Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone for OLAF-21 in Mexico from 07 Sep 2021 21:00 UTC to 11 Sep 2021 09:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone for OLAF-21

in Mexico

11 Sep 2021 09 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone OLAF-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2021-000122-MEX
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	310 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	157 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (10 Sep 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)
Landfall	between 09 Sep 2021 21:00 - 10 Sep 2021 03:00 in Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	56 km/h	0.4 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	157 km/h	0.4 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

56 km/h Current Max.

Up to 620000 people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	07 Sep 2021 21:00	120	No people	No people
2	08 Sep 2021 03:00	120	80 thousand	No people	Mexico
3	08 Sep 2021 09:00	120	70 thousand	No people	Mexico
4	08 Sep 2021 15:00	111	No people	No people
5	08 Sep 2021 21:00	111	120 thousand	No people	Mexico
6	09 Sep 2021 03:00	111	280 thousand	No people	Mexico
7	09 Sep 2021 09:00	130	320 thousand	No people	Mexico
8	09 Sep 2021 15:00	139	580 thousand	240 thousand	Mexico
9	09 Sep 2021 21:00	157	640 thousand	300 thousand	Mexico
10	10 Sep 2021 03:00	157	650 thousand	580 thousand	Mexico
11	10 Sep 2021 09:00	139	630 thousand	310 thousand	Mexico
12	10 Sep 2021 15:00	111	620 thousand	310 thousand	Mexico
13	10 Sep 2021 21:00	74	620 thousand	310 thousand	Mexico
14	11 Sep 2021 03:00	56	620 thousand	310 thousand	Mexico
15	11 Sep 2021 09:00	56	620 thousand	310 thousand	Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	07 Sep 2021 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	18.2, -107.9
2	08 Sep 2021 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	18.2, -107.4
3	08 Sep 2021 09:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	18.5, -107.1
4	08 Sep 2021 15:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	18.9, -107.5
5	08 Sep 2021 21:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	19.4, -107.7
6	09 Sep 2021 03:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	20, -108
7	09 Sep 2021 09:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	20.5, -108
8	09 Sep 2021 15:00	Category 1	120	no people	300000 people	21.2, -108.3
9	09 Sep 2021 21:00	Category 1	148	290000 people	570000 people	22.2, -108.9
10	10 Sep 2021 03:00	Category 2	157	570000 people	580000 people	23, -109.6	Mexico
11	10 Sep 2021 09:00	Category 1	139	5600 people	620000 people	23.7, -110.7	Mexico
12	10 Sep 2021 15:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	310000 people	24.1, -111.3	Mexico
13	10 Sep 2021 21:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	1900 people	24.6, -112.7
14	11 Sep 2021 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	24.7, -113.3
15	11 Sep 2021 09:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	24.4, -114
15	11 Sep 2021 18:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	24.2, -114.6
15	12 Sep 2021 06:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	23.7, -115.6
15	12 Sep 2021 18:00	Tropical depression	37	no people	no people	22.8, -116.9
15	13 Sep 2021 06:00	Tropical depression	28	no people	no people	21.5, -118.2
15	13 Sep 2021 18:00	Tropical depression	28	no people	no people	20.6, -119.4
15	14 Sep 2021 06:00	Tropical depression	28	no people	no people	20.1, -120.3

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Source: GADM and GHSL

Provinces

Source: GADM and GHSL

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

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