Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MAWAR-23
in Guam
26 May 2023 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS JTWC
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone MAWAR-23 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Exposed countries Guam
    Exposed population 170 thousand in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 296 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.8 m (24 May 08:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Medium (Guam)

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 269 km/h 0.1 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 296 km/h 0.8 m n.a. 2.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

    TOP

    Wind

      269 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 170000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Orange 1 20 May 2023 00:00 167 230 thousand 50 thousand Northern Mariana Islands
        Orange 2 20 May 2023 06:00 157 230 thousand 30 thousand Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
        Orange 3 20 May 2023 12:00 167 230 thousand 50 thousand Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
        Orange 4 20 May 2023 18:00 167 230 thousand 170 thousand Guam
        Orange 5 21 May 2023 00:00 176 230 thousand 170 thousand Guam
        Orange 6 21 May 2023 06:00 167 230 thousand 170 thousand Guam
        Orange 7 21 May 2023 12:00 176 230 thousand 170 thousand Guam
        Orange 8 21 May 2023 18:00 176 230 thousand 170 thousand Guam
        Red 9 22 May 2023 00:00 185 230 thousand 170 thousand Guam
        Red 10 22 May 2023 06:00 204 230 thousand 170 thousand Guam
        Red 11 22 May 2023 12:00 194 230 thousand 160 thousand Guam
        Red 12 22 May 2023 18:00 222 230 thousand 170 thousand Guam
        Red 13 23 May 2023 00:00 231 230 thousand 170 thousand Guam
        Red 14 23 May 2023 06:00 259 230 thousand 170 thousand Guam
        Red 15 23 May 2023 12:00 259 230 thousand 170 thousand Guam
        Red 16 23 May 2023 18:00 231 380 thousand 170 thousand Guam
        Red 17 24 May 2023 00:00 222 340 thousand 170 thousand Guam
        Red 18 24 May 2023 06:00 222 240 thousand 170 thousand Guam
        Red 19 24 May 2023 12:00 222 490 thousand 170 thousand Guam
        Red 20 24 May 2023 18:00 241 320 thousand 170 thousand Guam
        Green 21 25 May 2023 00:00 269 500 thousand 170 thousand Guam
        Green 22 25 May 2023 06:00 278 1.3 million 170 thousand Guam
        Green 23 25 May 2023 12:00 287 2.5 million 170 thousand Guam
        Green 24 25 May 2023 18:00 287 3.5 million 170 thousand Guam
        Green 25 26 May 2023 00:00 296 470 thousand 170 thousand Guam
        Green 26 26 May 2023 06:00 287 450 thousand 170 thousand Guam
        Green 27 26 May 2023 12:00 269 480 thousand 170 thousand Guam

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 20 May 2023 00:00 Tropical depression 46 no people 2400 people 5.4, 149.1
          GREEN
          		 2 20 May 2023 06:00 Tropical depression 56 no people 2400 people 5.7, 149.2
          GREEN
          		 3 20 May 2023 12:00 Tropical storm 65 no people 4400 people 5.7, 149.3
          GREEN
          		 4 20 May 2023 18:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 4400 people 6.1, 149.2
          GREEN
          		 5 21 May 2023 00:00 Tropical storm 93 no people 5500 people 6.8, 149.2
          GREEN
          		 6 21 May 2023 06:00 Tropical storm 111 no people 6000 people 7.6, 148.7
          GREEN
          		 7 21 May 2023 12:00 Category 1 130 <1000 people 2700 people 8, 148.3
          GREEN
          		 8 21 May 2023 18:00 Category 1 139 no people <1000 people 8.5, 148.1
          GREEN
          		 9 22 May 2023 00:00 Category 2 157 no people <1000 people 9.1, 147.7
          GREEN
          		 10 22 May 2023 06:00 Category 2 167 no people <1000 people 9.5, 147
          GREEN
          		 11 22 May 2023 12:00 Category 2 167 no people <1000 people 10, 146.9
          GREEN
          		 12 22 May 2023 18:00 Category 3 204 no people no people 10.5, 146.8
          GREEN
          		 13 23 May 2023 00:00 Category 4 213 no people 170000 people 11.2, 146.9
          GREEN
          		 14 23 May 2023 06:00 Category 4 250 no people 220000 people 11.8, 146.5
          RED
          		 15 23 May 2023 12:00 Category 4 250 170000 people 220000 people 12.2, 146.1
          RED
          		 16 23 May 2023 18:00 Category 4 222 170000 people 220000 people 12.5, 145.7
          RED
          		 17 24 May 2023 00:00 Category 4 222 170000 people 220000 people 13, 145.5
          RED
          		 18 24 May 2023 06:00 Category 4 222 170000 people 220000 people 13.6, 145.2
          RED
          		 19 24 May 2023 12:00 Category 4 222 170000 people 220000 people 13.8, 144.7
          RED
          		 20 24 May 2023 18:00 Category 4 241 76000 people 220000 people 14.1, 144.1
          GREEN
          		 21 25 May 2023 00:00 Category 4 250 no people 220000 people 14.3, 143.5
          GREEN
          		 22 25 May 2023 06:00 Category 5 269 no people 220000 people 14.5, 142.8
          GREEN
          		 23 25 May 2023 12:00 Category 5 278 no people no people 14.7, 141.6
          GREEN
          		 24 25 May 2023 18:00 Category 5 287 no people no people 14.9, 140.5
          GREEN
          		 25 26 May 2023 00:00 Category 5 296 no people no people 15.1, 139.3
          GREEN
          		 26 26 May 2023 06:00 Category 5 287 no people no people 15.3, 138
          GREEN
          		 27 26 May 2023 12:00 Category 5 269 no people no people 15.7, 136.5
          GREEN
          		 27 27 May 2023 00:00 Category 4 250 no people no people 16.3, 133.8
          GREEN
          		 27 27 May 2023 12:00 Category 5 259 no people no people 16.9, 131.3
          GREEN
          		 27 28 May 2023 00:00 Category 4 241 no people no people 17.6, 129.2
          GREEN
          		 27 28 May 2023 12:00 Category 4 222 no people 140000 people 18.3, 127.5
          GREEN
          		 27 29 May 2023 12:00 Category 2 176 no people 150000 people 19.8, 125.2
          GREEN
          		 27 30 May 2023 12:00 Category 1 139 no people 130000 people 21, 124.6
          GREEN
          		 27 31 May 2023 12:00 Category 1 120 no people no people 22.1, 125.2
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
          Guam 170000 people

