Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico
27 Aug 2021 09 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS NOAA
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Glide number: TC-2021-000122-MEX
    Exposed countries Mexico
    Exposed population 1.4 million in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 139 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (30 Aug 23:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)
    Landfall between
    30 Aug 2021 06:00 - 31 Aug 2021 06:00
    in Mexico

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 148 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 1.5
    Overall 139 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 1.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      148 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 260000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 25 Aug 2021 21:00 139 620 thousand No people Mexico
        Green 2 26 Aug 2021 03:00 130 900 thousand No people Mexico
        Green 3 26 Aug 2021 09:00 130 1.9 million No people Mexico
        Green 4 26 Aug 2021 15:00 139 3.9 million No people Mexico
        Orange 5 26 Aug 2021 21:00 139 4 million 640 thousand Mexico
        Orange 6 27 Aug 2021 03:00 139 2.9 million 510 thousand Mexico
        Orange 7 27 Aug 2021 09:00 148 3.1 million 260 thousand Mexico

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 25 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 11.7, -99.4
          GREEN
          		 2 26 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 11.9, -100.1
          GREEN
          		 3 26 Aug 2021 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12, -100.6
          GREEN
          		 4 26 Aug 2021 15:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 12.5, -100.8
          GREEN
          		 5 26 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.4, -101.7
          GREEN
          		 6 27 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 14.1, -102.6
          GREEN
          		 7 27 Aug 2021 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.6, -103.5
          GREEN
          		 7 27 Aug 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 2000 people 15.3, -104.4
          GREEN
          		 7 28 Aug 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 111 no people 490000 people 16.6, -105.4
          GREEN
          		 7 28 Aug 2021 18:00 Category 1 130 no people 1.7 million people 18.5, -106.1
          GREEN
          		 7 29 Aug 2021 06:00 Category 1 139 no people 1.8 million people 20.6, -106.9
          GREEN
          		 7 29 Aug 2021 18:00 Category 1 148 1100 people 1.1 million people 22.1, -107.9
          ORANGE
          		 7 30 Aug 2021 06:00 Category 1 148 260000 people 720000 people 23.2, -108.9
          GREEN
          		 7 31 Aug 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 111 no people 390000 people 24.9, -110.4 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 7 01 Sep 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 27.1, -111.6
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Mexico

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Baja California Sur Mexico

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          La Paz Baja California Sur Mexico Major city 170000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Punta Colorada PCO unknown 0
          Punta Pescadero 7 0
          La Paz 26 0

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Buenavista Mexico
          La Paz Mexico
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

          TOP

          StormSurge

          0.3 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in La Paz, Mexico. This height is estimated for 30 Aug 2021 23:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (34 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 7 of 27 Aug 2021 09:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          30 Aug 2021 23:00 La Paz Mexico  0.3
          30 Aug 2021 13:00 Punta Arena Mexico  0.3
          30 Aug 2021 12:00 Los Tesos Mexico  0.2
          30 Aug 2021 18:00 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.2
          30 Aug 2021 22:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
          30 Aug 2021 19:00 La Ventana Mexico  0.2
          30 Aug 2021 13:00 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.2
          30 Aug 2021 14:00 La Ribera Mexico  0.2
          30 Aug 2021 23:00 Datilito Mexico  0.2
          31 Aug 2021 00:00 Rosario Mexico  0.2
          30 Aug 2021 17:00 La Trinadad Mexico  0.2
          27 Aug 2021 08:00 Huajapan Mexico  0.2
          31 Aug 2021 09:00 Topolobampo Mexico  0.2
          30 Aug 2021 02:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
          30 Aug 2021 02:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
          30 Aug 2021 10:00 Los Frailes Mexico  0.1
          27 Aug 2021 08:00 El Roble Mexico  0.1
          30 Aug 2021 08:00 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
          30 Aug 2021 14:00 El Castillo Mexico  0.1
          30 Aug 2021 12:00 Altata Mexico  0.1
          31 Aug 2021 08:00 Los Burros Mexico  0.1
          30 Aug 2021 08:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
          30 Aug 2021 23:00 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
          29 Aug 2021 21:00 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
          29 Aug 2021 21:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
          29 Aug 2021 22:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
          27 Aug 2021 09:00 Cachimba Mexico  0.1
          31 Aug 2021 09:00 Santa Marta Mexico  0.1
          31 Aug 2021 09:00 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
          30 Aug 2021 10:00 La Boca Mexico  0.1
          30 Aug 2021 14:00 Las Palmas Mexico  0.1
          31 Aug 2021 09:00 Tambobiche Mexico  0.1
          29 Aug 2021 16:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
          31 Aug 2021 09:00 San Cosme Mexico  0.1