Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for BATSIRAI-22
in Madagascar
04 Feb 2022 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone BATSIRAI-22 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Madagascar, Mauritius, Reunion
Exposed population 70 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 198 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.6 m (04 Feb 01:45 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 198 km/h 0.6 m 253 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 227 km/h 0.8 m 2013 mm 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

227 km/h

Up to 70 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Feb 2022 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 2Madagascar16,967 
CAT. 1Madagascar54,110 
Tropical StormMadagascar, Mauritius, Reunion6,320,767
+
Madagascar5,864,742 
Mauritius10,404 
Reunion445,620 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 27 Jan 2022 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 27 Jan 2022 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 27 Jan 2022 12:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 27 Jan 2022 18:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 28 Jan 2022 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 28 Jan 2022 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 28 Jan 2022 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 28 Jan 2022 18:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 29 Jan 2022 00:00 90 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 29 Jan 2022 06:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 29 Jan 2022 12:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 29 Jan 2022 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 30 Jan 2022 00:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 30 Jan 2022 06:00 40 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 30 Jan 2022 12:00 43 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 30 Jan 2022 18:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 31 Jan 2022 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 31 Jan 2022 06:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 31 Jan 2022 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 31 Jan 2022 18:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 01 Feb 2022 00:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 01 Feb 2022 06:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 23 01 Feb 2022 12:00 162 - - - - - - -
GREEN 24 01 Feb 2022 18:00 180 -
- - - - - Mauritius
GREEN 25 02 Feb 2022 00:00 227 -
- - - - - Mauritius, Reunion
GREEN 26 02 Feb 2022 06:00 216 -
- - - - - Mauritius, Reunion
GREEN 27 02 Feb 2022 12:00 227 -
- - - - - Mauritius, Reunion
GREEN 28 02 Feb 2022 18:00 220 -
- - - - - Mauritius, Reunion
GREEN 29 03 Feb 2022 00:00 0 - - - - - - -
GREEN 30 03 Feb 2022 06:00 216 -
- - - - - Reunion
GREEN 31 03 Feb 2022 12:00 202 -
- - - - - Reunion
GREEN 32 03 Feb 2022 18:00 191 -
- - - - - Reunion
GREEN 33 04 Feb 2022 00:00 212 70 thousand
- - - Madagascar, Mauritius, Reunion
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Feb 2022 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
750-1000 mmMadagascar18,129 
500-750 mmMadagascar226,735 
250-500 mmMadagascar, Reunion1,978,604
+
Madagascar1,953,464 
Reunion25,139 
100-250 mmMadagascar, Reunion4,213,487
+
Madagascar4,144,840 
Reunion68,647 
50-100 mmMadagascar, Mauritius, Reunion2,504,773
+
Madagascar1,950,951 
Mauritius343,751 
Reunion210,069 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 27 Jan 2022 00:00 258 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 27 Jan 2022 06:00 91 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 27 Jan 2022 12:00 120 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 27 Jan 2022 18:00 370 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 28 Jan 2022 00:00 150 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 28 Jan 2022 06:00 54 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 28 Jan 2022 12:00 47 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 28 Jan 2022 18:00 112 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 29 Jan 2022 00:00 190 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 29 Jan 2022 06:00 319 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 29 Jan 2022 12:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 29 Jan 2022 18:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 30 Jan 2022 00:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 30 Jan 2022 06:00 1 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 30 Jan 2022 12:00 2 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 30 Jan 2022 18:00 4 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 31 Jan 2022 00:00 23 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 31 Jan 2022 06:00 48 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 31 Jan 2022 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 31 Jan 2022 18:00 281 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 01 Feb 2022 00:00 117 - - - - - - -
Blue 22 01 Feb 2022 06:00 164 - - - - - - -
Blue 23 01 Feb 2022 12:00 159 - - - - - - -
Blue 24 01 Feb 2022 18:00 242 Few people
- - - - Reunion
Blue 25 02 Feb 2022 00:00 379 Few people
- - - - Reunion
Blue 26 02 Feb 2022 06:00 236 Few people
- - - - Mauritius, Reunion
Blue 27 02 Feb 2022 12:00 339 3 thousand
- - - - Reunion
Blue 28 02 Feb 2022 18:00 365 4 thousand
- - - - Reunion
Blue 29 03 Feb 2022 00:00 0 - - - - - - -
Blue 30 03 Feb 2022 06:00 312 20 thousand
- - - Reunion
Blue 31 03 Feb 2022 12:00 324 20 thousand
- - - Reunion
Blue 32 03 Feb 2022 18:00 251 20 thousand
- - - - Reunion
Blue 33 04 Feb 2022 00:00 958 6.4 million
- Madagascar, Mauritius, Reunion




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.6 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 04 Feb 2022 00:00 UTC