06:00 - - - - - - - -
Blue 2 20 Oct 2018 12:00 - - - - - - - -
Blue 3 20 Oct 2018 18:00 - - - - - - - -
Blue 4 21 Oct 2018 00:00 - - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Cuantla, Mexico. This height is estimated for 23 Oct 2018 22:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 21 Oct 2018 00:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
23 Oct 2018 22:30 Cuantla Mexico  0.3
23 Oct 2018 22:30 Cuamecate Mexico  0.3
23 Oct 2018 22:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.3
23 Oct 2018 01:30 Port Mansfield United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 00:00 Florida Mexico  0.2
24 Oct 2018 00:00 Mazatlan Mexico  0.2
24 Oct 2018 00:00 Barron Mexico  0.2
23 Oct 2018 22:45 Novillero Mexico  0.2
23 Oct 2018 20:15 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
23 Oct 2018 01:00 Yarborough United States  0.2
22 Oct 2018 12:45 Holly Beach United States  0.2
22 Oct 2018 12:45 Laguna Vista United States  0.2
22 Oct 2018 12:45 Laguna Heights United States  0.2
22 Oct 2018 12:45 Port Isabel United States  0.2
22 Oct 2018 12:45 Kopernik Shores United States  0.2
22 Oct 2018 12:45 South Padre Island United States  0.2
22 Oct 2018 12:45 Boca Chica United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 00:00 Anderson Ways United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 00:00 Virginia Point United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 00:00 Galveston United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 00:00 Port Bolivar United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 00:00 Fort Travis United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 00:00 Flake United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 00:00 Elmgrove United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 00:00 Crystal Beach United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 00:00 Patton United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 00:00 Bolivar Peninsula United States  0.2
23 Oct 2018 22:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.2
23 Oct 2018 22:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.2
23 Oct 2018 21:45 La Palmita Mexico  0.2
23 Oct 2018 21:45 Caimanero Mexico  0.2
23 Oct 2018 21:45 Jarilla Mexico  0.2
24 Oct 2018 00:00 Caplen United States  0.2
22 Oct 2018 12:30 Fraccionamiento Nuevo Leon Mexico  0.2
24 Oct 2018 00:00 Surfside United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 00:00 Mims United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 00:00 Surfside Beach United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 00:00 Hoskins United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 00:00 Port Morris United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 00:00 Red Fish Cove United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 00:00 Bay Harbor United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 00:00 Sea Isle United States  0.2
22 Oct 2018 00:15 San Blas Mexico  0.2
22 Oct 2018 00:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
23 Oct 2018 05:00 Peary Place United States  0.2
23 Oct 2018 05:00 Flour Bluff United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 00:00 Jamaica Beach United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 00:00 Valasco Heights United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 00:00 Freeport United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 00:00 Quintana United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 00:00 Texas City Junction United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 00:00 Bayou Vista United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 00:00 Texas City United States  0.2
23 Oct 2018 05:00 Caruthers Cove Colonia United States  0.2
23 Oct 2018 05:00 Port Ingleside United States  0.2
23 Oct 2018 05:00 Mustang Beach United States  0.2
23 Oct 2018 05:00 Port Aransas United States  0.2
21 Oct 2018 03:00 Conejo Mexico  0.2
21 Oct 2018 19:00 Pasito de la Senora Mexico  0.2
24 Oct 2018 00:00 Gulf Park United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 00:00 Hoskins United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 00:00 Bryan Beach United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 00:00 Indianola United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 00:00 Port O'Connor United States  0.2
23 Oct 2018 21:30 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.2
23 Oct 2018 23:45 Estes United States  0.2
23 Oct 2018 23:45 Rockport United States  0.2
23 Oct 2018 23:45 Shell Ridge United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 00:00 Fulton United States  0.2
21 Oct 2018 02:45 Buenavista Mexico  0.2
21 Oct 2018 02:45 Solo Dios Mexico  0.2
23 Oct 2018 18:00 Ingleside United States  0.2
23 Oct 2018 18:00 Kenney Lane West Colonia United States  0.2
23 Oct 2018 18:00 Indian Trails Lane Colonia United States  0.2
23 Oct 2018 18:00 Country Estates Colonia United States  0.2
23 Oct 2018 18:00 Aransas Pass United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 00:00 Matagorda United States  0.2
24 Oct 2018 00:00 Chinquapin United States  0.2
21 Oct 2018 03:45 La Florida Mexico  0.2
21 Oct 2018 10:00 Huajapan Mexico  0.2
21 Oct 2018 10:00 El Roble Mexico  0.2
21 Oct 2018 06:00 Boqueron Mexico  0.2
24 Oct 2018 00:00 Country Acres Colonia United States  0.2
21 Oct 2018 18:15 Salina Cruz Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 18:15 Lagarto Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 11:00 Cachimba Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 06:00 Arista Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2018 00:00 Gilchrist United States  0.1
24 Oct 2018 00:00 High Island United States  0.1
21 Oct 2018 02:45 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 17:00 La Lima Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 05:45 Punta Mita Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 05:45 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 05:45 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 05:45 Monteon Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 03:45 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 03:45 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 06:45 La Concepion Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 06:45 Barra de San Jose Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 18:30 San Francisco del Mar Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 02:45 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 05:30 Pizota Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 05:30 Puerto Vallarta Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 17:45 San Felipe Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 00:30 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 06:30 Corrales Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 06:30 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 06:30 Ipala Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 19:45 Garrapateras Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 19:45 Majada Villalobos Mexico  0.1
24 Oct 2018 00:00 La Choya Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 22:15 Chaparral Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 12:45 El Mezquital Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 21:30 Marmol Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 03:15 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 08:45 El Tular Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 08:45 Cabo Rojito Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 23:30 El Tornillal Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 04:00 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 04:00 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 03:45 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 06:30 La Fortuna Mexico  0.1
23 Oct 2018 06:30 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 04:15 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 04:15 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
22 Oct 2018 19:15 Chola Mexico  0.1
21 Oct 2018 10:30 La Majada Mexico  0.1

Calculation folder at this link