Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for PAMELA-21
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAMELA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States, Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 130 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (13 Oct 12:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 58 km/h 0.4 m 286 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 130 km/h 0.4 m 440 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 14 Oct 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States, Mexico2,560,147
+
United States1,394,074 
Mexico1,166,073 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 10 Oct 2021 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 10 Oct 2021 12:00 72 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 3 10 Oct 2021 18:00 72 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 4 11 Oct 2021 00:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 11 Oct 2021 06:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 11 Oct 2021 12:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 11 Oct 2021 18:00 112 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
GREEN 8 12 Oct 2021 00:00 119 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
GREEN 9 12 Oct 2021 06:00 130 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
GREEN 10 12 Oct 2021 12:00 119 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
GREEN 11 12 Oct 2021 18:00 86 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
GREEN 12 13 Oct 2021 00:00 90 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
GREEN 13 13 Oct 2021 06:00 119 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 14 13 Oct 2021 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 15 13 Oct 2021 18:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 14 Oct 2021 00:00 58 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h
Download:

Rainfall

440 mm

Up to 3.9 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 14 Oct 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmUnited States, Mexico3,881,904
+
United States3,174,528 
Mexico707,376 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico12,209,002
+
United States11,200,238 
Mexico1,008,763 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 10 Oct 2021 06:00 135 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 10 Oct 2021 12:00 133 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 10 Oct 2021 18:00 96 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 11 Oct 2021 00:00 75 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 11 Oct 2021 06:00 143 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 11 Oct 2021 12:00 88 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 11 Oct 2021 18:00 115 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 12 Oct 2021 00:00 142 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 12 Oct 2021 06:00 122 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 12 Oct 2021 12:00 121 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 12 Oct 2021 18:00 107 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 13 Oct 2021 00:00 137 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 13 Oct 2021 06:00 234 7 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 14 13 Oct 2021 12:00 112 Few people
- - - - Mexico
Blue 15 13 Oct 2021 18:00 94 -
- - - - - United States
Blue 16 14 Oct 2021 00:00 286 150 thousand
- - - - United States, Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Marmol, Mexico. This height is estimated for 13 Oct 2021 12:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 14 Oct 2021 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
13 Oct 2021 12:15 Marmol Mexico  0.4
13 Oct 2021 12:15 Florida Mexico  0.4
13 Oct 2021 21:45 La Gloria Mexico  0.4
13 Oct 2021 21:45 Chaparral Mexico  0.4
13 Oct 2021 12:15 Dimas Mexico  0.3
16 Oct 2021 16:45 Spanish Village United States  0.3
16 Oct 2021 16:45 Austwell United States  0.3
16 Oct 2021 16:45 Seadrift United States  0.3
13 Oct 2021 12:15 Mazatlan Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 19:30 Matagorda United States  0.3
13 Oct 2021 19:30 Chinquapin United States  0.3
13 Oct 2021 12:00 Perihuete Mexico  0.3
14 Oct 2021 06:15 Riviera United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 06:15 Vattman United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 06:15 Loyola Beach United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 06:15 Orange Grove United States  0.3
14 Oct 2021 06:15 La Parra Landing United States  0.3
12 Oct 2021 02:30 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 11:45 La Palmita Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 11:45 Caimanero Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 11:45 Jarilla Mexico  0.3
13 Oct 2021 11:45 La Puerta Mexico  0.3
12 Oct 2021 03:00 La Choya Mexico  0.3
11 Oct 2021 07:30 Estes United States  0.3
11 Oct 2021 07:30 Rockport United States  0.3
11 Oct 2021 07:30 Shell Ridge United States  0.3
11 Oct 2021 07:30 Copano Village United States  0.3
11 Oct 2021 07:30 Fulton United States  0.3
11 Oct 2021 07:30 Holiday Beach United States  0.3
11 Oct 2021 07:30 Lamar United States  0.3
13 Oct 2021 12:00 Barron Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 02:30 Aguaje Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 20:15 Corpus Christi United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 20:15 North Beach United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 20:15 Gardendale United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 20:15 Doyle United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 20:15 Orange Grove United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 20:15 Portland United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 20:15 Gregory United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 20:15 Caruthers Cove Colonia United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 11:30 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:00 Novillero Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 12:15 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 12:15 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
16 Oct 2021 15:30 Buena Vista United States  0.2
16 Oct 2021 15:30 Holly Beach United States  0.2
16 Oct 2021 15:30 Laguna Vista United States  0.2
16 Oct 2021 15:30 Laguna Heights United States  0.2
16 Oct 2021 15:30 Port Isabel United States  0.2
16 Oct 2021 15:30 South Padre Island United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 08:00 Carancahua United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 08:00 El Campo Club Community United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 08:00 Camp Hulen United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 08:00 Palacios United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 08:00 Collegeport United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 08:00 Simpsonville United States  0.2
11 Oct 2021 08:00 Citrus Grove United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 12:45 El Castillo Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:15 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 13:15 La Boca Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 02:45 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2021 19:30 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2021 20:15 Ingleside United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 20:15 Kenney Lane West Colonia United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 20:15 Port Ingleside United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 20:15 Indian Trails Lane Colonia United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 20:15 Country Acres Colonia United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 20:15 Country Estates Colonia United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 20:15 Aransas Pass United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 12:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 02:45 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 12:00 Indianola United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 12:00 Olivia United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 12:00 Weedhaven United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 12:00 Port Alto United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 12:00 Port O'Connor United States  0.2
16 Oct 2021 02:45 Maudlowe United States  0.2
16 Oct 2021 02:45 Tivoli United States  0.2
16 Oct 2021 02:45 Long Mott United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 12:15 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 06:00 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 01:45 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 03:15 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 06:30 Puertecitos Mexico  0.2
11 Oct 2021 08:45 Magnolia Beach United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 05:00 Peary Place United States  0.2
14 Oct 2021 05:00 Flour Bluff United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 06:30 La Fortuna Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 06:30 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.2
13 Oct 2021 04:30 Ojo de Liebre Mexico  0.2
16 Oct 2021 11:30 Port Mansfield United States  0.2
12 Oct 2021 00:00 Tecomate Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 00:00 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2021 17:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2021 17:00 Loreto Mexico  0.2
12 Oct 2021 21:30 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.2
16 Oct 2021 10:15 El Martillo United States  0.2
13 Oct 2021 07:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 04:45 Mustang Beach United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 04:45 Port Aransas United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 17:45 City Arroyo United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 17:45 Arroyo City Subdivision Colonia United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 06:15 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.1
