Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for FREDDY-23 in Mozambique, Madagascar from 06 Feb 2023 06:00 UTC to 12 Mar 2023 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for FREDDY-23

in Mozambique, Madagascar

14 Feb 2023 00 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC
Primary source
WMO-RSMC La Réunion

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FREDDY-23 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	126 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (14 Feb 03:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	126 km/h	0.3 m	146 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	205 km/h	0.7 m	1068 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 14 Feb 2023 00:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	South Africa	00	+

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	06 Feb 2023 06:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	06 Feb 2023 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	06 Feb 2023 18:00	104	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	07 Feb 2023 00:00	140	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	07 Feb 2023 06:00	140	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	07 Feb 2023 12:00	148	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	07 Feb 2023 18:00	158	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	08 Feb 2023 00:00	162	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	08 Feb 2023 06:00	151	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	08 Feb 2023 12:00	137	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	08 Feb 2023 18:00	137	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	09 Feb 2023 00:00	122	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	09 Feb 2023 06:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	09 Feb 2023 12:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	09 Feb 2023 18:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	10 Feb 2023 00:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	10 Feb 2023 06:00	122	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	10 Feb 2023 12:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	10 Feb 2023 18:00	148	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	11 Feb 2023 00:00	148	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	11 Feb 2023 06:00	140	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	11 Feb 2023 12:00	169	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia
23	11 Feb 2023 18:00	166	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
24	12 Feb 2023 00:00	180	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
25	12 Feb 2023 06:00	-	1.1 million							Indonesia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Tanzania, East Timor, Zambia, Malawi, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Australia, Botswana
26	12 Feb 2023 12:00	155	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
27	12 Feb 2023 18:00	155	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
28	13 Feb 2023 00:00	166	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
29	13 Feb 2023 06:00	140	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
30	13 Feb 2023 12:00	133	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
31	13 Feb 2023 18:00	130	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
32	14 Feb 2023 00:00	173	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

1068 mm

Up to 260 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 14 Feb 2023 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Botswana	10
100-250 mm	Indonesia, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Botswana	258,617	+
	Indonesia	52,884
	Mozambique	30,968
	Zimbabwe	172,617
	Botswana	2,147
50-100 mm	Indonesia, Tanzania, East Timor, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mozambique, Malawi, Zambia, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Australia, Botswana, South Africa, Lesotho	51,820,133	+
	Indonesia	38,771,295
	Tanzania	56,681
	East Timor	7,742
	Democratic Republic of the Congo	359
	Mozambique	1,911,668
	Malawi	786,621
	Zambia	292,260
	Madagascar	616,745
	Zimbabwe	3,132,487
	Australia	05
	Botswana	42,321
	South Africa	6,025,675
	Lesotho	176,266

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	06 Feb 2023 06:00	195	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia
2	06 Feb 2023 12:00	154	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
3	06 Feb 2023 18:00	190	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
4	07 Feb 2023 00:00	102	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	07 Feb 2023 06:00	232	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia
6	07 Feb 2023 12:00	245	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Madagascar
7	07 Feb 2023 18:00	242	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	08 Feb 2023 00:00	157	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	08 Feb 2023 06:00	307	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	08 Feb 2023 12:00	228	-		-	-	-	-	-	Tanzania, Madagascar
11	08 Feb 2023 18:00	249	Few people			-	-	-	-	South Africa, Eswatini
12	09 Feb 2023 00:00	130	Few people			-	-	-	-	South Africa
13	09 Feb 2023 06:00	123	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia
14	09 Feb 2023 12:00	209	-		-	-	-	-	-	Botswana
15	09 Feb 2023 18:00	239	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar, South Africa
16	10 Feb 2023 00:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	10 Feb 2023 06:00	210	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	10 Feb 2023 12:00	141	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	10 Feb 2023 18:00	215	-		-	-	-	-	-	Zimbabwe
20	11 Feb 2023 00:00	155	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mozambique
21	11 Feb 2023 06:00	151	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mozambique, Eswatini, South Africa
22	11 Feb 2023 12:00	213	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar, Eswatini, South Africa
23	11 Feb 2023 18:00	266	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia
24	12 Feb 2023 00:00	216	-		-	-	-	-	-	Malawi
25	12 Feb 2023 06:00	204	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia
26	12 Feb 2023 12:00	181	-		-	-	-	-	-	Democratic Republic of the Congo
27	12 Feb 2023 18:00	256	-		-	-	-	-	-	Indonesia, Zimbabwe
28	13 Feb 2023 00:00	128	Few people			-	-	-	-	Indonesia
29	13 Feb 2023 06:00	188	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
30	13 Feb 2023 12:00	204	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
31	13 Feb 2023 18:00	156	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mozambique, Zimbabwe
32	14 Feb 2023 00:00	332	260 thousand				-	-	-	Indonesia, Tanzania, East Timor, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mozambique, Malawi, Zambia, Madagascar, Zimbabwe, Australia, Botswana, South Africa, Lesotho

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.3 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 14 Feb 2023 00:00 UTC

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.