Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for PAMELA-21
in Mexico
10 Oct 2021 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone PAMELA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries United States, Mexico
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 65 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (10 Oct 00:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 65 km/h 0.2 m 215 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 76 km/h 0.4 m 386 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

76 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Oct 2021 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormUnited States, Mexico535
+
United States280 
Mexico255 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 09 Oct 2021 12:00 54 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 10 Oct 2021 00:00 86 -
- - - - - United States, Mexico
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 10 Oct 2021 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
50-100 mmMexico85,280 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 09 Oct 2021 12:00 140 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 10 Oct 2021 00:00 369 -
- - - - - Mexico




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in Aguaje, Mexico. This height is estimated for 10 Oct 2021 00:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 10 Oct 2021 00:00 UTC
    
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
10 Oct 2021 00:00 Aguaje Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2021 06:00 Corpus Christi United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 06:00 North Beach United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 06:00 Gardendale United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 06:00 Doyle United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 06:00 Orange Grove United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 06:00 Portland United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 06:00 Gregory United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 06:00 Caruthers Cove Colonia United States  0.2
10 Oct 2021 10:30 Ojo de Liebre Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2021 05:30 San Bruno Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2021 05:30 Loreto Mexico  0.2
10 Oct 2021 05:00 La Gloria Mexico  0.1
10 Oct 2021 05:00 Chaparral Mexico  0.1
10 Oct 2021 07:15 Tecomate Mexico  0.1
10 Oct 2021 07:15 Cabo Tepoca Mexico  0.1
10 Oct 2021 00:30 Puerto Venustiano Carranza Mexico  0.1
10 Oct 2021 04:45 Estes United States  0.1
10 Oct 2021 04:45 Rockport United States  0.1
10 Oct 2021 04:45 Shell Ridge United States  0.1
10 Oct 2021 04:45 Copano Village United States  0.1
10 Oct 2021 04:45 Fulton United States  0.1
10 Oct 2021 04:45 Holiday Beach United States  0.1
10 Oct 2021 04:45 Lamar United States  0.1
10 Oct 2021 06:15 Ingleside United States  0.1
10 Oct 2021 06:15 Kenney Lane West Colonia United States  0.1
10 Oct 2021 06:15 Port Ingleside United States  0.1
10 Oct 2021 06:15 Indian Trails Lane Colonia United States  0.1
10 Oct 2021 06:15 Country Acres Colonia United States  0.1
10 Oct 2021 06:15 Country Estates Colonia United States  0.1
10 Oct 2021 06:15 Aransas Pass United States  0.1
10 Oct 2021 07:45 Carancahua United States  0.1
10 Oct 2021 07:45 El Campo Club Community United States  0.1
10 Oct 2021 07:45 Camp Hulen United States  0.1
10 Oct 2021 07:45 Palacios United States  0.1
10 Oct 2021 07:45 Collegeport United States  0.1
10 Oct 2021 07:45 Simpsonville United States  0.1
10 Oct 2021 07:45 Citrus Grove United States  0.1
10 Oct 2021 06:15 Bahia Kino Mexico  0.1
10 Oct 2021 04:30 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.1
10 Oct 2021 04:15 Datilito Mexico  0.1
10 Oct 2021 04:15 La Paz Mexico  0.1
10 Oct 2021 04:15 Rosario Mexico  0.1
10 Oct 2021 02:45 El Golfo de Santa Clara Mexico  0.1
10 Oct 2021 07:30 Indianola United States  0.1
10 Oct 2021 07:30 Olivia United States  0.1
10 Oct 2021 07:30 Weedhaven United States  0.1
10 Oct 2021 07:30 Port Alto United States  0.1
10 Oct 2021 07:30 Port O'Connor United States  0.1
10 Oct 2021 06:30 Liliba Mexico  0.1
10 Oct 2021 07:00 Peary Place United States  0.1
10 Oct 2021 07:00 Flour Bluff United States  0.1
10 Oct 2021 07:00 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.1
10 Oct 2021 03:45 Novillero Mexico  0.1
10 Oct 2021 03:45 Cuantla Mexico  0.1
10 Oct 2021 02:45 Rancho Magueyes Mexico  0.1
10 Oct 2021 02:45 El Mezquite Mexico  0.1
10 Oct 2021 02:45 El Mezquital Mexico  0.1
10 Oct 2021 03:45 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
10 Oct 2021 04:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
10 Oct 2021 06:30 San Rafael Mexico  0.1
10 Oct 2021 06:45 Mustang Beach United States  0.1
10 Oct 2021 06:45 Port Aransas United States  0.1
10 Oct 2021 03:15 San Blas Mexico  0.1
10 Oct 2021 03:15 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
10 Oct 2021 06:15 Guasimas Mexico  0.1