Overall Red Tropical Cyclone for MAWAR-23 in Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Philippines, Japan, China from 20 May 2023 00:00 UTC to 03 Jun 2023 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red Tropical Cyclone for MAWAR-23

in Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Philippines, Japan, China

03 Jun 2023 00 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MAWAR-23 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Exposed countries	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Philippines, Japan, China
Exposed population	170 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	296 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.8 m (24 May 08:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Guam)

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	65 km/h	0.8 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	296 km/h	0.8 m	n.a.	2.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

65 km/h Current Max.

Up to 50.8 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	20 May 2023 00:00	167	230 thousand	50 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands
2	20 May 2023 06:00	157	230 thousand	30 thousand	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
3	20 May 2023 12:00	167	230 thousand	50 thousand	Guam, Northern Mariana Islands
4	20 May 2023 18:00	167	230 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
5	21 May 2023 00:00	176	230 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
6	21 May 2023 06:00	167	230 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
7	21 May 2023 12:00	176	230 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
8	21 May 2023 18:00	176	230 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
9	22 May 2023 00:00	185	230 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
10	22 May 2023 06:00	204	230 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
11	22 May 2023 12:00	194	230 thousand	160 thousand	Guam
12	22 May 2023 18:00	222	230 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
13	23 May 2023 00:00	231	230 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
14	23 May 2023 06:00	259	230 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
15	23 May 2023 12:00	259	230 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
16	23 May 2023 18:00	231	380 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
17	24 May 2023 00:00	222	340 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
18	24 May 2023 06:00	222	240 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
19	24 May 2023 12:00	222	490 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
20	24 May 2023 18:00	241	320 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
21	25 May 2023 00:00	269	500 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
22	25 May 2023 06:00	278	1.3 million	170 thousand	Guam
23	25 May 2023 12:00	287	2.5 million	170 thousand	Guam
24	25 May 2023 18:00	287	3.5 million	170 thousand	Guam
25	26 May 2023 00:00	296	470 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
26	26 May 2023 06:00	287	450 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
27	26 May 2023 12:00	269	480 thousand	170 thousand	Guam
28	26 May 2023 18:00	269	1.6 million	170 thousand	Guam
29	27 May 2023 00:00	250	2.6 million	170 thousand	Guam
30	27 May 2023 06:00	250	7.9 million	170 thousand	Guam
31	27 May 2023 12:00	241	14.2 million	170 thousand	Guam
32	27 May 2023 18:00	222	23.3 million	170 thousand	Guam
33	28 May 2023 00:00	204	8.3 million	170 thousand	Guam
34	28 May 2023 06:00	194	28.1 million	170 thousand	Guam
35	28 May 2023 12:00	194	5.1 million	230 thousand	Japan, Guam
36	28 May 2023 18:00	194	10.4 million	270 thousand	Japan, Guam
37	29 May 2023 00:00	194	16.1 million	230 thousand	Japan, Guam
38	29 May 2023 06:00	194	11.1 million	220 thousand	Japan, Guam
39	29 May 2023 12:00	185	3.4 million	170 thousand	Japan, Guam
40	29 May 2023 18:00	167	2.2 million	170 thousand	Japan, Guam
41	30 May 2023 00:00	148	1.9 million	170 thousand	Guam
42	30 May 2023 06:00	139	2.2 million	170 thousand	Guam
43	30 May 2023 12:00	130	1.8 million	170 thousand	Guam
44	30 May 2023 18:00	120	2.5 million	170 thousand	Guam
45	31 May 2023 00:00	111	1.9 million	170 thousand	Guam
46	31 May 2023 06:00	120	13.4 million	170 thousand	Guam
47	31 May 2023 12:00	120	1.9 million	170 thousand	Guam
48	31 May 2023 18:00	111	2.7 million	170 thousand	Guam
49	01 Jun 2023 00:00	102	2.9 million	170 thousand	Guam
50	01 Jun 2023 06:00	93	29.4 million	170 thousand	Guam
51	01 Jun 2023 12:00	93	2.4 million	170 thousand	Guam
52	01 Jun 2023 18:00	93	2 million	170 thousand	Guam
54	02 Jun 2023 06:00	83	46.7 million	170 thousand	Guam
55	02 Jun 2023 12:00	83	67.1 million	170 thousand	Guam
56	02 Jun 2023 18:00	74	72.1 million	170 thousand	Guam
57	03 Jun 2023 00:00	65	50.8 million	170 thousand	Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, Philippines, Japan, China

