Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for PAMELA-21
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAMELA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 54 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (09 Oct 19:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 54 km/h 0.3 m 140 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 76 km/h 0.4 m 386 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

76 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Oct 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormMexico09 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 09 Oct 2021 12:00 76 -
- - - - - Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h




Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 09 Oct 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
50-100 mmMexico5,908 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 09 Oct 2021 12:00 381 -
- - - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in Puerto Venustiano Carranza, Mexico. This height is estimated for 09 Oct 2021 19:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 09 Oct 2021 12:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
09 Oct 2021 19:45 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.3
09 Oct 2021 23:00 Aguaje Mexico  0.2
09 Oct 2021 19:00 Desembarcadero de Miller Mexico  0.1
09 Oct 2021 23:30 Ojo de Liebre Mexico  0.1