Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for OLAF-21
in Mexico
10 Sep 2021 09 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS NOAA
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone OLAF-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Glide number: TC-2021-000122-MEX
    Exposed countries Mexico
    Exposed population 310 thousand in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 157 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.7 m (10 Sep 18:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)
    Landfall between
    09 Sep 2021 21:00 - 10 Sep 2021 03:00
    in Mexico

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 139 km/h 0.7 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 157 km/h 0.7 m n.a. 1.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      139 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 310000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 07 Sep 2021 21:00 120 No people No people
        Green 2 08 Sep 2021 03:00 120 80 thousand No people Mexico
        Green 3 08 Sep 2021 09:00 120 70 thousand No people Mexico
        Green 4 08 Sep 2021 15:00 111 No people No people
        Green 5 08 Sep 2021 21:00 111 120 thousand No people Mexico
        Green 6 09 Sep 2021 03:00 111 280 thousand No people Mexico
        Green 7 09 Sep 2021 09:00 130 320 thousand No people Mexico
        Orange 8 09 Sep 2021 15:00 139 580 thousand 240 thousand Mexico
        Orange 9 09 Sep 2021 21:00 157 640 thousand 300 thousand Mexico
        Orange 10 10 Sep 2021 03:00 157 650 thousand 580 thousand Mexico
        Green 11 10 Sep 2021 09:00 139 630 thousand 310 thousand Mexico

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 07 Sep 2021 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 18.2, -107.9
          GREEN
          		 2 08 Sep 2021 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 18.2, -107.4
          GREEN
          		 3 08 Sep 2021 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 18.5, -107.1
          GREEN
          		 4 08 Sep 2021 15:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 18.9, -107.5
          GREEN
          		 5 08 Sep 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 19.4, -107.7
          GREEN
          		 6 09 Sep 2021 03:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 20, -108
          GREEN
          		 7 09 Sep 2021 09:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 20.5, -108
          GREEN
          		 8 09 Sep 2021 15:00 Category 1 120 no people 300000 people 21.2, -108.3
          ORANGE
          		 9 09 Sep 2021 21:00 Category 1 148 290000 people 570000 people 22.2, -108.9
          ORANGE
          		 10 10 Sep 2021 03:00 Category 2 157 570000 people 580000 people 23, -109.6 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 11 10 Sep 2021 09:00 Category 1 139 5600 people 620000 people 23.7, -110.7 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 11 10 Sep 2021 18:00 Category 1 120 <1000 people 53000 people 24.4, -111.9 Mexico
          GREEN
          		 11 11 Sep 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 24.7, -113.3
          GREEN
          		 11 11 Sep 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 24.5, -114.5
          GREEN
          		 11 12 Sep 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 23.9, -115.6
          GREEN
          		 11 12 Sep 2021 18:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 23, -116.9
          GREEN
          		 11 13 Sep 2021 06:00 Tropical depression 46 no people no people 22.1, -118.2
          GREEN
          		 11 14 Sep 2021 06:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 21, -120.9
          GREEN
          		 11 15 Sep 2021 06:00 Tropical depression 37 no people no people 20.5, -122.7
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Mexico

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Baja California Sur Mexico

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          Cabo San Lucas 139 0
          Los Cabos International SJD 109 Civ. Paved Yes 9800

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          San Lucas Mexico
          San Hose Del Cabo Mexico
          Puerto Madalena Mexico
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

          TOP

          StormSurge

          0.7 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.7m in Puerto Cortes, Mexico. This height is estimated for 10 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (29 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 11 of 10 Sep 2021 09:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          10 Sep 2021 18:00 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.7
          10 Sep 2021 17:00 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.4
          10 Sep 2021 10:00 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.4
          10 Sep 2021 16:00 Quinones Mexico  0.4
          10 Sep 2021 03:00 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.3
          10 Sep 2021 14:00 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.3
          10 Sep 2021 21:00 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.3
          10 Sep 2021 07:00 Todos Santos Mexico  0.3
          10 Sep 2021 03:00 La Fortuna Mexico  0.3
          10 Sep 2021 11:00 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.3
          10 Sep 2021 11:00 Cunano Mexico  0.3
          10 Sep 2021 13:00 Rancho Conejo Mexico  0.3
          10 Sep 2021 06:00 El Pescadero Mexico  0.3
          10 Sep 2021 12:00 El Tomale Mexico  0.3
          10 Sep 2021 20:00 El Guatamota Mexico  0.2
          10 Sep 2021 04:00 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.2
          10 Sep 2021 03:00 El Tule Mexico  0.2
          10 Sep 2021 05:00 La Tinaja Mexico  0.2
          10 Sep 2021 21:00 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.2
          10 Sep 2021 03:00 Los Frailes Mexico  0.2
          10 Sep 2021 22:00 San Carlos Mexico  0.2
          10 Sep 2021 04:00 San Lucas Mexico  0.1
          10 Sep 2021 05:00 Pozo de Cota Mexico  0.1
          10 Sep 2021 03:00 Los Tesos Mexico  0.1
          10 Sep 2021 04:00 La Ribera Mexico  0.1
          10 Sep 2021 04:00 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
          10 Sep 2021 10:00 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
          10 Sep 2021 08:00 Datilito Mexico  0.1
          10 Sep 2021 03:00 Punta Arena Mexico  0.1