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)
1	20 May 2023 00:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	2400 people	5.4, 149.1
2	20 May 2023 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	2400 people	5.7, 149.2
3	20 May 2023 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	4400 people	5.7, 149.3
4	20 May 2023 18:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	4400 people	6.1, 149.2
5	21 May 2023 00:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	5500 people	6.8, 149.2
6	21 May 2023 06:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	6000 people	7.6, 148.7
7	21 May 2023 12:00	Category 1	130	<1000 people	2700 people	8, 148.3
8	21 May 2023 18:00	Category 1	139	no people	<1000 people	8.5, 148.1
9	22 May 2023 00:00	Category 2	157	no people	<1000 people	9.1, 147.7
10	22 May 2023 06:00	Category 2	167	no people	<1000 people	9.5, 147
11	22 May 2023 12:00	Category 2	167	no people	<1000 people	10, 146.9
12	22 May 2023 18:00	Category 3	204	no people	no people	10.5, 146.8
13	23 May 2023 00:00	Category 4	213	no people	170000 people	11.2, 146.9
14	23 May 2023 06:00	Category 4	250	no people	220000 people	11.8, 146.5
15	23 May 2023 12:00	Category 4	250	170000 people	220000 people	12.2, 146.1
16	23 May 2023 18:00	Category 4	222	170000 people	220000 people	12.5, 145.7
17	24 May 2023 00:00	Category 4	222	170000 people	220000 people	13, 145.5
18	24 May 2023 06:00	Category 4	222	170000 people	220000 people	13.6, 145.2
19	24 May 2023 12:00	Category 4	222	170000 people	220000 people	13.8, 144.7
20	24 May 2023 18:00	Category 4	241	76000 people	220000 people	14.1, 144.1
21	25 May 2023 00:00	Category 4	250	no people	220000 people	14.3, 143.5
22	25 May 2023 06:00	Category 5	269	no people	220000 people	14.5, 142.8
23	25 May 2023 12:00	Category 5	278	no people	no people	14.7, 141.6
24	25 May 2023 18:00	Category 5	287	no people	no people	14.9, 140.5
25	26 May 2023 00:00	Category 5	296	no people	no people	15.1, 139.3
26	26 May 2023 06:00	Category 5	287	no people	no people	15.3, 138
27	26 May 2023 12:00	Category 5	269	no people	no people	15.7, 136.5
28	26 May 2023 18:00	Category 5	269	no people	no people	16.1, 134.8
29	27 May 2023 00:00	Category 4	250	no people	no people	16.4, 133.3
30	27 May 2023 06:00	Category 4	250	no people	no people	16.6, 132.2
31	27 May 2023 12:00	Category 4	241	no people	no people	16.8, 130.9
32	27 May 2023 18:00	Category 4	222	no people	no people	17, 129.7
33	28 May 2023 00:00	Category 3	204	no people	87000 people	17.3, 128.7
34	28 May 2023 06:00	Category 3	194	no people	no people	17.5, 127.9
35	28 May 2023 12:00	Category 3	194	no people	32000 people	17.9, 127.3
36	28 May 2023 18:00	Category 3	194	no people	210000 people	18.5, 126.9
37	29 May 2023 00:00	Category 3	194	no people	140000 people	19.1, 126.2
38	29 May 2023 06:00	Category 3	194	no people	300000 people	19.4, 125.8
39	29 May 2023 12:00	Category 3	185	no people	110000 people	19.7, 125.6
40	29 May 2023 18:00	Category 2	167	no people	91000 people	20.1, 125.4
41	30 May 2023 00:00	Category 1	148	no people	22000 people	20.4, 125.1
42	30 May 2023 06:00	Category 1	139	no people	72000 people	20.5, 125
43	30 May 2023 12:00	Category 1	130	no people	120000 people	20.7, 125
44	30 May 2023 18:00	Category 1	120	no people	130000 people	21.1, 125
45	31 May 2023 00:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	120000 people	21.5, 125.2
46	31 May 2023 06:00	Category 1	120	no people	5.4 million people	22.3, 125.3
47	31 May 2023 12:00	Category 1	120	no people	1.3 million people	22.7, 125.5
48	31 May 2023 18:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	1.5 million people	23.5, 125.6
49	01 Jun 2023 00:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	1.5 million people	24.2, 125.9
50	01 Jun 2023 06:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	1.5 million people	25, 126.2
51	01 Jun 2023 12:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	1.5 million people	25.8, 127.1
52	01 Jun 2023 18:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	1.5 million people	26.4, 128.3
54	02 Jun 2023 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	2.8 million people	28.3, 131.3
55	02 Jun 2023 12:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	11.4 million people	29.2, 133.1
56	02 Jun 2023 18:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	65 million people	30, 135
57	03 Jun 2023 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	42 million people	30.7, 138.1
57	03 Jun 2023 12:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	34.2, 145.1
57	04 Jun 2023 00:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	38.5, 153.1

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Source: GADM and GHSL

Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
48.5 million people
7800 people
41000 people
160000 people
58000 people

Provinces

Source: GADM and GHSL

Population in Tropical Storm or higher strength
1.7 million people
4.2 million people
1.7 million people
35.9 million people
3.9 million people
1.2 million people
7800 people
41000 people
160000 people
58000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Disclaimer - Copyright
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.