Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States, Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 140 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (28 Aug 18:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 54 km/h 0.2 m 153 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 140 km/h 0.4 m 538 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 Aug 2021 00:00 UTC (Overall situation)
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States, Mexico87,082
+
United States27 
Mexico87,054 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 26 Aug 2021 00:00 65 -
- - - - - United States
GREEN 3 26 Aug 2021 06:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 26 Aug 2021 18:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 27 Aug 2021 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 27 Aug 2021 06:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 27 Aug 2021 12:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 27 Aug 2021 18:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 28 Aug 2021 00:00 104 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 11 28 Aug 2021 06:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 28 Aug 2021 12:00 140 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 13 28 Aug 2021 18:00 140 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 14 29 Aug 2021 00:00 65 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 15 29 Aug 2021 06:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 29 Aug 2021 12:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 29 Aug 2021 18:00 50 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 30 Aug 2021 00:00 61 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 19 30 Aug 2021 06:00 47 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 30 Aug 2021 12:00 43 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 30 Aug 2021 18:00 40 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 31 Aug 2021 00:00 54 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h
Download:

Rainfall

538 mm

Up to 24.9 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 31 Aug 2021 00:00 UTC (Overall situation)
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico1,859,611 
100-250 mmMexico23,069,183 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico38,183,998
+
United States790,487 
Mexico37,393,510 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 25 Aug 2021 18:00 161 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 26 Aug 2021 00:00 91 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 26 Aug 2021 06:00 297 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 26 Aug 2021 12:00 146 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 26 Aug 2021 18:00 240 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 27 Aug 2021 00:00 145 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 27 Aug 2021 06:00 173 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 27 Aug 2021 12:00 177 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 27 Aug 2021 18:00 108 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 28 Aug 2021 00:00 124 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 11 28 Aug 2021 06:00 157 50 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 12 28 Aug 2021 12:00 167 170 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 13 28 Aug 2021 18:00 132 80 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 14 29 Aug 2021 00:00 94 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 15 29 Aug 2021 06:00 82 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 16 29 Aug 2021 12:00 164 50 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 17 29 Aug 2021 18:00 97 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 18 30 Aug 2021 00:00 103 Few people
- - - - Mexico
Blue 19 30 Aug 2021 06:00 120 Few people
- - - - Mexico
Blue 20 30 Aug 2021 12:00 126 8 thousand
- - - - Mexico
Blue 21 30 Aug 2021 18:00 83 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 22 31 Aug 2021 00:00 153 600 thousand
- - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in Chola, Mexico. This height is estimated for 28 Aug 2021 18:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 31 Aug 2021 00:00 UTC (Overall situation)
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
28 Aug 2021 18:30 Chola Mexico  0.4
28 Aug 2021 18:30 Chamela Mexico  0.3
28 Aug 2021 12:00 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.3
28 Aug 2021 19:15 Cuitzmala Mexico  0.3
28 Aug 2021 18:45 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.3
28 Aug 2021 23:30 Cuantla Mexico  0.3
28 Aug 2021 22:30 Monteon Mexico  0.3
28 Aug 2021 22:45 La Lima Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 18:30 Barra de Navidad Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 23:00 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 21:15 Ipala Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 00:00 Novillero Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 18:30 La Choya Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 00:15 San Francisco Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 21:45 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 23:15 El Tule Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 23:15 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 00:00 Punta Mita Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 18:30 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 18:30 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 23:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 22:00 San Blas Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 22:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 19:45 Santiago Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 19:45 Manzanillo Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 20:45 Corrales Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 23:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 23:00 Pizota Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 23:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 23:00 Puerto Vallarta Mexico  0.2
31 Aug 2021 09:15 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
26 Aug 2021 00:45 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 00:15 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 16:30 Buenaventura Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 00:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 23:30 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 02:30 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 00:15 Caimanero Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 00:15 Jarilla Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 00:15 San Rafael Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 01:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 00:30 El Castillo Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 22:45 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 16:15 San Juanico Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 16:15 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 00:15 Liliba Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 23:00 Dimas Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 01:15 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 01:00 La Ribera Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 01:00 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 23:30 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:45 Florida Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 11:00 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 23:45 Guasimas Mexico  0.1
27 Aug 2021 05:30 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:30 La Fortuna Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:30 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 23:45 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 22:15 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:30 Estrecho Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 17:00 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 17:00 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:45 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 16:45 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 03:30 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:00 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 01:15 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:15 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:15 Santa Marie Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 17:15 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 01:30 La Playa Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 22:00 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:45 Marmol Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:30 Punta Arena Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 03:30 Queretaro Mexico  0.1
25 Aug 2021 23:30 Tierra Colorada Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:30 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 01:00 Tecomate Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:30 El Ciruelo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:30 Cuyutlan Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 20:45 Altata Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:45 Azure Vista United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:45 Ocean Beach United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:45 Fort Rosecrans United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:45 Roseville United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:45 Loma Portal United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:45 San Diego United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:45 Coronado United States  0.1
29 Aug 2021 17:15 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 02:00 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:45 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:00 Mazatlan Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 12:15 Bahia de Tortugas Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 16:30 Los Tesos Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 16:30 Los Frailes Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 20:30 La Boca Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 23:45 Empalme Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 18:45 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 02:15 Mulege Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:00 Barron Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 03:15 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 17:15 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:15 Cabo Punta Banda Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:00 La Paz Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 01:15 Puerto Libertad Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 06:45 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:45 El Desemboque Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 11:15 El Real Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 05:30 Ojo de Liebre Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 05:30 Aguaje Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:15 Guaymas Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:45 Imperial Beach United States  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:45 Boal United States  0.1
29 Aug 2021 22:45 Acapulco Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 22:45 El Marques Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 17:15 Datilito Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 18:15 San Jose Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:00 La Ventana Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:30 Playa Oceano Pacifico Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 13:30 Cedros Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 06:15 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:45 Ensenada Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:45 El Barril Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:45 Rosarito Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:15 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 06:00 Molino Lacy Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 02:00 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 02:00 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:45 Rancho Cepeda Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:45 Loreto Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 22:45 Las Palmas Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 17:00 Ligui Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 17:00 Tripui Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 02:00 Estero la Bocana Mexico  0.1
31 Aug 2021 06:00 Molino Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 16:45 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:15 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:15 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:45 Rancho San Francisco Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 17:15 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 02:45 Santa Catarina Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 18:00 La Florida Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 06:00 El Sauzal Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 21:15 Chula Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 01:45 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 01:45 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 12:30 Chupadero Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 01:45 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 02:00 Bahia Asuncion Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 04:30 Colonia Camalu Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 05:30 La Mision Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:45 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 01:45 Quinones Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 00:30 Los Dolores Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 13:15 Erendria Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 10:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
25 Aug 2021 23:30 El Papayo Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 02:00 El Tomale Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 02:00 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 01:45 Cunano Mexico  0.1