14 Oct 2021 01:30 Yarborough United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 Azure Vista United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 Ocean Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 Fort Rosecrans United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 Roseville United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 Loma Portal United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 San Diego United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 Coronado United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 Imperial Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 Boal United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 06:00 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 05:45 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 12:00 Altata Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 18:15 Rancho Magueyes Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 18:15 El Mezquite Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 18:15 El Mezquital Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 22:30 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:15 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:15 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 23:00 Ligui Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:30 La Ribera Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:30 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:30 Punta Arena Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:30 Los Tesos Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Laguna Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Canyon Acres United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Top of the World United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 South Laguna United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Capistrano Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 San Clemente United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Agra United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Las Flores United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 The Muirlands United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Mission Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Campland on the Bay Trailer Park United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Rosarito Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 06:45 Molino Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 07:00 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 13:00 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 13:00 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 La Jolla United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 Easter Cross United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 Sorrento United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Stuart United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Fallbrook Junction United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Camp Pendleton South United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Escondido Junction United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Oceanside United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Carlsbad United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Ponto United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Leucadia United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Encinitas United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Cardiff-by-the-Sea United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Green Valley Mobile Estates United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Emerald Bay United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Solana Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Del Mar United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:30 El Tule Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:30 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:15 Tripui Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 14:15 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
16 Oct 2021 21:30 Salinas Mexico  0.1
16 Oct 2021 21:30 Buen Pais Mexico  0.1
16 Oct 2021 21:30 Alvarado Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:15 Monteon Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:15 La Lima Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 07:00 El Desemboque Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:00 San Blas Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:30 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Balboa United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Corona del Mar United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Crystal Cove United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 San Joaquin Hills United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 13:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 00:00 Datilito Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 00:00 La Paz Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 00:00 Rosario Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Bay Shores United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:00 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 Newport Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:15 Cliff Haven United States  0.1
10 Oct 2021 14:00 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
10 Oct 2021 14:00 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 22:15 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 Signal Hill United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 Belmont Shore United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 Surfside United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 Seal Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 Sunset Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:30 Huntington Beach United States  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:00 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 03:30 Tierra Colorada Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Las Flores United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Castellammare United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Pacific Palisades United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Santa Monica United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Sawtelle United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Marina del Rey United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Playa del Rey United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Alsace United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 El Segundo United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Manhattan Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Hermosa Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Palos Verdes Estates United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Clifton United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Redondo Beach United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Rancho Palos Verdes United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Rolling Hills Estates United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Rolling Hills United States  0.1
16 Oct 2021 21:45 Anton Lizardo Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 San Pedro United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Wilmington United States  0.1
14 Oct 2021 01:30 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:00 Las Palmas Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Malibu United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Monte Nido United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:45 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:30 Punta Mita Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:30 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 15:15 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 01:00 Liliba Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 02:45 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 02:45 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 06:30 Los Frailes Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:15 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 12:45 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 13:45 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 13:45 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 13:45 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 22:30 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 22:30 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 22:30 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 Avalon United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 El Rosario Mexico  0.1
10 Oct 2021 14:00 La Florida Mexico  0.1
10 Oct 2021 14:00 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 05:15 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 03:45 Two Harbors United States  0.1
12 Oct 2021 22:45 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 22:45 Cunano Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 22:45 San Jose Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 20:45 El Tomale Mexico  0.1
11 Oct 2021 00:45 Guasimas Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 01:15 Todos Santos Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 21:00 Quinones Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 22:45 Santa Marta Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 El Descanso Mexico  0.1
12 Oct 2021 04:00 La Mision Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:00 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
13 Oct 2021 07:00 La Trinadad Mexico  0.1