          Provinces

          Region Province Country Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
          Guam Guam 170000 people

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Hagåtña Guam Capital 1000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          A.B. Won Pat International GUM 91 0
          Andersen AFB UAM 191 0
          Rota I International ROP 185 Civ. Paved Yes 6000

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Apra Harbor Guam
          Apra (Agana) GUAPR Guam
          Rota Northern Mariana Islands
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

          TOP

          StormSurge

          0.8 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.8m in Camp Quezon, Guam. This height is estimated for 24 May 2023 08:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (43 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 20 of 24 May 2023 18:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          24 May 2023 08:00 Camp Quezon Guam  0.8
          24 May 2023 08:00 Harmon Village Guam  0.8
          24 May 2023 08:00 Oceanview Guam  0.8
          24 May 2023 08:00 Dededo Guam  0.8
          24 May 2023 08:00 South Acres Guam  0.8
          24 May 2023 08:00 Asbeco Guam  0.8
          24 May 2023 08:00 Adacao Guam  0.8
          24 May 2023 08:00 Ipapao Guam  0.8
          24 May 2023 08:00 Potts Junction Guam  0.8
          24 May 2023 08:00 Perez Acres Guam  0.8
          24 May 2023 08:00 Spring Hill Subdivision Guam  0.8
          24 May 2023 08:00 Upi Guam  0.8
          24 May 2023 07:00 Gayinero Guam  0.8
          24 May 2023 07:00 Asatdas Guam  0.8
          24 May 2023 07:00 Lupog Guam  0.8
          24 May 2023 09:00 Asan Guam  0.7
          24 May 2023 09:00 Hagatna Guam  0.7
          24 May 2023 09:00 Sinajana Guam  0.7
          24 May 2023 09:00 Mongmong Guam  0.7
          24 May 2023 09:00 Yona Guam  0.7
          24 May 2023 09:00 Tamuning Guam  0.7
          24 May 2023 09:00 Barrigada Guam  0.7
          24 May 2023 10:00 Lockwood Terrace Guam  0.6
          24 May 2023 10:00 Camp Bright Guam  0.6
          24 May 2023 10:00 Piti Guam  0.6
          24 May 2023 09:00 Talofofo Guam  0.4
          24 May 2023 09:00 Ylig Guam  0.4
          24 May 2023 09:00 Agat Guam  0.4
          24 May 2023 09:00 Santa Rita Guam  0.4
          24 May 2023 08:00 Inarajan Guam  0.3
          24 May 2023 10:00 Songsong Northern Mariana Islands  0.3
          24 May 2023 10:00 Teteto Northern Mariana Islands  0.3
          24 May 2023 09:00 Rota Northern Mariana Islands  0.3
          24 May 2023 09:00 Sinapalo Northern Mariana Islands  0.3
          24 May 2023 09:00 Umatac Guam  0.2
          24 May 2023 09:00 Merizo Guam  0.2
          28 May 2023 09:00 Wright Philippines  0.1
          28 May 2023 08:00 Pequit Philippines  0.1
          28 May 2023 08:00 Pabanong Philippines  0.1
          28 May 2023 08:00 Hinabangan Philippines  0.1
          28 May 2023 08:00 Bangon Philippines  0.1
          28 May 2023 04:00 Mualbual Philippines  0.1
          28 May 2023 09:00 Catbalogan Philippines  0.1