Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for IDAI-19
in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IDAI-19 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Madagascar
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 148 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (11 Mar 04:15 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 148 km/h 0.5 m 919 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 176 km/h 3.1 m 1256 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Mar 2019 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMadagascar21764 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 08 Mar 2019 12:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 09 Mar 2019 00:00 126 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 09 Mar 2019 12:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 148 -
- - - - - Madagascar




Impact estimation for the next 72h

Rainfall

1256 mm

Up to 140 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Mar 2019 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmTanzania, Madagascar, Swaziland, South Africa141041
+
Tanzania23430 
Madagascar60678 
Swaziland14282 
South Africa42651 
50-100 mmDemocratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Comoros, Madagascar, Swaziland, South Africa, Lesotho2783347
+
Democratic Republic of the Congo1920 
Burundi1295 
Tanzania405005 
Malawi321598 
Zambia9804 
Comoros45383 
Madagascar289173 
Swaziland75683 
South Africa1545515 
Lesotho87971 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 08 Mar 2019 12:00 721 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 09 Mar 2019 00:00 678 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 09 Mar 2019 12:00 764 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 10 Mar 2019 00:00 919 140 thousand
- - - - Democratic Republic of the Congo, Burundi, Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia, Comoros, Madagascar, Swaziland, South Africa, Lesotho




