Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for LORENA-19
in Mexico
19 Sep 2019 06 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LORENA-19 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States, Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 166 km/h
Maximum storm surge 4.7 m (19 Sep 12:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 166 km/h 4.7 m 241 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 130 km/h 4.7 m 421 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 19 Sep 2019 06:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States, Mexico157,507
+
United States162 
Mexico157,345 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Sep 2019 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 17 Sep 2019 18:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 18 Sep 2019 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 18 Sep 2019 06:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 18 Sep 2019 12:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 18 Sep 2019 18:00 151 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 19 Sep 2019 00:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 19 Sep 2019 06:00 166 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall

421 mm

Up to 1.6 million can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 19 Sep 2019 06:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico218,201 
100-250 mmUnited States, Mexico1,423,913
+
United States116,476 
Mexico1,307,437 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico2,419,425
+
United States1,699,414 
Mexico720,011 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Sep 2019 12:00 209 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 17 Sep 2019 18:00 213 -
- - - - - United States
Blue 3 18 Sep 2019 00:00 381 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Blue 4 18 Sep 2019 06:00 222 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 18 Sep 2019 12:00 319 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Blue 6 18 Sep 2019 18:00 203 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 7 19 Sep 2019 00:00 246 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Blue 8 19 Sep 2019 06:00 477 1.6 million
- - - United States, Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

4.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  4.7m in Rancho Nuevo, Mexico. This height is estimated for 19 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 19 Sep 2019 06:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
19 Sep 2019 12:00 Rancho Nuevo Mexico  4.7
19 Sep 2019 12:00 Rancho de Piedra Mexico  4.7
19 Sep 2019 12:00 Tecolutla Mexico  4.5
19 Sep 2019 12:00 La Guadalupe Mexico  4.5
19 Sep 2019 12:00 Monte Gordo Mexico  4.5
19 Sep 2019 12:00 Buen Pais Mexico  4.1
19 Sep 2019 12:00 Alvarado Mexico  4.1
19 Sep 2019 12:00 Conejo Mexico  4.1
19 Sep 2019 12:00 Las Barrillas Mexico  3.6
19 Sep 2019 12:00 Coatzacoalcos Mexico  3.6
19 Sep 2019 12:00 Pueblo Viejo Mexico  3.4
19 Sep 2019 12:00 Primero de Mayo Mexico  3.4
19 Sep 2019 12:00 Tampico Alta Mexico  3.4
19 Sep 2019 12:00 Tamiahua Mexico  2.7
19 Sep 2019 12:00 El Naranjal Mexico  2.7
19 Sep 2019 12:00 Nautla Mexico  2.6
19 Sep 2019 12:00 El Laurel Mexico  2.6
19 Sep 2019 12:00 La Pesca Mexico  2.3
19 Sep 2019 12:00 San Cosme Mexico  2.3
19 Sep 2019 12:00 Santa Marta Mexico  2.3
19 Sep 2019 12:00 Tepeguahe Mexico  1.7
19 Sep 2019 12:00 Los Pericos Mexico  1.7
19 Sep 2019 12:00 Ursulo Galvan Mexico  1.5
19 Sep 2019 12:00 Fraccionamiento Nuevo Leon Mexico  1.3
19 Sep 2019 12:00 Laja Mexico  1.3
19 Sep 2019 12:00 Chiltepec Mexico  0.9
19 Sep 2019 12:00 Laguna Heights United States  0.9
19 Sep 2019 12:00 Port Isabel United States  0.9
19 Sep 2019 12:00 Kopernik Shores United States  0.9
19 Sep 2019 12:00 South Padre Island United States  0.9
19 Sep 2019 12:00 Boca Chica United States  0.9
19 Sep 2019 12:00 La Presita Mexico  0.7
19 Sep 2019 12:00 Las Guayabas Mexico  0.5
19 Sep 2019 06:00 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.3
19 Sep 2019 06:00 El Tornillal Mexico  0.3
19 Sep 2019 06:00 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
19 Sep 2019 09:30 Sabine United States  0.2
19 Sep 2019 09:45 Johnson's Bayou United States  0.2
19 Sep 2019 09:45 Constance Beach United States  0.2
19 Sep 2019 09:45 Peveto Beach United States  0.2
19 Sep 2019 09:45 Holly Beach United States  0.2
19 Sep 2019 08:00 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.2
19 Sep 2019 08:00 San Carlos Mexico  0.2
19 Sep 2019 08:00 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.2
19 Sep 2019 07:45 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
19 Sep 2019 09:30 High Island United States  0.2
19 Sep 2019 09:15 Cameron United States  0.2
19 Sep 2019 09:00 Bolivar Peninsula United States  0.2
19 Sep 2019 09:00 Caplen United States  0.2
19 Sep 2019 09:00 Gilchrist United States  0.2
19 Sep 2019 09:00 Crystal Beach United States  0.1
19 Sep 2019 09:00 Patton United States  0.1
19 Sep 2019 08:30 Aguaje Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 08:30 Ojo de Liebre Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 09:00 Flake United States  0.1
19 Sep 2019 09:00 Elmgrove United States  0.1
19 Sep 2019 10:45 Huajapan Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 10:45 El Roble Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 08:30 Oak Grove United States  0.1
19 Sep 2019 10:00 Boqueron Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 10:00 Pasito de la Senora Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 08:15 Grand Chenier United States  0.1
19 Sep 2019 06:45 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 06:45 Boca del Melgoita Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 06:45 Buenaventura Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 11:45 La Choya Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 11:00 Cachimba Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 06:30 Datilito Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 06:30 La Paz Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 06:30 Rosario Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 09:30 Garrapateras Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 09:30 Majada Villalobos Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 08:45 Port Bolivar United States  0.1
19 Sep 2019 08:45 Fort Travis United States  0.1
19 Sep 2019 10:45 Buenavista Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 10:45 Solo Dios Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 11:15 San Francisco del Mar Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 11:15 La Majada Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 06:30 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 06:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 06:00 Loreto Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 08:15 Agua de las Flores Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 11:45 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 06:45 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 11:30 Salina Cruz Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 08:15 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 08:15 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 11:30 Lagarto Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 06:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 09:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 09:30 La Ventana Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 09:30 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 07:15 San Blas Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 07:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 09:00 Galveston United States  0.1
19 Sep 2019 09:00 Texas City United States  0.1
19 Sep 2019 09:00 Anderson Ways United States  0.1
19 Sep 2019 09:00 Virginia Point United States  0.1
19 Sep 2019 10:45 Arista Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 11:15 Pesqueria Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 08:00 Tecomate Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 08:00 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 06:00 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 07:30 Ligui Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 07:30 Tripui Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 11:30 Costa Rica Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 07:00 La Lima Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 07:00 Monteon Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 07:45 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 06:30 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1