Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for LUCAS-21 in New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Solomon Islands from 31 Jan 2021 00:00 UTC to 02 Feb 2021 12:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LUCAS-21

in New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Solomon Islands

02 Feb 2021 12 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LUCAS-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Solomon Islands
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	120 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (03 Feb 16:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (New Caledonia)
Landfall	between 02 Feb 2021 12:00 - 03 Feb 2021 00:00 in New Caledonia

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	93 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	120 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

93 km/h Current Max.

Up to 380000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	31 Jan 2021 00:00	139	300 thousand	Few people	New Caledonia
2	31 Jan 2021 06:00	157	510 thousand	10 thousand	New Caledonia
3	31 Jan 2021 12:00	148	510 thousand	No people	Solomon Islands, New Caledonia, Vanuatu
4	31 Jan 2021 18:00	130	400 thousand	No people	Vanuatu, New Caledonia
5	01 Feb 2021 00:00	111	280 thousand	No people	New Caledonia
6	01 Feb 2021 06:00	120	280 thousand	No people	New Caledonia
7	01 Feb 2021 12:00	120	440 thousand	No people	Vanuatu, New Caledonia
8	01 Feb 2021 18:00	111	450 thousand	No people	Vanuatu, New Caledonia
9	02 Feb 2021 00:00	83	390 thousand	No people	Vanuatu, New Caledonia
10	02 Feb 2021 06:00	83	380 thousand	No people	New Caledonia, Vanuatu
11	02 Feb 2021 12:00	93	380 thousand	No people	New Caledonia, Vanuatu

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	31 Jan 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	-13.9, 152.3
2	31 Jan 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-13.9, 153.2
3	31 Jan 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	2600 people	-13.1, 155.2
4	31 Jan 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-13.4, 157.2
5	01 Feb 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	no people	-14.1, 158.5
6	01 Feb 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	-14.8, 160.9
7	01 Feb 2021 12:00	Category 1	120	no people	110000 people	-15.7, 162.6
8	01 Feb 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	190000 people	-16.6, 164
9	02 Feb 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	120000 people	-17.1, 165
10	02 Feb 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	360000 people	-18.4, 166.1
11	02 Feb 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	310000 people	-19.6, 166.8
11	03 Feb 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	270000 people	-21.3, 167.5	New Caledonia
11	03 Feb 2021 12:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	210000 people	-22.4, 167.6
11	04 Feb 2021 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	170000 people	-23.1, 166.9
11	04 Feb 2021 12:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	-23.8, 165.6

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
New Caledonia
Vanuatu

Provinces

Region Province	Country
New Caledonia	New Caledonia
Vanuatu	Vanuatu

Populated places

Name	Country	City class	Population
Port-Vila	Vanuatu	Capital	36000 people
Comm. du Mont-Dore	New Caledonia	City	-
Nouméa	New Caledonia	Capital	83000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Ouvea Ouloup	UVE	7	Civ.	Paved	No	3600
Wanaham	LIF	28	Civ.	Paved	No	3600
Touho	TOU	3	Civ.	Paved	No	3600
Houailou / Nesson	HLU	3	Civ.	Paved	No	3200
Hienghene	HNG	unknown				0
Mare la Roche	MEE	43	Civ.	Paved	No	3200
Dillons Bay	DLY	unknown				0
White Grass		6	Civ.	Paved	Yes	5000
Tanna Island Tanna	TAH	unknown				0
Kone	KNQ	7	Civ.	Paved	No	3200
Port Vila Bauerfield	VLI	20	Civ.	Paved	Yes	8500
Mueo	PDC	unknown				0
La Tontouta	NOU	16	Civ.	Paved	Yes	10600
Quine Hill	UIQ	unknown				0
Noumea / Magenta	GEA	3	Civ.	Paved	Yes	4100
Ile Ouen	IOU	unknown				0
Ile Des Pins Moue	ILP	96	Civ.	Paved	No	3600
South West Bay	SWJ	unknown				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
We		New Caledonia
Baie Ugue	NCBUG	New Caledonia
Baie de Poro	NCPOR	New Caledonia
Kouaoua	NCKOU	New Caledonia
Thialis	NCTHI	New Caledonia
Tadine		New Caledonia
Port Vila	VUVLI	Vanuatu
Nepoui	NCNEP	New Caledonia
Tana Island		Vanuatu
Ducos	NCDUS	New Caledonia
Noumea	NCNOU	New Caledonia
Aneityum Island		Vanuatu
Kuto		New Caledonia

