Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for PAWAN-19 in Somalia, Ethiopia from 03 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC to 07 Dec 2019 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PAWAN-19

in Somalia, Ethiopia

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAWAN-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Somalia
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	61 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (07 Dec 03:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Somalia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	61 km/h	0.2 m	115 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	97 km/h	0.3 m	583 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

97 km/h

Up to 6 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Somalia	6,184

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	03 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	03 Dec 2019 06:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	03 Dec 2019 12:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	03 Dec 2019 18:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	04 Dec 2019 00:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	04 Dec 2019 06:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	04 Dec 2019 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	04 Dec 2019 18:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	05 Dec 2019 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	05 Dec 2019 06:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	05 Dec 2019 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	05 Dec 2019 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	06 Dec 2019 00:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	06 Dec 2019 06:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	06 Dec 2019 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	06 Dec 2019 18:00	72	-		-	-	-	-	-	Somalia

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 06 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Somalia	38,818
50-100 mm	Somalia	284,115

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	03 Dec 2019 00:00	246	-		-	-	-	-	-	Other countries
2	03 Dec 2019 06:00	144	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	03 Dec 2019 12:00	135	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	03 Dec 2019 18:00	162	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	04 Dec 2019 00:00	182	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	04 Dec 2019 06:00	139	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	04 Dec 2019 12:00	52	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	04 Dec 2019 18:00	103	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	05 Dec 2019 00:00	168	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	05 Dec 2019 06:00	59	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	05 Dec 2019 12:00	17	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	05 Dec 2019 18:00	36	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	06 Dec 2019 00:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	06 Dec 2019 06:00	52	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	06 Dec 2019 12:00	67	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	06 Dec 2019 18:00	352	40 thousand			-	-	-	-	Somalia

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Baarbacadle, Somalia. This height is estimated for 07 Dec 2019 03:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 06 Dec 2019 18:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	07 Dec 2019 03:00	Baarbacadle	Somalia	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 03:00	Eyl	Somalia	0.2
	07 Dec 2019 03:00	Daga Laha Uein	Somalia	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 05:15	Tadjoura	Djibouti	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 14:45	Harag Jid	Somalia	0.2
	06 Dec 2019 20:30	'Ag	Somalia	0.2
	09 Dec 2019 05:00	Loyado	Djibouti	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 05:00	Takhushih	Somalia	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 05:00	Saylac	Somalia	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 05:30	Djibouti	Djibouti	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 16:45	Rehayto	Eritrea	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 13:00	Ceel Dhahanaan	Somalia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 22:30	Ascira	Somalia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 22:15	Bola Cohuan	Somalia	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 05:30	Obock	Djibouti	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 15:15	Boho	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 15:15	Wareegsimo	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 15:15	Bereeda	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 16:30	Fagal	Djibouti	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 16:30	Khor Angar	Djibouti	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 07:00	Lakabi	Oman	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 07:00	Qaysad	Oman	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 14:45	Murad	Yemen	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 14:45	Muhammad 'Ali Bin Fatha Sumana	Yemen	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 14:45	Al Hajaf	Yemen	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 22:45	Eddi Gellei	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 03:30	Deh-Cabo	Somalia	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 14:45	Mayyun	Yemen	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 14:30	Ceelbacduur	Somalia	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 14:45	Al Bahiyah	Yemen	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 21:30	Beylu	Eritrea	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 01:30	Midi	Yemen	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 01:30	Al Kharamilah	Yemen	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 01:30	Al Madasikah	Yemen	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 22:15	Gaalacoodday	Somalia	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 14:45	Qa'wa	Yemen	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 14:45	Madinat ash Shab	Yemen	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 03:45	Hurdiyo	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 03:45	Xaafuun	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 19:15	Sala Gon	Somalia	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 14:45	'Imran	Yemen	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 14:45	Lughaye	Somalia	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 05:15	Bullaxaar	Somalia	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 05:15	Geeri	Somalia	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 14:45	Anteral	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 02:30	Denouda Digdiglei	Somalia	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 05:15	Hadeytacawl	Somalia	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 05:15	Sabawanaag	Somalia	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 05:15	Biyafoge	Somalia	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 05:15	Sheikh Ali Idris	Somalia	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 14:15	Al Mansuri	Yemen	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 14:15	Kraytar	Yemen	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 05:00	Ari Adeso	Somalia	0.1
	06 Dec 2019 21:15	Bandarbeyla	Somalia	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 14:45	Carmaale	Somalia	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 14:45	Ghadir	Yemen	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 14:45	Berbera	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 16:45	Dhubab	Yemen	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 02:15	Lakba	Oman	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 02:15	Sawqirah	Oman	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 14:00	Hen Daier	Somalia	0.1
	07 Dec 2019 02:45	Cal Marthal	Somalia	0.1
	09 Dec 2019 14:45	Maallah	Yemen	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.