Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PETER-21
in Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands U.S., Virgin Islands British, Anguilla, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Antigua and Barbuda

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PETER-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 130 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (25 Sep 05:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Anguilla)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 130 km/h 0.5 m 209 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 130 km/h 0.5 m 209 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 23 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 19 Sep 2021 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 19 Sep 2021 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 19 Sep 2021 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 19 Sep 2021 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 20 Sep 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 20 Sep 2021 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 20 Sep 2021 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 20 Sep 2021 18:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 21 Sep 2021 00:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 21 Sep 2021 06:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 21 Sep 2021 12:00 43 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 21 Sep 2021 18:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 22 Sep 2021 00:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 22 Sep 2021 06:00 40 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 22 Sep 2021 12:00 43 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 22 Sep 2021 18:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 23 Sep 2021 00:00 130 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h

Rainfall

209 mm

Up to 140 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 23 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmVenezuela, Colombia142,450
+
Venezuela11,069 
Colombia131,381 
50-100 mmUnited States, Cuba, Haiti, Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Colombia10,638,973
+
United States5,001 
Cuba83,067 
Haiti475,737 
Dominican Republic245,932 
Venezuela5,273,806 
Colombia4,555,429 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 19 Sep 2021 00:00 135 -
- - - - - Colombia
Blue 2 19 Sep 2021 06:00 127 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 19 Sep 2021 12:00 37 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 19 Sep 2021 18:00 20 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 20 Sep 2021 00:00 21 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 20 Sep 2021 06:00 35 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 20 Sep 2021 12:00 29 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 20 Sep 2021 18:00 49 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 21 Sep 2021 00:00 29 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 21 Sep 2021 06:00 37 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 21 Sep 2021 12:00 18 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 21 Sep 2021 18:00 68 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 22 Sep 2021 00:00 45 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 22 Sep 2021 06:00 18 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 22 Sep 2021 12:00 23 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 22 Sep 2021 18:00 18 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 23 Sep 2021 00:00 202 -
- - - - - United States, Dominican Republic, Haiti, Colombia, Venezuela




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.5 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 23 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
0.25 - 0.5 mPuerto Rico, Colombia, Venezuela, Trinidad and Tobago155,171
+
Puerto Rico1,005 
Colombia38,989 
Venezuela110,757 
Trinidad and Tobago4,418 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 23 Sep 2021 00:00 UTC