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in Tambohorano, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 11 Mar 2019 04:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 10 Mar 2019 00:00 UTC
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
11 Mar 2019 04:15 Tambohorano Madagascar  0.5
11 Mar 2019 04:15 Ambatomilahy Madagascar  0.5
11 Mar 2019 04:15 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.5
11 Mar 2019 04:15 Ankazobe Madagascar  0.5
11 Mar 2019 04:15 Manampea Madagascar  0.5
11 Mar 2019 04:15 Antsafy Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 19:15 Onara Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 19:15 Ankoakala Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 19:15 Ambato Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 19:30 Marovazha Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 20:15 Belavenoka Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 20:15 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 20:15 Marofototra Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 20:15 Voalavo Madagascar  0.4
10 Mar 2019 09:45 Colchester South Africa  0.4
10 Mar 2019 20:15 Manampatra Madagascar  0.3
10 Mar 2019 20:15 Vilamatsa Madagascar  0.3
11 Mar 2019 17:45 Nova Sofala Mozambique  0.3
10 Mar 2019 18:15 Bevatry Madagascar  0.2
10 Mar 2019 18:15 Kamendriky Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 15:15 Machesse Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 15:00 Maconharumo Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 14:45 Rupia Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 19:15 Nhangau Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 19:15 Chofandicho Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 19:15 Panaca Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 19:00 Tama Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 15:00 Bingue Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 18:45 Jonja Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 15:15 Manomba Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 15:15 Ankatrafay Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 15:15 Antandrokomby Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 18:00 Divinhe Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 18:00 Chiloane Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 18:00 Damiao Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 15:30 Belailay Madagascar  0.2
10 Mar 2019 06:30 Ankerefo Madagascar  0.2
10 Mar 2019 06:30 Ambalabao Madagascar  0.2
11 Mar 2019 15:30 Maintirano Madagascar  0.2
10 Mar 2019 15:45 Richmond South Africa  0.2
12 Mar 2019 16:45 Chimuaza Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 16:45 Vila do Chinde Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 16:45 Nhamatamanga Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 18:30 Tsilambana Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 17:00 Mulia Mozambique  0.2
11 Mar 2019 11:45 Mkadini Tanzania  0.2
11 Mar 2019 11:45 Kigongoni Tanzania  0.2
11 Mar 2019 11:45 Bagamoyo Tanzania  0.2
12 Mar 2019 17:30 Amado Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 17:00 Barra Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 15:45 Boesmansriviermond South Africa  0.2
10 Mar 2019 15:45 Kasouga South Africa  0.2
12 Mar 2019 03:30 Ocone Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 03:30 Quelimane do Sal Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 16:15 Tomodo Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 16:15 Mutiba Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 16:15 Caliua Mozambique  0.2
10 Mar 2019 19:00 Andranovoribe Madagascar  0.2
12 Mar 2019 16:30 Raraga Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 16:30 Metapa Mozambique  0.2
12 Mar 2019 17:30 Magromane Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 17:15 Inhangulue Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 17:15 Mendozo Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:30 Kawi Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:30 Konduchi Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:30 Kipara Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:30 Dar es Salaam Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:30 Msasani Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:30 Magogoni Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:30 Mjimwema Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:30 Mboamaji Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:30 Bandarini Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:30 Kutani Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 13:15 Laisse Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 13:15 Dinguiduane Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 13:15 Jo Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 13:15 Bartolomeu Dias Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 18:45 Baly Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 18:00 Soalala Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 11:00 Andemba Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 11:00 Ampanihy Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 11:00 Reharaka Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Sadani Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 12:45 Port Alfred South Africa  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:00 Bumbwini Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:00 Zanzibar Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:00 Kiembi Samaki Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:00 Bet-el-Mali Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:00 Donge Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:00 Kibele Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:30 Mchamba Wima Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Mkwaja Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 12:45 Antohgo Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Mkokotoni Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Fumba Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:15 Andanivato Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:15 Ambatojoby Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:15 Mahabo Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:15 Andramy Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 20:15 Marotaola Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 13:15 Andopitaly Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Mbweni Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Doriya Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:45 Mutadua Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:45 Murrumuana Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Uzi Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Mapopwe Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Chwaka Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Kitogani Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:15 Kijini Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 02:15 Morrua Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 02:15 Carramali Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 02:15 Pebane Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 14:00 Memba Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 14:00 Muanua Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 14:00 Ecota Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 14:00 Formone Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 14:00 Capelelene Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 14:00 Nhiendgi Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 14:00 Nangata Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 14:00 Chepa Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:45 Bwereu Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 14:00 Morondava Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 14:00 Antserananbondro Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 14:00 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 14:00 Kivalo Est Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 13:00 Ambozaka Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 17:15 Moebase Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 02:15 Momade Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 02:15 Metopa Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 02:15 Barroa Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 02:15 Coluvelane Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 07:45 Quinga Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 07:45 Metula Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 13:00 Andramasay Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 13:00 Antanambao Samaka Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 11:45 Banda Kuu Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:45 Ampapamena Madagascar  0.1
12 Mar 2019 03:15 Chululu Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 03:15 Caramaca Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 13:00 Soahazo Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 13:00 Moravano Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Handeru Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Pangani Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Kolekole Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Vumbi Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 13:00 Kilale Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 18:00 Muaco Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Sakura Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 03:15 Quissanga Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 03:15 Pangome Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 03:15 Arimba Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 03:15 Tavari Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 20:00 Magawa Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 20:00 Msindaji Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 20:00 Mchungu Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 20:00 Kiombani Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:30 Ali Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:30 Injaca Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:30 Terrene Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:30 Calajulo Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 13:15 Ambararata Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 13:15 Ankevo Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 13:15 Ankiliabo Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 13:15 Manometimay Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 13:15 Antsamaka Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:30 Andamoty Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:30 Madirobe Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:00 Kilifi Kenya  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:00 Takaungu Kenya  0.1
12 Mar 2019 16:45 Bajone Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 12:45 Beula Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 12:45 Morrumbene Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 12:45 Mabsil Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 12:45 Marivate Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 12:45 Miramar Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 13:15 Appontement Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 13:15 Ankoadavo Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:30 Mosengeri Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:00 Nampuita Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:00 Macalopa Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 19:45 Mwera Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:15 Kovkovu Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:15 Ushongo Mabaoni Tanzania  0.1
12 Mar 2019 19:45 Kilindoni Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 19:45 Nantapa Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 05:45 Namelala Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 05:45 Maaia Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 05:45 Matiquite Mozambique  0.1
10 Mar 2019 05:45 Minhauine Mozambique  0.1
12 Mar 2019 20:00 Kisiju Tanzania  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:45 Watamu Kenya  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:45 Malindi Kenya  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:45 Marikebuni Kenya  0.1
10 Mar 2019 04:45 Gongoni Kenya  0.1
11 Mar 2019 21:45 Ankirijibe Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 21:45 Ankoba Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 21:45 Antseranandaka Madagascar  0.1
11 Mar 2019 21:45 Mite Madagascar  0.1
10 Mar 2019 13:15 Natalia Mozambique  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Mkunguni Tanzania  0.1
11 Mar 2019 12:00 Ukongoroni Tanzania  0.1

Calculation folder at this link