Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for KOMPASU-21
in Viet Nam, Laos, China, Philippines
12 Oct 2021 12 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KOMPASU-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Paracel Islands
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 97 km/h
Maximum storm surge 2.5 m (13 Oct 07:45 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Vietnam)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 97 km/h 2.5 m 136 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 119 km/h 2.4 m 688 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

119 km/h

Up to 7.9 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Oct 2021 12:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormChina, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Paracel Islands7,910,510
+
China7,709,937 
Taiwan190,799 
Hong Kong2,479 
Vietnam6,838 
Paracel Islands455 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 10 Oct 2021 06:00 97 -
- - - - - Taiwan
GREEN 2 10 Oct 2021 12:00 104 -
- - - - - Taiwan, Philippines
GREEN 3 10 Oct 2021 18:00 119 -
- - - - - China, Taiwan, Japan, Philippines
GREEN 4 11 Oct 2021 00:00 101 -
- - - - - Taiwan, China, Japan, Philippines
GREEN 5 11 Oct 2021 06:00 97 -
- - - - - China, Taiwan, Japan, Philippines
GREEN 6 11 Oct 2021 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Taiwan, China, Japan, Philippines
GREEN 7 11 Oct 2021 18:00 101 -
- - - - - China, Taiwan, Philippines
GREEN 8 12 Oct 2021 00:00 108 -
- - - - - China, Taiwan, Philippines
GREEN 9 12 Oct 2021 06:00 97 -
- - - - - Taiwan, China, Philippines
GREEN 10 12 Oct 2021 12:00 115 -
- - - - - China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Paracel Islands
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 12 Oct 2021 12:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmChina, Taiwan, Myanmar4,472,109
+
China4,171,735 
Taiwan206,276 
Myanmar94,097 
100-250 mmChina, Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines, Laos, Paracel Islands, Myanmar, Thailand, India, Cambodia30,308,942
+
China14,301,752 
Taiwan1,283,801 
Vietnam5,584,711 
Philippines5,682,932 
Myanmar1,330,082 
Laos30,666 
Thailand1,814,866 
Paracel Islands336 
India233,135 
Cambodia46,656 
50-100 mmChina, Taiwan, Japan, Vietnam, Hong Kong, Macao, Myanmar, Laos, Philippines, Thailand, Paracel Islands, India, Cambodia, Micronesia98,309,871
+
China20,899,304 
Taiwan2,926,921 
Japan1,670 
Vietnam17,941,951 
Hong Kong194,442 
Macao216,802 
Philippines29,437,357 
Myanmar4,037,054 
Laos1,499,821 
Thailand17,499,845 
Paracel Islands119 
India135,467 
Cambodia3,519,110 
Micronesia01 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 10 Oct 2021 06:00 92 -
- - - - - Vietnam, China
Blue 2 10 Oct 2021 12:00 134 -
- - - - - Vietnam
Blue 3 10 Oct 2021 18:00 156 270 thousand
- - - - China, Vietnam, Philippines, Laos
Blue 4 11 Oct 2021 00:00 138 430 thousand
- - - - Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines, Laos
Blue 5 11 Oct 2021 06:00 198 1.6 million
- - - - Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines
Blue 6 11 Oct 2021 12:00 262 1.7 million
- - - Taiwan, Philippines, Thailand, Laos
Blue 7 11 Oct 2021 18:00 157 1.2 million
- - - - Taiwan, Philippines
Blue 8 12 Oct 2021 00:00 256 360 thousand
- - - Philippines, Thailand, Cambodia, Myanmar
Blue 9 12 Oct 2021 06:00 151 80 thousand
- - - - China
Blue 10 12 Oct 2021 12:00 528 34.8 million
- - - China, Taiwan, Japan, Vietnam, Hong Kong, Macao, Philippines, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Paracel Islands, India, Cambodia, Micronesia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

2.5 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 12 Oct 2021 12:00 UTC