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Gadji, New Caledonia. This height is estimated for 03 Feb 2021 16:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (78 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 11 of 02 Feb 2021 12:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	03 Feb 2021 16:00	Gadji	New Caledonia	0.3
	03 Feb 2021 16:00	Wapan	New Caledonia	0.3
	02 Feb 2021 21:00	Nang	New Caledonia	0.3
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Losuia	Papua New Guinea	0.3
	03 Feb 2021 16:00	Kuto	New Caledonia	0.3
	02 Feb 2021 20:00	Tingeting	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 10:00	Plum	New Caledonia	0.2
	02 Feb 2021 20:00	Wegnec St-Joseph	New Caledonia	0.2
	02 Feb 2021 20:00	Teouta	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 06:00	Dumbea	New Caledonia	0.2
	02 Feb 2021 21:00	Chepenehe	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 00:00	Inagod	New Caledonia	0.2
	02 Feb 2021 23:00	Xode	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 07:00	Bouloupari	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 06:00	Prony	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 08:00	Saint-Louis	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 07:00	Tomo	New Caledonia	0.2
	02 Feb 2021 23:00	Mou	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 14:00	Yate-Village	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 14:00	Waho	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 17:00	Vao	New Caledonia	0.2
	02 Feb 2021 21:00	Havila	New Caledonia	0.2
	02 Feb 2021 20:00	Ognat	New Caledonia	0.2
	02 Feb 2021 19:00	Doking	New Caledonia	0.2
	02 Feb 2021 21:00	We	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 08:00	Noumea	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 08:00	Comm. du Mont-Dore	New Caledonia	0.2
	02 Feb 2021 20:00	Nathalo	New Caledonia	0.2
	02 Feb 2021 22:00	Wadrilla	New Caledonia	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 09:00	Nouville	New Caledonia	0.2
	02 Feb 2021 20:00	Hunete	New Caledonia	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 06:00	Lahimoina	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 06:00	Leileiafa	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	31 Jan 2021 09:00	Pantava	Papua New Guinea	0.2
	03 Feb 2021 09:00	Ouara	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 08:00	Goro	New Caledonia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 09:00	Madaua	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 07:00	Auneri	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 10:00	Hekampan	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 10:00	Tagula	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 02:00	Wabao	New Caledonia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 07:00	Gadaisu	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 09:00	Griffin Point	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 07:00	Bona Bona I	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 04:00	Menaku	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 04:00	Miramas	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 02:00	Medu	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 04:00	Eni	New Caledonia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 09:00	Rewe	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Mirimairau	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 07:00	Nde	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 08:00	Paita	New Caledonia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 20:00	Doueoulou	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 03:00	Nece	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 01:00	Tawainedre	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 01:00	Hnadid	New Caledonia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 07:00	Sidabadu	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Mira	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 09:00	Donuwo	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 07:00	Lawes College	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Apeawa	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Babai	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Avioua	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Veraibari	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Tovai	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Uramu I	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Kaivu	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Mairipepea	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Moravamu	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 08:00	Kamaua	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 18:00	Fayaoue	New Caledonia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 18:00	Ognahu	New Caledonia	0.1
	02 Feb 2021 21:00	Dosip	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 01:00	Ro	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 01:00	Thogone	New Caledonia	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 03:00	Tadine	New Caledonia	0.1
	31 Jan 2021 07:00	Gogsiba	Papua New Guinea	0.1
	03 Feb 2021 04:00	Kurine	New Caledonia	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.