Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for LORENA-19
in Mexico
19 Sep 2019 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone LORENA-19 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries United States, Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 101 km/h
Maximum storm surge 4.7 m (19 Sep 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 101 km/h 4.7 m 275 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 130 km/h 4.7 m 421 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

130 km/h

Up to 20 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 19 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States, Mexico22,728
+
United States9,319 
Mexico13,409 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 17 Sep 2019 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 17 Sep 2019 18:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 18 Sep 2019 00:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 18 Sep 2019 06:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 18 Sep 2019 12:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 18 Sep 2019 18:00 151 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 19 Sep 2019 00:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 19 Sep 2019 06:00 166 -
- - - - - Mexico
GREEN 9 19 Sep 2019 12:00 130 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 19 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico12,021 
100-250 mmUnited States, Mexico612,303
+
United States41,654 
Mexico570,649 
50-100 mmUnited States, Mexico1,501,839
+
United States768,348 
Mexico733,491 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 17 Sep 2019 12:00 209 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 17 Sep 2019 18:00 213 -
- - - - - United States
Blue 3 18 Sep 2019 00:00 381 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Blue 4 18 Sep 2019 06:00 222 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 18 Sep 2019 12:00 319 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Blue 6 18 Sep 2019 18:00 203 -
- - - - - Mexico
Blue 7 19 Sep 2019 00:00 246 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Blue 8 19 Sep 2019 06:00 241 390 thousand
- - - - United States, Mexico
Blue 9 19 Sep 2019 12:00 343 620 thousand
- - - United States, Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

4.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  4.7m in Rancho Nuevo, Mexico. This height is estimated for 19 Sep 2019 18:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 19 Sep 2019 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
19 Sep 2019 18:00 Rancho Nuevo Mexico  4.7
19 Sep 2019 18:00 Rancho de Piedra Mexico  4.7
19 Sep 2019 18:00 Tecolutla Mexico  4.5
19 Sep 2019 18:00 La Guadalupe Mexico  4.5
19 Sep 2019 18:00 Monte Gordo Mexico  4.5
19 Sep 2019 18:00 Buen Pais Mexico  4.1
19 Sep 2019 18:00 Alvarado Mexico  4.1
19 Sep 2019 18:00 Conejo Mexico  4.1
19 Sep 2019 18:00 Las Barrillas Mexico  3.6
19 Sep 2019 18:00 Coatzacoalcos Mexico  3.6
19 Sep 2019 18:00 Pueblo Viejo Mexico  3.4
19 Sep 2019 18:00 Primero de Mayo Mexico  3.4
19 Sep 2019 18:00 Tampico Alta Mexico  3.4
19 Sep 2019 18:00 Tamiahua Mexico  2.7
19 Sep 2019 18:00 El Naranjal Mexico  2.7
19 Sep 2019 18:00 Nautla Mexico  2.6
19 Sep 2019 18:00 El Laurel Mexico  2.6
19 Sep 2019 18:00 La Pesca Mexico  2.3
19 Sep 2019 18:00 San Cosme Mexico  2.3
19 Sep 2019 18:00 Santa Marta Mexico  2.3
19 Sep 2019 18:00 Tepeguahe Mexico  1.7
19 Sep 2019 18:00 Los Pericos Mexico  1.7
19 Sep 2019 18:00 Ursulo Galvan Mexico  1.5
19 Sep 2019 18:00 Fraccionamiento Nuevo Leon Mexico  1.3
19 Sep 2019 18:00 Laja Mexico  1.3
19 Sep 2019 18:00 Chiltepec Mexico  0.9
19 Sep 2019 18:00 Laguna Heights United States  0.9
19 Sep 2019 18:00 Port Isabel United States  0.9
19 Sep 2019 18:00 Kopernik Shores United States  0.9
19 Sep 2019 18:00 South Padre Island United States  0.9
19 Sep 2019 18:00 Boca Chica United States  0.9
19 Sep 2019 18:00 La Presita Mexico  0.7
19 Sep 2019 18:00 Las Guayabas Mexico  0.5
19 Sep 2019 12:00 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.2
19 Sep 2019 12:00 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
19 Sep 2019 16:15 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
19 Sep 2019 12:00 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
19 Sep 2019 16:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
19 Sep 2019 16:00 Loreto Mexico  0.2
19 Sep 2019 17:45 Puerto Magdalena Mexico  0.2
19 Sep 2019 17:45 San Carlos Mexico  0.2
19 Sep 2019 17:45 Madero Amarillo Mexico  0.2
19 Sep 2019 17:15 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.2
19 Sep 2019 17:15 Punta Arena Mexico  0.2
19 Sep 2019 17:15 Los Tesos Mexico  0.2
19 Sep 2019 16:00 Tecomate Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 16:00 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 17:45 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 15:30 Tastiota Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 13:15 Garrapateras Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 13:15 Majada Villalobos Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 17:30 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 17:30 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 18:00 La Choya Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 15:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 15:30 La Ventana Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 15:30 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 15:45 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 18:00 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 16:45 Puerto Charley Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 16:15 Rosario Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 18:00 Rancho Cepeda Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 18:00 Rancho San Francisco Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 18:00 Colonia Camalu Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 16:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 16:00 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 16:45 Datilito Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 16:45 La Paz Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 15:30 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 15:45 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 17:45 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 16:45 Quinones Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 16:15 Ligui Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 16:15 Tripui Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 16:30 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 15:45 San Juanico Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 16:15 Borabampo Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 16:45 Cedros Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 16:00 San Jose Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 16:00 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 16:00 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 15:30 Empalme Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 15:45 Mulege Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 16:45 Rancho Datilari Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 15:45 Santa Rosalia Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 17:45 La Florida Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 15:45 Los Dolores Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 17:00 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 17:00 Isla Natividad Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 16:00 San Ignacio Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 15:30 Guasimas Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 17:45 Erendria Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 15:45 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 15:15 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 15:30 Guaymas Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 15:30 San Carlos Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 16:00 Liliba Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 15:15 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 15:15 El Barril Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 18:00 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 18:00 Santo Domingo Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 16:45 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 16:00 Topolobampo Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 13:30 Novillero Mexico  0.1
19 Sep 2019 13:30 Cuantla Mexico  0.1