Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for PAMELA-21
in Mexico
11 Oct 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAMELA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States, Mexico
Exposed population 10 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 76 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (11 Oct 06:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 76 km/h 0.2 m 75 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 130 km/h 0.4 m 440 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

130 km/h

Up to 1.3 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Oct 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Mexico14,703 
Tropical StormUnited States, Mexico1,287,893
+
United States436,494 
Mexico851,399 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 10 Oct 2021 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 10 Oct 2021 12:00 72 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 3 10 Oct 2021 18:00 72 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 4 11 Oct 2021 00:00 194 10 thousand
- - - - United States, Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Oct 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmMexico753,938 
50-100 mmMexico378,235 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 10 Oct 2021 06:00 135 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 10 Oct 2021 12:00 133 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 10 Oct 2021 18:00 96 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 11 Oct 2021 00:00 370 750 thousand
- - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Estes, United States. This height is estimated for 11 Oct 2021 06:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 11 Oct 2021 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
11 Oct 2021 06:00 Estes United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 06:00 Rockport United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 06:00 Shell Ridge United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 06:00 Copano Village United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 06:00 Fulton United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 06:00 Holiday Beach United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 06:00 Lamar United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 06:00 La Gloria Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2021 06:00 Chaparral Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2021 01:15 Corpus Christi United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 01:15 North Beach United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 01:15 Gardendale United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 01:15 Doyle United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 01:15 Orange Grove United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 01:15 Portland United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 01:15 Gregory United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 01:15 Caruthers Cove Colonia United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 01:30 Ingleside United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 01:30 Kenney Lane West Colonia United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 01:30 Port Ingleside United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 01:30 Indian Trails Lane Colonia United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 01:30 Country Acres Colonia United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 01:30 Country Estates Colonia United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 01:30 Aransas Pass United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 02:30 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2021 06:00 Carancahua United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 06:00 El Campo Club Community United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 06:00 Camp Hulen United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 06:00 Palacios United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 06:00 Collegeport United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 06:00 Simpsonville United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 06:00 Citrus Grove United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 01:45 Peary Place United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 01:45 Flour Bluff United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 01:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2021 01:00 Loreto Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2021 01:00 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 01:45 Mustang Beach United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 01:45 Port Aransas United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 02:15 Indianola United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 02:15 Olivia United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 02:15 Weedhaven United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 02:15 Port Alto United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 02:15 Port O'Connor United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 00:30 Tecomate Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 00:30 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 01:45 Magnolia Beach United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 00:00 Datilito Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 00:00 La Paz Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 00:00 Rosario Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 05:15 Aguaje Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 01:00 Liliba Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 06:00 Matagorda United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 06:00 Chinquapin United States  0.1
11 Oct 2021 04:45 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 00:45 Guasimas Mexico  0.1