Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for NORA-21 in Mexico from 25 Aug 2021 21:00 UTC to 27 Aug 2021 09:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21

in Mexico

27 Aug 2021 09 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2021-000122-MEX
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	1.4 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	139 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (30 Aug 23:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)
Landfall	between 30 Aug 2021 06:00 - 31 Aug 2021 06:00 in Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	148 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	1.5
Overall	139 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

148 km/h Current Max.

Up to 260000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	25 Aug 2021 21:00	139	620 thousand	No people	Mexico
2	26 Aug 2021 03:00	130	900 thousand	No people	Mexico
3	26 Aug 2021 09:00	130	1.9 million	No people	Mexico
4	26 Aug 2021 15:00	139	3.9 million	No people	Mexico
5	26 Aug 2021 21:00	139	4 million	640 thousand	Mexico
6	27 Aug 2021 03:00	139	2.9 million	510 thousand	Mexico
7	27 Aug 2021 09:00	148	3.1 million	260 thousand	Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	25 Aug 2021 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	11.7, -99.4
2	26 Aug 2021 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	11.9, -100.1
3	26 Aug 2021 09:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	12, -100.6
4	26 Aug 2021 15:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	12.5, -100.8
5	26 Aug 2021 21:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	13.4, -101.7
6	27 Aug 2021 03:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	14.1, -102.6
7	27 Aug 2021 09:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	14.6, -103.5
7	27 Aug 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	2000 people	15.3, -104.4
7	28 Aug 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	490000 people	16.6, -105.4
7	28 Aug 2021 18:00	Category 1	130	no people	1.7 million people	18.5, -106.1
7	29 Aug 2021 06:00	Category 1	139	no people	1.8 million people	20.6, -106.9
7	29 Aug 2021 18:00	Category 1	148	1100 people	1.1 million people	22.1, -107.9
7	30 Aug 2021 06:00	Category 1	148	260000 people	720000 people	23.2, -108.9
7	31 Aug 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	390000 people	24.9, -110.4	Mexico
7	01 Sep 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	27.1, -111.6

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Baja California Sur	Mexico

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
La Paz	Baja California Sur	Mexico	Major city	170000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)
Punta Colorada	PCO	unknown
Punta Pescadero		7
La Paz		26

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Buenavista		Mexico
La Paz		Mexico

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in La Paz, Mexico. This height is estimated for 30 Aug 2021 23:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (34 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 7 of 27 Aug 2021 09:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	30 Aug 2021 23:00	La Paz	Mexico	0.3
	30 Aug 2021 13:00	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.3
	30 Aug 2021 12:00	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 18:00	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 22:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 19:00	La Ventana	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 13:00	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 14:00	La Ribera	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 23:00	Datilito	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2021 00:00	Rosario	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 17:00	La Trinadad	Mexico	0.2
	27 Aug 2021 08:00	Huajapan	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2021 09:00	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 02:00	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 02:00	La Puerta	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 10:00	Los Frailes	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2021 08:00	El Roble	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 08:00	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 14:00	El Castillo	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 12:00	Altata	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2021 08:00	Los Burros	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 08:00	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 23:00	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 21:00	La Palmita	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 21:00	Caimanero	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 22:00	Jarilla	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2021 09:00	Cachimba	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2021 09:00	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2021 09:00	Cachoana	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 10:00	La Boca	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 14:00	Las Palmas	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2021 09:00	Tambobiche	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 16:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2021 09:00	San Cosme	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.