Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for PAMELA-21
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAMELA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries United States, Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 86 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (14 Oct 05:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 86 km/h 0.4 m 319 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 76 km/h 0.4 m 386 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

76 km/h

Up to 20 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Oct 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States, Mexico20,938
+
United States345 
Mexico20,593 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 09 Oct 2021 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 10 Oct 2021 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 10 Oct 2021 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 11 Oct 2021 00:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 11 Oct 2021 12:00 101 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h




Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Oct 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico623 
100-250 mmUnited States, Mexico1,744,151
+
United States1,118,916 
Mexico625,234 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico6,778,639
+
United States5,847,339 
Mexico931,299 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 09 Oct 2021 12:00 140 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 10 Oct 2021 00:00 215 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 3 10 Oct 2021 12:00 210 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 11 Oct 2021 00:00 272 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 5 11 Oct 2021 12:00 345 1.7 million
- - - United States, Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.4 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 11 Oct 2021 12:00 UTC