Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for FRANCISCO-20 in Madagascar, Mauritius, from 04 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC to 14 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for FRANCISCO-20

in Madagascar, Mauritius,

10 Feb 2020 00 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FRANCISCO-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	61 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (10 Feb 04:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	61 km/h	0.3 m	106 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	112 km/h	0.5 m	707 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

112 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 10 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	101	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Feb 2020 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Feb 2020 18:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Feb 2020 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	07 Feb 2020 06:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	07 Feb 2020 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	07 Feb 2020 18:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	08 Feb 2020 00:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	08 Feb 2020 06:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	08 Feb 2020 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	08 Feb 2020 18:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	09 Feb 2020 00:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	09 Feb 2020 06:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	09 Feb 2020 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	09 Feb 2020 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	10 Feb 2020 00:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Mozambique	439,139

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	04 Feb 2020 18:00	157	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	05 Feb 2020 00:00	197	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	05 Feb 2020 06:00	192	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	05 Feb 2020 12:00	258	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	05 Feb 2020 18:00	276	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	06 Feb 2020 00:00	274	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	06 Feb 2020 06:00	81	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	06 Feb 2020 12:00	106	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	06 Feb 2020 18:00	58	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	07 Feb 2020 00:00	77	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	07 Feb 2020 06:00	49	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	07 Feb 2020 12:00	31	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	07 Feb 2020 18:00	59	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
14	08 Feb 2020 00:00	127	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
15	08 Feb 2020 06:00	75	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
16	08 Feb 2020 12:00	46	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
17	08 Feb 2020 18:00	63	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
18	09 Feb 2020 00:00	82	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
19	09 Feb 2020 06:00	66	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
20	09 Feb 2020 12:00	57	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
21	09 Feb 2020 18:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
22	10 Feb 2020 00:00	188	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mozambique

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Bevatry, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 10 Feb 2020 04:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 10 Feb 2020 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	10 Feb 2020 04:15	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.3
	10 Feb 2020 04:15	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.3
	10 Feb 2020 05:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Feb 2020 05:00	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Feb 2020 05:00	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Feb 2020 05:00	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Feb 2020 05:00	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Feb 2020 05:15	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Feb 2020 05:00	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Feb 2020 04:15	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Feb 2020 05:00	Andriana	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Feb 2020 05:00	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Feb 2020 05:00	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Feb 2020 05:00	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Feb 2020 05:00	Ambolikapika	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Feb 2020 05:00	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Feb 2020 05:15	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Feb 2020 00:15	Manomba	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Feb 2020 00:15	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Feb 2020 00:15	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Feb 2020 04:45	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Feb 2020 04:45	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Feb 2020 04:45	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.2
	10 Feb 2020 04:15	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 00:15	Belailay	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 00:45	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 00:00	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 00:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 00:30	Soahazo	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 00:30	Moravano	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 00:30	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 00:30	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 00:15	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 00:15	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 00:15	Andranovoribe	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 05:00	Antotoro	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 05:00	Ampohana	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 05:00	Andranira	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 05:00	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 05:00	Mandrorohabe	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 05:00	Mailakapasy	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 02:15	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 02:15	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 02:15	Manompana	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 02:15	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 02:15	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 02:15	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 05:00	Antsahampano	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 05:45	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 05:45	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 05:45	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 05:45	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 00:15	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 00:15	Andemba	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 04:45	Ambaramidada	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 00:00	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.1
	10 Feb 2020 05:00	Ambohimena	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.