Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for KOMPASU-21
in Viet Nam, Laos, China, Philippines
11 Oct 2021 18 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KOMPASU-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Philippines, Vietnam, Paracel Islands
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 101 km/h
Maximum storm surge 2.4 m (13 Oct 09:00 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Vietnam)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 101 km/h 2.4 m 157 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 119 km/h 2.4 m 688 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

119 km/h

Up to 14.1 million can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Oct 2021 18:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
Tropical StormChina, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Philippines, Vietnam, Paracel Islands14,132,047
+
China7,229,739 
Taiwan4,570,341 
Hong Kong79,420 
Philippines2,251,077 
Vietnam1,154 
Paracel Islands314 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 10 Oct 2021 06:00 97 -
- - - - - Taiwan
GREEN 2 10 Oct 2021 12:00 104 -
- - - - - Taiwan, Philippines
GREEN 3 10 Oct 2021 18:00 119 -
- - - - - China, Taiwan, Japan, Philippines
GREEN 4 11 Oct 2021 00:00 101 -
- - - - - Taiwan, China, Japan, Philippines
GREEN 5 11 Oct 2021 06:00 97 -
- - - - - China, Taiwan, Japan, Philippines
GREEN 6 11 Oct 2021 12:00 101 -
- - - - - Taiwan, China, Japan, Philippines
GREEN 7 11 Oct 2021 18:00 108 -
- - - - - China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Philippines, Vietnam, Paracel Islands
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
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Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 11 Oct 2021 18:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmChina, Taiwan, Thailand, Cambodia, Myanmar7,896,020
+
China6,519,495 
Taiwan294,416 
Myanmar46,702 
Thailand1,033,568 
Cambodia1,838 
100-250 mmChina, Taiwan, Japan, Hong Kong, Philippines, Vietnam, Paracel Islands, Thailand, Cambodia, Myanmar, India30,239,539
+
China16,984,130 
Japan1,670 
Taiwan775,368 
Vietnam4,817,114 
Hong Kong1,914 
Philippines2,627,314 
Myanmar1,281,577 
Thailand3,321,390 
Paracel Islands84 
India7,452 
Cambodia421,521 
50-100 mmChina, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, Hong Kong, Macao, Myanmar, Philippines, Laos, Thailand, Paracel Islands, India, Cambodia134,302,069
+
China11,650,008 
Japan8,402 
Taiwan9,989,378 
Vietnam36,786,539 
Hong Kong7,016,721 
Macao579,652 
Philippines33,609,335 
Myanmar2,246,082 
Laos468,347 
Thailand28,821,582 
Paracel Islands251 
India317,483 
Cambodia2,808,282 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 10 Oct 2021 06:00 92 -
- - - - - Vietnam, China
Blue 2 10 Oct 2021 12:00 134 -
- - - - - Vietnam
Blue 3 10 Oct 2021 18:00 156 270 thousand
- - - - China, Vietnam, Philippines, Laos
Blue 4 11 Oct 2021 00:00 138 430 thousand
- - - - Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines, Laos
Blue 5 11 Oct 2021 06:00 198 1.6 million
- - - - Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines
Blue 6 11 Oct 2021 12:00 262 1.7 million
- - - Taiwan, Philippines, Thailand, Laos
Blue 7 11 Oct 2021 18:00 507 38.1 million
- - - China, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, Hong Kong, Macao, Philippines, Myanmar, Laos, Thailand, Paracel Islands, India, Cambodia




Impact estimation for the next 72h
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StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

2.4 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 11 Oct 2021 18:00 UTC