Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for OLAF-21
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone OLAF-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Glide number: TC-2021-000122-MEX
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population 310 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 157 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.7 m (10 Sep 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)
Landfall between
09 Sep 2021 21:00 - 10 Sep 2021 03:00

in Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
Current 139 km/h 0.7 m n.a. 0.5
Overall 157 km/h 0.7 m n.a. 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

Wind

139 km/h Current Max.

Up to 310000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Green 1 07 Sep 2021 21:00 120 No people No people
Green 2 08 Sep 2021 03:00 120 80 thousand No people Mexico
Green 3 08 Sep 2021 09:00 120 70 thousand No people Mexico
Green 4 08 Sep 2021 15:00 111 No people No people
Green 5 08 Sep 2021 21:00 111 120 thousand No people Mexico
Green 6 09 Sep 2021 03:00 111 280 thousand No people Mexico
Green 7 09 Sep 2021 09:00 130 320 thousand No people Mexico
Orange 8 09 Sep 2021 15:00 139 580 thousand 240 thousand Mexico
Orange 9 09 Sep 2021 21:00 157 640 thousand 300 thousand Mexico
Orange 10 10 Sep 2021 03:00 157 650 thousand 580 thousand Mexico
Green 11 10 Sep 2021 09:00 139 630 thousand 310 thousand Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category
(SSHS)
Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Population in
Tropical Storm
or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 07 Sep 2021 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 18.2, -107.9
GREEN
2 08 Sep 2021 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 18.2, -107.4
GREEN
3 08 Sep 2021 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 18.5, -107.1
GREEN
4 08 Sep 2021 15:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 18.9, -107.5
GREEN
5 08 Sep 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 19.4, -107.7
GREEN
6 09 Sep 2021 03:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 20, -108
GREEN
7 09 Sep 2021 09:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 20.5, -108
GREEN
8 09 Sep 2021 15:00 Category 1 120 no people 300000 people 21.2, -108.3
ORANGE
9 09 Sep 2021 21:00 Category 1 148 290000 people 570000 people 22.2, -108.9
ORANGE
10 10 Sep 2021 03:00 Category 2 157 570000 people 580000 people 23, -109.6 Mexico
GREEN
11 10 Sep 2021 09:00 Category 1 139 5600 people 620000 people 23.7, -110.7 Mexico
GREEN
11 10 Sep 2021 18:00 Category 1 120 <1000 people 53000 people 24.4, -111.9 Mexico
GREEN
11 11 Sep 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 24.7, -113.3
GREEN
11 11 Sep 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 24.5, -114.5
GREEN
11 12 Sep 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 23.9, -115.6
GREEN
11 12 Sep 2021 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 23, -116.9
GREEN
11 13 Sep 2021 06:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 22.1, -118.2
GREEN
11 14 Sep 2021 06:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 21, -120.9
GREEN
11 15 Sep 2021 06:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 20.5, -122.7
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province Country
Baja California Sur Mexico

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Cabo San Lucas 139 0
Los Cabos International SJD 109 Civ. Paved Yes 9800

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
San Lucas Mexico
San Hose Del Cabo Mexico
Puerto Madalena Mexico

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.7m in Puerto Cortes, Mexico. This height is estimated for 10 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (29 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 11 of 10 Sep 2021 09:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Sep 2021 18:00 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.7
10 Sep 2021 17:00 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.4
10 Sep 2021 10:00 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.4
10 Sep 2021 16:00 Quinones Mexico  0.4
10 Sep 2021 03:00 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 14:00 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 21:00 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 07:00 Todos Santos Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 03:00 La Fortuna Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 11:00 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 11:00 Cunano Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 13:00 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 06:00 El Pescadero Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 12:00 El Tomale Mexico  0.3
10 Sep 2021 20:00 El Guatamota Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 04:00 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 03:00 El Tule Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 05:00 La Tinaja Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 21:00 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 03:00 Los Frailes Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 22:00 San Carlos Mexico  0.2
10 Sep 2021 04:00 San Lucas Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 05:00 Pozo de Cota Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 03:00 Los Tesos Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 04:00 La Ribera Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 04:00 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 10:00 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 08:00 Datilito Mexico  0.1
10 Sep 2021 03:00 Punta Arena Mexico  0.1