Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for LORENA-19
in Mexico
18 Sep 2019 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LORENA-19 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States, Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 137 km/h
Maximum storm surge 4.7 m (18 Sep 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 137 km/h 4.7 m 319 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 130 km/h 4.7 m 421 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States, Mexico366
+
United States365 
Mexico01 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Sep 2019 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 17 Sep 2019 18:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 18 Sep 2019 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 18 Sep 2019 06:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 18 Sep 2019 12:00 137 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

421 mm

Up to 1.1 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmUnited States, Mexico1,118,439
+
United States775,902 
Mexico342,537 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico8,838,367
+
United States4,876,550 
Mexico3,961,817 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Sep 2019 12:00 209 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 17 Sep 2019 18:00 213 -
- - - - - United States
Blue 3 18 Sep 2019 00:00 381 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Blue 4 18 Sep 2019 06:00 222 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 18 Sep 2019 12:00 729 1.1 million
- - - - United States, Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

4.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  4.7m in Rancho Nuevo, Mexico. This height is estimated for 18 Sep 2019 18:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 18 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Rancho Nuevo Mexico  4.7
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Rancho de Piedra Mexico  4.7
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Tecolutla Mexico  4.5
18 Sep 2019 18:00 La Guadalupe Mexico  4.5
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Monte Gordo Mexico  4.5
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Buen Pais Mexico  4.1
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Alvarado Mexico  4.1
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Conejo Mexico  4.1
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Las Barrillas Mexico  3.6
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Coatzacoalcos Mexico  3.6
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Pueblo Viejo Mexico  3.4
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Primero de Mayo Mexico  3.4
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Tampico Alta Mexico  3.4
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Tamiahua Mexico  2.7
18 Sep 2019 18:00 El Naranjal Mexico  2.7
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Nautla Mexico  2.6
18 Sep 2019 18:00 El Laurel Mexico  2.6
18 Sep 2019 18:00 La Pesca Mexico  2.3
18 Sep 2019 18:00 San Cosme Mexico  2.3
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Santa Marta Mexico  2.3
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Tepeguahe Mexico  1.7
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Los Pericos Mexico  1.7
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Ursulo Galvan Mexico  1.5
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Fraccionamiento Nuevo Leon Mexico  1.3
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Laja Mexico  1.3
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Chiltepec Mexico  0.9
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Laguna Heights United States  0.9
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Port Isabel United States  0.9
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Kopernik Shores United States  0.9
18 Sep 2019 18:00 South Padre Island United States  0.9
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Boca Chica United States  0.9
18 Sep 2019 18:00 La Presita Mexico  0.7
18 Sep 2019 18:00 Las Guayabas Mexico  0.5
18 Sep 2019 12:45 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2019 12:30 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2019 13:00 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2019 17:00 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2019 17:00 San Carlos Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2019 17:00 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2019 17:15 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 16:45 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 16:45 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 17:00 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 17:00 Punta Arena Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 17:00 Los Tesos Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 12:00 Sabine United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 12:00 Johnson's Bayou United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 12:00 Constance Beach United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 12:00 Peveto Beach United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 12:00 Holly Beach United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 12:00 High Island United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 12:30 Bolivar Peninsula United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 12:30 Caplen United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 12:30 Gilchrist United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 12:00 Cameron United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 12:45 Flake United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 12:45 Elmgrove United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 12:45 Crystal Beach United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 12:45 Patton United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 12:00 La Choya Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 17:45 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 17:30 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 17:30 Loreto Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 12:30 Port Bolivar United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 12:30 Fort Travis United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 14:15 Oak Grove United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 14:15 Grand Chenier United States  0.1
18 Sep 2019 16:45 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 14:15 Barra de San Jose Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 17:30 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 16:45 Quinones Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 12:00 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 14:45 Tecomate Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 14:45 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.1