Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 86 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (28 Aug 19:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 58 km/h 0.2 m 280 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 86 km/h 0.5 m 838 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

86 km/h

Up to 80 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 Aug 2021 00:00 UTC (Overall situation)
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico81,613 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 25 Aug 2021 00:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 25 Aug 2021 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 26 Aug 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 27 Aug 2021 00:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 27 Aug 2021 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 28 Aug 2021 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 28 Aug 2021 12:00 108 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 9 29 Aug 2021 00:00 76 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 10 29 Aug 2021 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 30 Aug 2021 00:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 30 Aug 2021 12:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 31 Aug 2021 00:00 58 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h




Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 Aug 2021 00:00 UTC (Overall situation)
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico2,080,666 
100-250 mmMexico16,951,237 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico49,448,221
+
United States38,122 
Mexico49,410,098 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 25 Aug 2021 00:00 175 70 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 2 25 Aug 2021 12:00 215 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 26 Aug 2021 00:00 597 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 664 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 5 27 Aug 2021 00:00 218 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 6 27 Aug 2021 12:00 144 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 7 28 Aug 2021 00:00 215 30 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 8 28 Aug 2021 12:00 177 570 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 9 29 Aug 2021 00:00 299 160 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 10 29 Aug 2021 12:00 189 590 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 11 30 Aug 2021 00:00 356 360 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 12 30 Aug 2021 12:00 302 70 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 13 31 Aug 2021 00:00 280 1.9 million
- - - United States, Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in La Manzanilla, Mexico. This height is estimated for 28 Aug 2021 19:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 Aug 2021 00:00 UTC (Overall situation)
LevelCountryPopulation 
0.25 - 0.5 mMexico24,687 

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 31 Aug 2021 00:00 UTC (Overall situation)
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
28 Aug 2021 19:00 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.5
28 Aug 2021 20:15 Monteon Mexico  0.3
28 Aug 2021 20:15 La Lima Mexico  0.3
31 Aug 2021 00:45 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 06:15 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 21:15 Ipala Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 21:15 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 02:30 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 00:30 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
25 Aug 2021 16:15 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 18:45 Chamela Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 20:15 Chola Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 03:15 San Blas Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 03:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 15:45 La Choya Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 20:45 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 00:30 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 15:45 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 02:30 San Francisco Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 04:00 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 04:00 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 06:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 20:45 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 07:30 El Tule Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 07:30 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 06:15 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 12:45 Novillero Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 00:15 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 20:45 Corrales Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 03:45 Buenaventura Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 15:15 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 18:45 Cuitzmala Mexico  0.2
27 Aug 2021 21:00 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 20:45 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 17:15 El Castillo Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 01:30 Queretaro Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 02:45 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 12:30 Cuyutlan Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 23:15 Punta Mita Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 22:30 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 22:30 El Guatamota Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 15:45 Barra de Navidad Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 23:00 Pizota Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 01:00 Guasimas Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 05:30 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 14:15 Santiago Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 14:15 Manzanillo Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 12:30 El Ciruelo Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 23:15 Puerto Vallarta Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 23:30 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 23:30 Punta Arena Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 15:30 Los Tesos Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 15:30 Los Frailes Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 08:30 La Puerta Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 15:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 07:00 Ojo de Liebre Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 01:45 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 02:30 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 07:00 Aguaje Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 03:00 La Playa Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 01:15 Liliba Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 08:30 Jarilla Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 02:45 La Paz Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 02:00 La Ribera Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 14:45 Chupadero Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 02:45 Datilito Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 14:45 El Real Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 07:45 Florida Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 21:45 La Florida Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 16:30 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 08:15 Dimas Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:15 Empalme Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 15:30 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 16:00 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 16:45 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:45 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 03:00 Coronado United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 03:00 Imperial Beach United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 03:00 Boal United States  0.1
27 Aug 2021 05:30 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 15:45 Estrecho Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 02:15 Rancho Boca de San Jose Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:00 La Fortuna Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:00 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:15 Guaymas Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 23:30 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:45 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 15:15 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 02:15 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 16:30 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 15:15 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 07:30 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 00:00 Acapulco Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 00:00 El Marques Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:15 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:00 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 04:15 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:30 La Boca Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:15 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 07:30 Cabo Punta Banda Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 08:30 Estero la Bocana Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 17:00 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 17:00 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 02:30 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 16:00 Las Palmas Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 15:00 Mazatlan Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 08:15 Marmol Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 04:30 San Diego United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 02:30 Santa Marie Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 16:00 Los Burros Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 02:30 Altata Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 10:00 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:30 San Jose Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 03:45 Colonia Camalu Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 16:45 Tecomate Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:00 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
25 Aug 2021 06:45 Tierra Colorada Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 01:30 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:15 Mulege Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 02:45 Rosario Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 04:00 Cayaca Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 03:45 Azure Vista United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 03:45 Ocean Beach United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 03:45 Fort Rosecrans United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 03:45 Roseville United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 03:45 Loma Portal United States  0.1
29 Aug 2021 10:15 Barron Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 16:30 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:45 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:45 Santa Catarina Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 15:30 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 23:30 Molino Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:15 Los Dolores Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 15:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 02:30 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 23:30 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 23:30 Santa Marta Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 03:30 El Sauzal Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 03:30 Ensenada Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:15 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 01:30 La Ventana Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 13:00 Las Trojitas Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 05:45 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 17:00 Rancho San Francisco Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 15:45 Cedros Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 03:45 Apisa Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:30 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 04:30 Rosarito Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 18:45 Erendria Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 02:45 Playa Oceano Pacifico Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 23:45 Tripui Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 16:45 Ligui Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 16:45 Loreto Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 04:15 El Barril Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 06:30 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 06:30 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 16:45 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:15 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
25 Aug 2021 05:45 Chula Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 08:00 Zihuatanejo Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 07:00 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 04:15 El Desemboque Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:30 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:15 Tambobiche Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 16:15 La Trinadad Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 17:00 Marquelia Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 01:45 Mission Beach United States  0.1
28 Aug 2021 15:15 Rancho Cepeda Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 21:00 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 06:15 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 06:15 Cunano Mexico  0.1
25 Aug 2021 05:45 El Papayo Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 09:45 Quinones Mexico  0.1