Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PAWAN-19
in Somalia, Ethiopia
07 Dec 2019 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAWAN-19 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Somalia
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 97 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (04 Dec 01:30 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Somalia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 97 km/h 0.3 m 583 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 97 km/h 0.3 m 583 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

97 km/h

Up to 40 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormSomalia35,191 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 03 Dec 2019 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 03 Dec 2019 06:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 03 Dec 2019 12:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 03 Dec 2019 18:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 04 Dec 2019 00:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 04 Dec 2019 06:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 04 Dec 2019 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 04 Dec 2019 18:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 05 Dec 2019 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 05 Dec 2019 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 05 Dec 2019 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 05 Dec 2019 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 06 Dec 2019 00:00 65 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 06 Dec 2019 06:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 06 Dec 2019 12:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 06 Dec 2019 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 07 Dec 2019 00:00 68 -
- - - - - Somalia
GREEN 18 07 Dec 2019 06:00 58 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 07 Dec 2019 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 07 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmYemen, Somalia109,153
+
Yemen7,463 
Somalia101,690 
50-100 mmYemen, Somalia, Ethiopia999,196
+
Yemen193,687 
Somalia719,523 
Ethiopia85,986 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 03 Dec 2019 00:00 246 -
- - - - - Other countries
Blue 2 03 Dec 2019 06:00 144 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 03 Dec 2019 12:00 135 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 03 Dec 2019 18:00 162 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 04 Dec 2019 00:00 182 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 04 Dec 2019 06:00 139 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 04 Dec 2019 12:00 52 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 04 Dec 2019 18:00 103 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 05 Dec 2019 00:00 168 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 05 Dec 2019 06:00 59 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 05 Dec 2019 12:00 17 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 05 Dec 2019 18:00 36 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 06 Dec 2019 00:00 58 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 06 Dec 2019 06:00 52 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 06 Dec 2019 12:00 67 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 06 Dec 2019 18:00 115 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 07 Dec 2019 00:00 182 20 thousand
- - - - Somalia
Blue 18 07 Dec 2019 06:00 88 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 07 Dec 2019 12:00 401 -
- - - - - Yemen, Somalia, Ethiopia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Baarbacadle, Somalia. This height is estimated for 04 Dec 2019 01:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 07 Dec 2019 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
04 Dec 2019 01:30 Baarbacadle Somalia  0.3
04 Dec 2019 01:30 Eyl Somalia  0.3
04 Dec 2019 01:30 Daga Laha Uein Somalia  0.3
04 Dec 2019 11:45 'Ag Somalia  0.3
04 Dec 2019 13:15 Tadjoura Djibouti  0.3
03 Dec 2019 11:30 Sala Gon Somalia  0.3
03 Dec 2019 11:30 Hurdiyo Somalia  0.3
03 Dec 2019 11:30 Xaafuun Somalia  0.3
04 Dec 2019 14:00 Harag Jid Somalia  0.2
03 Dec 2019 11:15 Deh-Cabo Somalia  0.2
03 Dec 2019 08:30 Bargaal Somalia  0.2
03 Dec 2019 08:30 Aiesloho Somalia  0.2
03 Dec 2019 08:30 Mach Somalia  0.2
03 Dec 2019 07:15 Ceelbacduur Somalia  0.2
03 Dec 2019 07:15 Ceel Dhahanaan Somalia  0.2
03 Dec 2019 07:30 Hen Daier Somalia  0.2
03 Dec 2019 07:30 Hobyo Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 13:30 Djibouti Djibouti  0.2
05 Dec 2019 08:45 Al Qahmah Saudi Arabia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 08:45 Musaykah Saudi Arabia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 13:30 Loyado Djibouti  0.2
03 Dec 2019 15:30 Takhushih Somalia  0.2
03 Dec 2019 15:30 Saylac Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 04:15 Midi Yemen  0.2
05 Dec 2019 04:15 Al Kharamilah Yemen  0.2
