Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for AMPHAN-20 in India, Bangladesh, Bhutan from 16 May 2020 06:00 UTC to 20 May 2020 12:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for AMPHAN-20

in India, Bangladesh, Bhutan

16 May 2020 12 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone AMPHAN-20 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	86 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (16 May 16:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Bangladesh)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	86 km/h	0.4 m	347 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	166 km/h	2.5 m	658 mm	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

166 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 16 May 2020 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	15 May 2020 12:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2020 00:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	16 May 2020 12:00	180	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 May 2020 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Bhutan, India	529,472	+
	India	527,217
	Bhutan	2,255
50-100 mm	India, Burma, Bhutan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Thailand, Sri Lanka	8,007,158	+
	India	6,865,655
	Burma	1,021,655
	Bhutan	39,261
	Nepal	1,917
	Bangladesh	71,210
	Thailand	128
	Sri Lanka	7,332

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	15 May 2020 12:00	242	-	-	-	-	-	-	India
2	16 May 2020 00:00	179	-	-	-	-	-	-	India
3	16 May 2020 12:00	722	530 thousand		-	-	-	-	India, Burma, Bhutan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Thailand, Sri Lanka

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Shwe-o, Myanmar. This height is estimated for 16 May 2020 16:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 16 May 2020 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	16 May 2020 16:45	Shwe-o	Myanmar	0.4
	16 May 2020 16:45	Alanbya	Myanmar	0.4
	16 May 2020 16:45	Mokkamu	Myanmar	0.4
	16 May 2020 16:45	Boyagyi	Myanmar	0.4
	16 May 2020 16:45	Kyaikto	Myanmar	0.4
	16 May 2020 16:45	Kyaikpi	Myanmar	0.4
	16 May 2020 16:45	Kawbein	Myanmar	0.4
	16 May 2020 16:45	Damathat	Myanmar	0.3
	16 May 2020 16:45	Pauktaw	Myanmar	0.3
	16 May 2020 16:45	Zokali	Myanmar	0.3
	16 May 2020 16:45	Taungxun	Myanmar	0.3
	16 May 2020 15:15	Taunggyi	Myanmar	0.3
	16 May 2020 15:15	Budin	Myanmar	0.3
	16 May 2020 15:15	Kadaik	Myanmar	0.3
	16 May 2020 15:15	Donwun	Myanmar	0.3
	16 May 2020 15:15	Kangyisu	Myanmar	0.3
	16 May 2020 15:15	Thamaseikta	Myanmar	0.3
	16 May 2020 15:45	Mahameik	Myanmar	0.3
	16 May 2020 16:00	Shangyaung	Myanmar	0.3
	16 May 2020 15:15	Tanbingyaung	Myanmar	0.3
	16 May 2020 15:30	Khindan	Myanmar	0.3
	16 May 2020 15:30	Darein	Myanmar	0.3
	16 May 2020 15:30	Paung	Myanmar	0.3
	16 May 2020 17:45	Gangra	India	0.3
	16 May 2020 17:45	Kakdwip	India	0.3
	16 May 2020 17:45	Namkhana	India	0.3
	16 May 2020 17:45	Belpukur	India	0.3
	16 May 2020 15:30	Munaing	Myanmar	0.2
	16 May 2020 15:30	Tagukana	Myanmar	0.2
	16 May 2020 15:30	Kawpamagon	Myanmar	0.2
	16 May 2020 17:15	Dublat	India	0.2
	16 May 2020 15:30	Kwanhla	Myanmar	0.2
	16 May 2020 12:00	Kottaippattanam	India	0.2
	16 May 2020 12:00	Kattumavadi	India	0.2
	16 May 2020 12:00	Manamelkudi	India	0.2
	16 May 2020 12:00	Ammapatam	India	0.2
	16 May 2020 14:45	Kyaikkami	Myanmar	0.2
	16 May 2020 16:15	Kalipur	Bangladesh	0.1
	16 May 2020 16:15	Bara Patharghata	Bangladesh	0.1
	16 May 2020 16:15	Jnanpara	Bangladesh	0.1
	16 May 2020 16:15	Chhota Nishanbaria Chak	Bangladesh	0.1
	16 May 2020 16:15	Dhalua	Bangladesh	0.1
	16 May 2020 16:15	Bara Bagi	Bangladesh	0.1
	16 May 2020 16:15	Chhota Bagi	Bangladesh	0.1
	16 May 2020 16:15	Mahipur	Bangladesh	0.1
	16 May 2020 16:15	Chandkhali	Bangladesh	0.1
	16 May 2020 16:15	Burir Char	Bangladesh	0.1
	16 May 2020 16:15	Kachupatra	Bangladesh	0.1
	16 May 2020 16:15	Arpangasia	Bangladesh	0.1
	16 May 2020 16:15	Bara Baliatali	Bangladesh	0.1
	16 May 2020 16:15	Kalapara	Bangladesh	0.1
	16 May 2020 14:30	Kayindaung	Myanmar	0.1
	16 May 2020 15:45	Kala-ywa	Myanmar	0.1
	16 May 2020 15:45	Ase-ywa	Myanmar	0.1
	16 May 2020 12:00	Tondi	India	0.1
	16 May 2020 16:45	Bijavbati	India	0.1
	16 May 2020 13:45	Devipatam	India	0.1
	16 May 2020 13:45	Tirupalakudi	India	0.1
	16 May 2020 12:00	Atirampattinam	India	0.1
	16 May 2020 16:45	Kavutarimunai	Sri Lanka	0.1
	16 May 2020 16:45	Pooneryn	Sri Lanka	0.1
	16 May 2020 16:45	Ampan	Sri Lanka	0.1
	16 May 2020 15:30	Digha	India	0.1
	16 May 2020 15:30	Ramnagar	India	0.1
	16 May 2020 20:30	Char Kalmi	Bangladesh	0.1
	16 May 2020 20:30	Char Manika	Bangladesh	0.1
	16 May 2020 20:30	Char Kukuri Mukuri	Bangladesh	0.1
	16 May 2020 20:30	Ar Kalmi	Bangladesh	0.1
	16 May 2020 20:30	Char Aicha	Bangladesh	0.1
	16 May 2020 20:30	Char Paila	Bangladesh	0.1
	16 May 2020 16:45	Jaffna	Sri Lanka	0.1
	16 May 2020 12:45	Panalkkulam	India	0.1
	16 May 2020 12:45	Irumeni	India	0.1
	16 May 2020 13:15	Muttupettai	India	0.1
	16 May 2020 13:15	Pamban	India	0.1
	16 May 2020 17:00	Kuakata	Bangladesh	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.