Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for AMPHAN-20 in India, Bangladesh, Bhutan from 16 May 2020 06:00 UTC to 20 May 2020 12:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for AMPHAN-20

in India, Bangladesh, Bhutan

17 May 2020 00 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone AMPHAN-20 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries	India
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	115 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (17 May 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Bangladesh)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	115 km/h	0.2 m	222 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	166 km/h	2.5 m	658 mm	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

166 km/h

Up to 1.2 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 May 2020 00:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	India	1,204,210

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	15 May 2020 12:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2020 00:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	16 May 2020 12:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 May 2020 00:00	176	-		-	-	-	-	-	India

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 May 2020 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Bhutan, India	77,008	+
	India	73,797
	Bhutan	3,211
50-100 mm	Burma, India, Bhutan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Thailand, Sri Lanka	13,115,601	+
	Burma	1,097,376
	India	11,937,328
	Bhutan	19,208
	Nepal	598
	Bangladesh	21,607
	Thailand	110
	Sri Lanka	39,374

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	15 May 2020 12:00	242	-	-	-	-	-	-	India
2	16 May 2020 00:00	179	-	-	-	-	-	-	India
3	16 May 2020 12:00	347	120 thousand		-	-	-	-	India
4	17 May 2020 00:00	834	80 thousand		-	-	-	-	Burma, India, Bhutan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Thailand, Sri Lanka

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Zokali, Myanmar. This height is estimated for 17 May 2020 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 17 May 2020 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	17 May 2020 12:00	Zokali	Myanmar	0.2
	17 May 2020 12:00	Taunggyi	Myanmar	0.2
	17 May 2020 12:00	Budin	Myanmar	0.2
	17 May 2020 12:00	Kadaik	Myanmar	0.2
	17 May 2020 12:00	Donwun	Myanmar	0.2
	17 May 2020 11:45	Shwe-o	Myanmar	0.2
	17 May 2020 11:45	Alanbya	Myanmar	0.2
	17 May 2020 11:45	Mokkamu	Myanmar	0.2
	17 May 2020 11:45	Boyagyi	Myanmar	0.2
	17 May 2020 11:45	Kyaikto	Myanmar	0.2
	17 May 2020 11:45	Kyaikpi	Myanmar	0.2
	17 May 2020 11:45	Kawbein	Myanmar	0.2
	17 May 2020 12:00	Kangyisu	Myanmar	0.2
	17 May 2020 12:00	Pauktaw	Myanmar	0.2
	17 May 2020 12:00	Taungxun	Myanmar	0.2
	17 May 2020 12:00	Khindan	Myanmar	0.2
	17 May 2020 12:00	Darein	Myanmar	0.2
	17 May 2020 12:00	Munaing	Myanmar	0.2
	17 May 2020 12:00	Kwanhla	Myanmar	0.2
	17 May 2020 12:00	Tagukana	Myanmar	0.2
	17 May 2020 12:00	Damathat	Myanmar	0.2
	17 May 2020 12:00	Tanbingyaung	Myanmar	0.2
	17 May 2020 12:00	Kawpamagon	Myanmar	0.2
	17 May 2020 12:00	Paung	Myanmar	0.1
	17 May 2020 12:00	Thamaseikta	Myanmar	0.1
	17 May 2020 12:00	Mahameik	Myanmar	0.1
	17 May 2020 12:00	Kyaikkami	Myanmar	0.1
	17 May 2020 03:45	Uppuveli	Sri Lanka	0.1
	17 May 2020 03:45	Trincomalee	Sri Lanka	0.1
	17 May 2020 03:45	Foul Point	Sri Lanka	0.1
	17 May 2020 03:15	Chakicherla	India	0.1
	17 May 2020 03:15	Vatturupallepalem	India	0.1
	17 May 2020 12:00	Kayindaung	Myanmar	0.1
	17 May 2020 03:30	Anaitivu	Sri Lanka	0.1
	17 May 2020 03:00	Walauttu	Sri Lanka	0.1
	17 May 2020 03:00	Koyyam	India	0.1
	17 May 2020 03:00	Dharmavaram	India	0.1
	17 May 2020 03:00	Srikurman	India	0.1
	17 May 2020 12:00	Shangyaung	Myanmar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.