03 Dec 2019 17:30 Beylu Eritrea  0.2
05 Dec 2019 04:15 Al Madasikah Yemen  0.2
04 Dec 2019 13:30 Obock Djibouti  0.2
05 Dec 2019 07:15 Khatib Saudi Arabia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 07:15 Haima Saudi Arabia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 07:15 Fugwa Saudi Arabia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 07:15 Bu Tawq Saudi Arabia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 07:15 Sajid Saudi Arabia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 07:15 Humr Saudi Arabia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 07:15 Farasan Saudi Arabia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 16:30 Rehayto Eritrea  0.2
03 Dec 2019 07:00 Gaalacoodday Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 18:30 Kamaran Yemen  0.2
04 Dec 2019 18:30 Sayfaf Yemen  0.2
04 Dec 2019 18:30 Al Jazirah Yemen  0.2
04 Dec 2019 18:30 Qurayyah Yemen  0.2
04 Dec 2019 18:30 Al Khawbah Yemen  0.2
04 Dec 2019 18:30 Ibn Abbas Yemen  0.2
04 Dec 2019 13:45 Murad Yemen  0.2
04 Dec 2019 13:45 Muhammad 'Ali Bin Fatha Sumana Yemen  0.2
04 Dec 2019 13:45 Al Hajaf Yemen  0.2
03 Dec 2019 05:45 Lakabi Oman  0.2
03 Dec 2019 05:45 Qaysad Oman  0.2
05 Dec 2019 14:45 Boho Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 14:45 Wareegsimo Somalia  0.2
05 Dec 2019 14:45 Bereeda Somalia  0.2
04 Dec 2019 14:00 Al Bahiyah Yemen  0.2
06 Dec 2019 05:30 Cadayo Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 07:00 Eddi Gellei Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 07:00 Bola Cohuan Somalia  0.2
06 Dec 2019 11:00 Ascira Somalia  0.1
03 Dec 2019 07:30 Garahadde Somalia  0.1
03 Dec 2019 05:15 Lakba Oman  0.1
03 Dec 2019 05:15 Sawqirah Oman  0.1
05 Dec 2019 14:45 Tooxin Somalia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:00 Hajambar Saudi Arabia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 05:00 'Arid Saudi Arabia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 14:00 Fagal Djibouti  0.1
04 Dec 2019 14:00 Khor Angar Djibouti  0.1
04 Dec 2019 18:00 Sair Saudi Arabia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 16:15 Mayyun Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 06:45 Qawz al Ja'afirah Saudi Arabia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 06:30 Mansiyah Saudi Arabia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 06:30 Jizan Saudi Arabia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 00:15 Cal Marthal Somalia  0.1
06 Dec 2019 00:15 Dauli Somalia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 13:45 Madinat ash Shab Yemen  0.1
04 Dec 2019 13:45 'Imran Yemen  0.1
04 Dec 2019 13:45 Qa'wa Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 04:15 Al Luyhayyah Yemen  0.1
04 Dec 2019 13:15 Hadeytacawl Somalia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 13:15 Sabawanaag Somalia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 13:15 Biyafoge Somalia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 13:15 Sheikh Ali Idris Somalia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 11:00 Al Ghulayfiqah Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 11:00 Buyut al Muhamirah Yemen  0.1
06 Dec 2019 11:15 Darimoh Somalia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 16:30 Dhubab Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 06:45 Al Karbus Saudi Arabia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 11:00 Al Fazah Yemen  0.1
06 Dec 2019 11:00 Bandarbeyla Somalia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 14:00 Bullaxaar Somalia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 14:00 Geeri Somalia  0.1
03 Dec 2019 17:45 Beraisole Eritrea  0.1
05 Dec 2019 11:15 Karmu Eritrea  0.1
03 Dec 2019 17:45 Behld Eritrea  0.1
05 Dec 2019 12:00 Al 'Urj Yemen  0.1
03 Dec 2019 17:45 Alela Eritrea  0.1
03 Dec 2019 17:45 Aseb Eritrea  0.1
05 Dec 2019 02:00 Al Madaya Saudi Arabia  0.1
03 Dec 2019 02:45 Culli Somalia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 14:00 Lughaye Somalia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 11:15 Idi Eritrea  0.1
05 Dec 2019 11:15 Halaba Eritrea  0.1
05 Dec 2019 16:30 Quddam Yemen  0.1
03 Dec 2019 07:15 Denouda Digdiglei Somalia  0.1
03 Dec 2019 18:00 Qashlu Yemen  0.1
03 Dec 2019 18:00 Qadub Yemen  0.1
03 Dec 2019 18:00 Hadiboh Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 12:00 Jabanah Yemen  0.1
09 Dec 2019 14:15 Al Mansuri Yemen  0.1
09 Dec 2019 14:15 Kraytar Yemen  0.1
05 Dec 2019 11:30 Al Hudaydah Yemen  0.1
04 Dec 2019 13:45 Ghadir Yemen  0.1
04 Dec 2019 13:45 Maallah Yemen  0.1
04 Dec 2019 13:45 Carmaale Somalia  0.1
09 Dec 2019 05:00 Ari Adeso Somalia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 13:15 Berbera Somalia  0.1
04 Dec 2019 13:45 Khormaksar Yemen  0.1
09 Dec 2019 14:30 'Adan Yemen  0.1
03 Dec 2019 17:00 Al Khawkhah Yemen  0.1
03 Dec 2019 17:00 Maushij Yemen  0.1
03 Dec 2019 17:00 Jirdan Yemen  0.1
07 Dec 2019 15:45 Bandar Jedid Somalia  0.1
05 Dec 2019 11:00 Al Butays Yemen  0.1
03 Dec 2019 17:00 Yakhtul Yemen  0.1