Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for KELVIN-18 in Australia from 16 Feb 2018 06:00 UTC to 18 Feb 2018 00:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KELVIN-18

in Australia

18 Feb 2018 00 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KELVIN-18 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries	Australia
Exposed population	Few people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	129 km/h
Maximum storm surge	1.5 m (18 Feb 03:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	129 km/h	1.5 m	n.a.	0.5
HWRF Overall	142 km/h	1.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

142 km/h

Up to Few people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Feb 2018 00:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
CAT. 1	Australia	169
Tropical Storm	Australia	18,354

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	16 Feb 2018 06:00	67	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 Feb 2018 12:00	74	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	16 Feb 2018 18:00	98	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 Feb 2018 00:00	91	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	17 Feb 2018 06:00	88	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	17 Feb 2018 12:00	97	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	17 Feb 2018 18:00	90	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	18 Feb 2018 00:00	129	Few people			-	-	-	-	Australia

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (greater than 50mm) based on the bulletin of 18 Feb 2018 00:00 UTC

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000
1	16 Feb 2018 06:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 Feb 2018 12:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	16 Feb 2018 18:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 Feb 2018 00:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	17 Feb 2018 06:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	17 Feb 2018 12:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	17 Feb 2018 18:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	18 Feb 2018 00:00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

1.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 1.5m in Thangoo, Australia. This height is estimated for 18 Feb 2018 03:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 18 Feb 2018 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	18 Feb 2018 03:15	Thangoo	Australia	1.5
	18 Feb 2018 03:15	Broome	Australia	1.4
	18 Feb 2018 03:30	Waterbank	Australia	1.1
	18 Feb 2018 03:15	Kennedys Cottage	Australia	1.0
	18 Feb 2018 07:30	Pardoo	Australia	0.5
	18 Feb 2018 03:15	Derby	Australia	0.4
	18 Feb 2018 07:45	Condon	Australia	0.4
	18 Feb 2018 09:45	Port Hedland	Australia	0.3
	18 Feb 2018 05:45	Pender	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2018 11:45	Dampier	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2018 11:45	Karratha	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2018 00:30	Wonnerup	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2018 00:30	Ludlow	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2018 00:30	Dalyellup	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2018 00:30	Bunbury	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2018 00:30	Binningup	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2018 00:30	Myalup	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2018 00:45	Picton	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2018 00:45	Eaton	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2018 00:45	Australind	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2018 07:00	Kollan I	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2018 00:15	Vasse	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2018 00:15	Broadwater	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2018 00:15	Busselton	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2018 08:30	Esperance	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2018 08:30	Doombup	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2018 06:15	Denison	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2018 06:15	Port Denison	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2018 06:15	Dongara	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2018 00:30	Burragenup	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2018 06:30	Drummond Cove	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2018 06:30	Popes Landing	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2018 06:30	Waggrakine	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2018 00:30	Gunyulgup	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2018 00:30	Yallingup	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2018 00:30	Dunsborough	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2018 00:30	Quindalup	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2018 07:15	Kalbarri	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2018 02:00	Hopetoun	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2018 02:00	Jerdacuttup	Australia	0.2
	19 Feb 2018 13:30	Fannie Bay	Australia	0.2
	19 Feb 2018 13:30	Parap	Australia	0.2
	19 Feb 2018 13:30	Darwin	Australia	0.2
	19 Feb 2018 13:30	Nightcliff	Australia	0.2
	19 Feb 2018 13:30	Ludmilla	Australia	0.2
	19 Feb 2018 13:30	Bagot	Australia	0.2
	19 Feb 2018 13:30	Leanyer	Australia	0.2
	19 Feb 2018 13:30	Berrimah	Australia	0.2
	19 Feb 2018 14:00	Larrakeyah	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2018 19:15	Segintong	Indonesia	0.2
	19 Feb 2018 13:45	The Palms	Australia	0.2
	19 Feb 2018 13:45	Knuckeys Lagoon	Australia	0.2
	18 Feb 2018 18:00	Setiroek	Indonesia	0.2
	18 Feb 2018 06:30	Geraldton	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 06:30	Horrocks	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 15:30	Matarape	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 15:30	Baja	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 11:30	Wickham	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 11:30	Point Samson	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 11:30	Cossack	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 19:00	Pagatan	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 13:30	Bula	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 13:30	Bolifar	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 16:15	Surutanga	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 16:15	Bua	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 16:15	Boesak	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 16:15	Lura	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 16:15	Bassiang	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 07:00	Gregory	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 07:00	Lynton	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 00:00	Kronkup	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 00:00	Bornholm	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 00:00	Torbay	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 00:00	Elleker	Australia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 03:00	Langadai	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 03:00	Sembelimbingan	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 03:00	Berangas	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 03:00	Soengaibali	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 01:00	Minarup	Australia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 01:15	Kilbawar	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 01:15	Waru	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 01:15	Kufar	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 01:15	Falcon	Australia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 08:15	Ritabel	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 08:15	Namralan	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 08:15	Watidal	Indonesia	0.1
	20 Feb 2018 14:00	Watmuri	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 16:00	Kalipang	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 16:00	Lemanbang	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 16:00	Tambakbaja	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 06:45	Greenough	Australia	0.1
	20 Feb 2018 22:45	Manglusi	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 01:00	Safety Bay	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 01:00	Mandurah	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 01:00	Rockingham	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 01:00	Warnbro	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 01:00	Peelhurst	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 01:00	Singleton	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 01:00	Karnup	Australia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 12:00	Waeplou	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 12:00	Djiku Merasa	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 12:00	Namlea	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 16:00	Pagetan	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 16:00	Tambakkarangan	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 16:00	Tabanio	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 16:00	Bawahalajung	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 02:15	Asaoede	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 02:15	Loki	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 02:15	Kaibobo	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 02:15	Piru	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 03:15	Waha	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 03:15	Tano	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 03:15	Lagole	Indonesia	0.1
	19 Feb 2018 03:15	Bante	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 18:00	Tinobu	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 18:00	Molore	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 18:00	Taponggaja	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 10:45	Batunong	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 10:45	Loholoho	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 10:45	Lanipa	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 10:45	Pakoee	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 10:45	Pakue	Indonesia	0.1
	18 Feb 2018 10:45	Lelewao	Indonesia	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.