Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for LORENA-19
in Mexico
18 Sep 2019 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LORENA-19 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 151 km/h
Maximum storm surge 4.7 m (19 Sep 00:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 151 km/h 4.7 m 203 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 130 km/h 4.7 m 421 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Sep 2019 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico7,396 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Sep 2019 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 17 Sep 2019 18:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 18 Sep 2019 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 18 Sep 2019 06:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 18 Sep 2019 12:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 18 Sep 2019 18:00 151 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

421 mm

Up to 760 thousand can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Sep 2019 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico76,136 
100-250 mmUnited States, Mexico684,448
+
United States213,750 
Mexico470,698 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico6,627,052
+
United States2,132,599 
Mexico4,494,453 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Sep 2019 12:00 209 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 17 Sep 2019 18:00 213 -
- - - - - United States
Blue 3 18 Sep 2019 00:00 381 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Blue 4 18 Sep 2019 06:00 222 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 18 Sep 2019 12:00 319 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Blue 6 18 Sep 2019 18:00 585 760 thousand
- - - United States, Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

4.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  4.7m in Rancho Nuevo, Mexico. This height is estimated for 19 Sep 2019 00:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 18 Sep 2019 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
19 Sep 2019 00:00 Rancho Nuevo Mexico  4.7
19 Sep 2019 00:00 Rancho de Piedra Mexico  4.7
19 Sep 2019 00:00 Tecolutla Mexico  4.5
19 Sep 2019 00:00 La Guadalupe Mexico  4.5
19 Sep 2019 00:00 Monte Gordo Mexico  4.5
19 Sep 2019 00:00 Buen Pais Mexico  4.1
19 Sep 2019 00:00 Alvarado Mexico  4.1
19 Sep 2019 00:00 Conejo Mexico  4.1
19 Sep 2019 00:00 Las Barrillas Mexico  3.6
19 Sep 2019 00:00 Coatzacoalcos Mexico  3.6
19 Sep 2019 00:00 Pueblo Viejo Mexico  3.4
19 Sep 2019 00:00 Primero de Mayo Mexico  3.4
19 Sep 2019 00:00 Tampico Alta Mexico  3.4
19 Sep 2019 00:00 Tamiahua Mexico  2.7
19 Sep 2019 00:00 El Naranjal Mexico  2.7
19 Sep 2019 00:00 Nautla Mexico  2.6
19 Sep 2019 00:00 El Laurel Mexico  2.6
19 Sep 2019 00:00 La Pesca Mexico  2.3
19 Sep 2019 00:00 San Cosme Mexico  2.3
19 Sep 2019 00:00 Santa Marta Mexico  2.3
19 Sep 2019 00:00 Tepeguahe Mexico  1.7
19 Sep 2019 00:00 Los Pericos Mexico  1.7
19 Sep 2019 00:00 Ursulo Galvan Mexico  1.5
19 Sep 2019 00:00 Fraccionamiento Nuevo Leon Mexico  1.3
19 Sep 2019 00:00 Laja Mexico  1.3
19 Sep 2019 00:00 Chiltepec Mexico  0.9
19 Sep 2019 00:00 Laguna Heights United States  0.9
19 Sep 2019 00:00 Port Isabel United States  0.9
19 Sep 2019 00:00 Kopernik Shores United States  0.9
19 Sep 2019 00:00 South Padre Island United States  0.9
19 Sep 2019 00:00 Boca Chica United States  0.9
19 Sep 2019 00:00 La Presita Mexico  0.7
19 Sep 2019 00:00 Las Guayabas Mexico  0.5
19 Sep 2019 00:00 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2019 23:45 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2019 22:15 La Choya Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2019 22:00 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
18 Sep 2019 23:30 Aguaje Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 23:30 Ojo de Liebre Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 23:15 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 00:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 00:00 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 23:15 San Felipe Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 00:00 Datilito Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 00:00 La Paz Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 00:00 Rosario Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 00:00 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 00:00 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 00:00 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 22:45 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 22:45 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 22:45 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 19:30 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 18:30 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 18:30 Loreto Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 22:00 Buenavista Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 22:00 Solo Dios Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 00:00 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 23:45 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 23:45 La Ventana Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 23:45 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 21:00 El Roble Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 21:00 Cachimba Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 23:45 Los Burros Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 21:00 San Francisco del Mar Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 21:00 La Majada Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 18:30 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 18:30 Punta Arena Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 18:30 Los Tesos Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 19:30 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 00:00 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 20:15 Tecomate Mexico  0.1
18 Sep 2019 20:15 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.1