Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for DANILO-21 in , Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands from 01 Jan 2021 18:00 UTC to 09 Jan 2021 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for DANILO-21

in , Mauritius, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

04 Jan 2021 12 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone DANILO-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	76 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (05 Jan 05:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	76 km/h	0.3 m	21 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	68 km/h	0.3 m	238 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

68 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 04 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	01 Jan 2021 00:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	01 Jan 2021 12:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	02 Jan 2021 00:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	02 Jan 2021 12:00	104	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	03 Jan 2021 00:00	104	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	03 Jan 2021 12:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	04 Jan 2021 00:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	04 Jan 2021 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Reunion	22,654

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	01 Jan 2021 00:00	20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	01 Jan 2021 12:00	21	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	02 Jan 2021 00:00	28	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	02 Jan 2021 12:00	29	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	03 Jan 2021 00:00	29	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	03 Jan 2021 12:00	27	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	04 Jan 2021 00:00	20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	04 Jan 2021 12:00	296	-		-	-	-	-	-	Reunion

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Maniroka, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 05 Jan 2021 05:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 04 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	05 Jan 2021 05:00	Maniroka	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Jan 2021 05:00	Antanjokatafana	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Jan 2021 05:00	Ratsianarana	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Jan 2021 05:00	Ambodivato	Madagascar	0.3
	05 Jan 2021 04:45	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Jan 2021 04:45	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Jan 2021 04:45	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Jan 2021 04:45	Ambatoharana	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Jan 2021 04:15	Anaovandrano	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Jan 2021 04:15	Anjanozana	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Jan 2021 04:15	Ampanavoana	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Jan 2021 04:00	Vinanivao	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Jan 2021 04:45	Antsirabato	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Jan 2021 04:45	Anjahamarina	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Jan 2021 04:45	Ambalabe	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Jan 2021 04:45	Ambohitralanana	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Jan 2021 02:45	Antsahotompy	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Jan 2021 02:45	Amboanio	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Jan 2021 02:45	Ambondrombe	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Jan 2021 16:00	Ampaha	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Jan 2021 16:00	Andrapengy	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Jan 2021 16:00	Ambinany	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Jan 2021 16:00	Antalaha	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Jan 2021 03:15	Ambodipont-Sahana	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Jan 2021 03:00	Ambanjsondriry	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Jan 2021 03:00	Masondrono	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Jan 2021 03:15	Sambava	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Jan 2021 03:15	Farahalana	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Jan 2021 03:15	Amborimalana	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Jan 2021 03:15	Antohamaro	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Jan 2021 03:00	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Jan 2021 03:00	Antongompatatra	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Jan 2021 03:00	Bemanevika	Madagascar	0.2
	06 Jan 2021 03:00	Ampana Kanana	Madagascar	0.2
	05 Jan 2021 15:45	Le Port	Reunion	0.2
	05 Jan 2021 15:45	La Possession	Reunion	0.2
	05 Jan 2021 15:45	Saint-Denis	Reunion	0.2
	05 Jan 2021 15:45	Saint-Marie	Reunion	0.2
	05 Jan 2021 15:45	Sainte-Suzanne	Reunion	0.2
	06 Jan 2021 09:30	Point Marianne	British Indian Ocean Territory	0.2
	06 Jan 2021 09:15	East Point Plantation	British Indian Ocean Territory	0.1
	07 Jan 2021 02:15	Trou aux Biches	Mauritius	0.1
	07 Jan 2021 02:15	Saint-Antoine	Mauritius	0.1
	07 Jan 2021 02:15	Riviere du Rempart	Mauritius	0.1
	05 Jan 2021 15:45	Saint-Paul	Reunion	0.1
	05 Jan 2021 15:45	Trois Bassins	Reunion	0.1
	05 Jan 2021 16:15	Saint-Andre	Reunion	0.1
	05 Jan 2021 16:15	Bras-Panon	Reunion	0.1
	05 Jan 2021 15:30	Saint-Leu	Reunion	0.1
	05 Jan 2021 15:30	Saint-Benoit	Reunion	0.1
	05 Jan 2021 15:30	Les Avirons	Reunion	0.1
	05 Jan 2021 15:30	Etang Sale	Reunion	0.1
	07 Jan 2021 03:15	Saint-Louis	Reunion	0.1
	05 Jan 2021 15:30	Saint-Pierre	Reunion	0.1
	07 Jan 2021 02:45	Petite Ile	Reunion	0.1
	07 Jan 2021 02:45	Saint-Joseph	Reunion	0.1
	05 Jan 2021 16:00	Saint-Philippe	Reunion	0.1
	05 Jan 2021 16:00	Cascades	Reunion	0.1
	05 Jan 2021 16:00	Sainte-Rose	Reunion	0.1
	05 Jan 2021 16:15	Riche-en-Eau	Mauritius	0.1
	05 Jan 2021 16:15	Maheboug	Mauritius	0.1
	05 Jan 2021 16:15	Grande Reviere Sud Est	Mauritius	0.1
	05 Jan 2021 16:30	Port Louis	Mauritius	0.1
	05 Jan 2021 15:45	Choisy	Mauritius	0.1
	05 Jan 2021 15:45	Black River	Mauritius	0.1
	05 Jan 2021 15:45	Chemin Grenier	Mauritius	0.1
	05 Jan 2021 15:45	Souillac	Mauritius	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.