Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for KELVIN-18 in Australia from 16 Feb 2018 06:00 UTC to 18 Feb 2018 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KELVIN-18

in Australia

16 Feb 2018 18 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KELVIN-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries	Australia
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	98 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (17 Feb 21:45 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	98 km/h	0.4 m	n.a.	0.5
HWRF Overall	142 km/h	1.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

142 km/h

Up to 1 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 16 Feb 2018 18:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Australia	1,037

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	16 Feb 2018 06:00	67	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 Feb 2018 12:00	74	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	16 Feb 2018 18:00	98	-		-	-	-	-	-	Australia

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 16 Feb 2018 18:00 UTC

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000
1	16 Feb 2018 06:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 Feb 2018 12:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	16 Feb 2018 18:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Thangoo, Australia. This height is estimated for 17 Feb 2018 21:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 16 Feb 2018 18:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	17 Feb 2018 21:45	Thangoo	Australia	0.4
	17 Feb 2018 08:45	Derby	Australia	0.4
	17 Feb 2018 22:00	Broome	Australia	0.4
	17 Feb 2018 21:30	Waterbank	Australia	0.3
	17 Feb 2018 21:30	Kennedys Cottage	Australia	0.3
	17 Feb 2018 03:00	Dampier	Australia	0.3
	17 Feb 2018 03:00	Karratha	Australia	0.3
	17 Feb 2018 07:30	Pender	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2018 06:45	Kollan I	Australia	0.2
	16 Feb 2018 18:15	East Lewis I	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2018 10:30	Wickham	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2018 10:30	Point Samson	Australia	0.2
	17 Feb 2018 10:30	Cossack	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2018 19:45	Pagatan	Indonesia	0.2
	18 Feb 2018 20:00	Setiroek	Indonesia	0.2
	16 Feb 2018 18:00	Port Hedland	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2018 19:45	Segintong	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2018 16:45	Esperance	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2018 16:45	Doombup	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 19:15	Pardoo	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 18:45	Dunsborough	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 18:45	Quindalup	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 18:45	Vasse	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 18:45	Broadwater	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 18:45	Busselton	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2018 00:45	Fannie Bay	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2018 00:45	Parap	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2018 00:45	Darwin	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2018 00:45	Nightcliff	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2018 00:45	Ludmilla	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2018 00:45	Bagot	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2018 00:45	Leanyer	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2018 00:45	Berrimah	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 18:45	Condon	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 01:15	The Palms	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 01:15	Larrakeyah	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 01:15	Knuckeys Lagoon	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 19:00	Dalyellup	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 19:00	Bunbury	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 19:00	Picton	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 19:00	Eaton	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 19:00	Australind	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 18:15	Kualalupak	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2018 12:00	Mardie	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 19:00	Gunyulgup	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 19:00	Yallingup	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 18:45	Wonnerup	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 18:15	Pagetan	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 18:15	Tambakkarangan	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 18:15	Tabanio	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 18:15	Bawahalajung	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 17:00	Lemanbang	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 17:00	Tambakbaja	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 17:00	Remen	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 17:00	Plosokere	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 17:00	Djenu	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 17:00	Tuban	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2018 20:30	Minarup	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 18:15	Podang	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 18:15	Brondong	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 17:30	Kalipang	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 18:15	Tambak	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 18:15	Sangkapura	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 17:30	Padangan-wetan	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 17:15	Semanding	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 18:45	Aermata	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 18:45	Klampis	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 18:45	Sapulu	Indonesia	0.1
	17 Feb 2018 20:00	Hopetoun	Australia	0.1
	17 Feb 2018 20:00	Jerdacuttup	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 19:15	Hamelin Bay	Australia	0.1
	16 Feb 2018 19:15	Augusta	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 18:45	Tlagabiru	Indonesia	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.