Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for OLAF-21
in Mexico
08 Sep 2021 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone OLAF-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 83 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (08 Sep 21:15 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 83 km/h 0.3 m 168 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 169 km/h 0.6 m 647 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

169 km/h

Up to 210 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico207,411 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 07 Sep 2021 18:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 08 Sep 2021 00:00 61 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 08 Sep 2021 06:00 76 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 08 Sep 2021 12:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 08 Sep 2021 18:00 133 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMexico02 
100-250 mmMexico274,414 
50-100 mmMexico90,986 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 07 Sep 2021 18:00 250 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 08 Sep 2021 00:00 191 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 08 Sep 2021 06:00 173 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 08 Sep 2021 12:00 290 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 08 Sep 2021 18:00 368 270 thousand
- - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in El Golfo de Santa Clara, Mexico. This height is estimated for 08 Sep 2021 21:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 08 Sep 2021 18:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
08 Sep 2021 21:15 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.3
08 Sep 2021 21:15 El Tornillal Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 22:00 San Felipe Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 20:30 La Choya Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 20:30 Puerto Penasco Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 19:30 San Blas Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 19:30 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 21:45 Aguaje Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 23:45 Novillero Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 23:45 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
08 Sep 2021 18:15 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 23:45 Los Burros Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 23:45 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 18:15 Tecomate Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 00:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 21:15 Puertecitos Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 19:45 Rancho Bahia Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 20:45 Puerto Cortes Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 20:45 El Guatamota Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 00:00 Agua del Coyote Mexico  0.1
09 Sep 2021 00:00 Las Tinajas Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 23:45 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 18:00 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 22:00 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 21:00 Santa Marie Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 19:30 Playa Oceano Pacifico Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 19:45 La Florida Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 19:45 Adolfo Lopez Mateos Mexico  0.1
08 Sep 2021 23:45 Jarilla Mexico  0.1