Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for NORA-21 in Mexico from 25 Aug 2021 21:00 UTC to 28 Aug 2021 09:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21

in Mexico

28 Aug 2021 09 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2021-000122-MEX
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	1.4 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	139 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (30 Aug 18:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)
Landfall	between 01 Sep 2021 06:00 - 02 Sep 2021 06:00 in Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	130 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	1.5
Overall	139 km/h	0.3 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

TOP

Wind

130 km/h Current Max.

Up to 180000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	25 Aug 2021 21:00	139	620 thousand	No people	Mexico
2	26 Aug 2021 03:00	130	900 thousand	No people	Mexico
3	26 Aug 2021 09:00	130	1.9 million	No people	Mexico
4	26 Aug 2021 15:00	139	3.9 million	No people	Mexico
5	26 Aug 2021 21:00	139	4 million	640 thousand	Mexico
6	27 Aug 2021 03:00	139	2.9 million	510 thousand	Mexico
7	27 Aug 2021 09:00	148	3.1 million	260 thousand	Mexico
8	27 Aug 2021 15:00	139	7.6 million	8 thousand	Mexico
9	27 Aug 2021 21:00	148	4.7 million	40 thousand	Mexico
10	28 Aug 2021 03:00	130	9.2 million	160 thousand	Mexico
11	28 Aug 2021 09:00	130	6 million	180 thousand	Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	25 Aug 2021 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	11.7, -99.4
2	26 Aug 2021 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	11.9, -100.1
3	26 Aug 2021 09:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	12, -100.6
4	26 Aug 2021 15:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	12.5, -100.8
5	26 Aug 2021 21:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	13.4, -101.7
6	27 Aug 2021 03:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	14.1, -102.6
7	27 Aug 2021 09:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	14.6, -103.5
8	27 Aug 2021 15:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	610000 people	15.4, -104.3
9	27 Aug 2021 21:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	1.2 million people	15.5, -104.9
10	28 Aug 2021 03:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	2.2 million people	16.3, -105.1
11	28 Aug 2021 09:00	Category 1	120	no people	1.9 million people	17.1, -105.2
11	28 Aug 2021 18:00	Category 1	139	8800 people	2.2 million people	18.8, -105.5
11	29 Aug 2021 06:00	Category 1	139	6400 people	1.9 million people	20.8, -106.1
11	29 Aug 2021 18:00	Category 1	130	no people	680000 people	22.4, -107
11	30 Aug 2021 06:00	Category 1	130	no people	290000 people	23.3, -107.8
11	30 Aug 2021 18:00	Category 1	130	no people	270000 people	24.1, -108.6
11	31 Aug 2021 06:00	Category 1	130	no people	350000 people	24.9, -109.4
11	01 Sep 2021 06:00	Category 1	130	160000 people	1.2 million people	26.4, -110.6
11	02 Sep 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	28.7, -111	Mexico

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

Download:

Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Jalisco	Mexico
Nayarit	Mexico
Sonora	Mexico

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Guaymas	Sonora	Mexico	City	100000 people
Empalme	Sonora	Mexico	City	38000 people

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
La Gloria		34				0
Isla Maria Madre		5				0
General Jose Maria Yanez International	GYM	27	Civ.	Paved	Yes	7700

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Ipala		Mexico
Guaymas	MXGYM	Mexico
Empalme		Mexico

TOP

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

TOP

StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in El Castillo, Mexico. This height is estimated for 30 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (49 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 11 of 28 Aug 2021 09:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	30 Aug 2021 18:00	El Castillo	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2021 03:00	Corrales	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 03:00	Aquiles Serdan	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 13:00	Cuantla	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 19:00	Altata	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 03:00	Ipala	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 17:00	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 20:00	Cuitzmala	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 15:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 23:00	Chola	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2021 07:00	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 23:00	Chamela	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 05:00	Punta Mita	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 19:00	Jarilla	Mexico	0.2
	31 Aug 2021 22:00	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.2
	01 Sep 2021 09:00	San Jose	Mexico	0.2
	27 Aug 2021 08:00	Huajapan	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 18:00	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 16:00	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 20:00	Caimanero	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 17:00	La Boca	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2021 08:00	El Roble	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 18:00	Estrecho	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 20:00	La Manzanilla	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 22:00	La Palmita	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 19:00	La Puerta	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 11:00	San Blas	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 18:00	El Ciruelo	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 18:00	Cuyutlan	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 18:00	Barra de Navidad	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 06:00	Pizota	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 05:00	San Francisco	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 18:00	Novillero	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 19:00	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2021 16:00	Cachoana	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 18:00	Santiago	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 04:00	Cruz de Juanacaxtle	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 13:00	Perihuete	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 09:00	Dimas	Mexico	0.1
	27 Aug 2021 09:00	Cachimba	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 18:00	El Real	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 18:00	Chupadero	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 18:00	Manzanillo	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 18:00	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 01:00	Mazatlan	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 23:00	Barron	Mexico	0.1
	31 Aug 2021 10:00	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2021 09:00	Atanacio	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 04:00	Marmol	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.