Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico
28 Aug 2021 09 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS NOAA
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Glide number: TC-2021-000122-MEX
    Exposed countries Mexico
    Exposed population 1.4 million in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 139 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (30 Aug 18:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)
    Landfall between
    01 Sep 2021 06:00 - 02 Sep 2021 06:00
    in Mexico

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 130 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 1.5
    Overall 139 km/h 0.3 m n.a. 1.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      130 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 180000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 25 Aug 2021 21:00 139 620 thousand No people Mexico
        Green 2 26 Aug 2021 03:00 130 900 thousand No people Mexico
        Green 3 26 Aug 2021 09:00 130 1.9 million No people Mexico
        Green 4 26 Aug 2021 15:00 139 3.9 million No people Mexico
        Orange 5 26 Aug 2021 21:00 139 4 million 640 thousand Mexico
        Orange 6 27 Aug 2021 03:00 139 2.9 million 510 thousand Mexico
        Orange 7 27 Aug 2021 09:00 148 3.1 million 260 thousand Mexico
        Green 8 27 Aug 2021 15:00 139 7.6 million 8 thousand Mexico
        Green 9 27 Aug 2021 21:00 148 4.7 million 40 thousand Mexico
        Orange 10 28 Aug 2021 03:00 130 9.2 million 160 thousand Mexico
        Orange 11 28 Aug 2021 09:00 130 6 million 180 thousand Mexico

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 25 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 11.7, -99.4
          GREEN
          		 2 26 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 11.9, -100.1
          GREEN
          		 3 26 Aug 2021 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12, -100.6
          GREEN
          		 4 26 Aug 2021 15:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 12.5, -100.8
          GREEN
          		 5 26 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.4, -101.7
          GREEN
          		 6 27 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 14.1, -102.6
          GREEN
          		 7 27 Aug 2021 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.6, -103.5
          GREEN
          		 8 27 Aug 2021 15:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 610000 people 15.4, -104.3
          GREEN
          		 9 27 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 1.2 million people 15.5, -104.9
          GREEN
          		 10 28 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 2.2 million people 16.3, -105.1
          GREEN
          		 11 28 Aug 2021 09:00 Category 1 120 no people 1.9 million people 17.1, -105.2
          GREEN
          		 11 28 Aug 2021 18:00 Category 1 139 8800 people 2.2 million people 18.8, -105.5
          GREEN
          		 11 29 Aug 2021 06:00 Category 1 139 6400 people 1.9 million people 20.8, -106.1
          GREEN
          		 11 29 Aug 2021 18:00 Category 1 130 no people 680000 people 22.4, -107
          GREEN
          		 11 30 Aug 2021 06:00 Category 1 130 no people 290000 people 23.3, -107.8
          GREEN
          		 11 30 Aug 2021 18:00 Category 1 130 no people 270000 people 24.1, -108.6
          GREEN
          		 11 31 Aug 2021 06:00 Category 1 130 no people 350000 people 24.9, -109.4
          ORANGE
          		 11 01 Sep 2021 06:00 Category 1 130 160000 people 1.2 million people 26.4, -110.6
          GREEN
          		 11 02 Sep 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 28.7, -111 Mexico
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Mexico

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Jalisco Mexico
          Nayarit Mexico
          Sonora Mexico

          Populated places

          Name Region Province Country City class Population
          Guaymas Sonora Mexico City 100000 people
          Empalme Sonora Mexico City 38000 people

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          La Gloria 34 0
          Isla Maria Madre 5 0
          General Jose Maria Yanez International GYM 27 Civ. Paved Yes 7700

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          Ipala Mexico
          Guaymas MXGYM Mexico
          Empalme Mexico
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          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.3 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.3m in El Castillo, Mexico. This height is estimated for 30 Aug 2021 18:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (49 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 11 of 28 Aug 2021 09:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          30 Aug 2021 18:00 El Castillo Mexico  0.3
          29 Aug 2021 03:00 Corrales Mexico  0.2
          29 Aug 2021 03:00 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.2
          29 Aug 2021 13:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
          30 Aug 2021 19:00 Altata Mexico  0.2
          29 Aug 2021 03:00 Ipala Mexico  0.2
          30 Aug 2021 17:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.2
          28 Aug 2021 20:00 Cuitzmala Mexico  0.2
          29 Aug 2021 15:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
          28 Aug 2021 23:00 Chola Mexico  0.2
          01 Sep 2021 07:00 Las Bocas Mexico  0.2
          28 Aug 2021 23:00 Chamela Mexico  0.2
          29 Aug 2021 05:00 Punta Mita Mexico  0.2
          29 Aug 2021 19:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.2
          31 Aug 2021 22:00 Topolobampo Mexico  0.2
          01 Sep 2021 09:00 San Jose Mexico  0.2
          27 Aug 2021 08:00 Huajapan Mexico  0.2
          29 Aug 2021 18:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.1
          29 Aug 2021 16:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.1
          29 Aug 2021 20:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.1
          30 Aug 2021 17:00 La Boca Mexico  0.1
          27 Aug 2021 08:00 El Roble Mexico  0.1
          28 Aug 2021 18:00 Estrecho Mexico  0.1
          28 Aug 2021 20:00 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.1
          29 Aug 2021 22:00 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
          29 Aug 2021 19:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.1
          29 Aug 2021 11:00 San Blas Mexico  0.1
          28 Aug 2021 18:00 El Ciruelo Mexico  0.1
          28 Aug 2021 18:00 Cuyutlan Mexico  0.1
          28 Aug 2021 18:00 Barra de Navidad Mexico  0.1
          29 Aug 2021 06:00 Pizota Mexico  0.1
          29 Aug 2021 05:00 San Francisco Mexico  0.1
          29 Aug 2021 18:00 Novillero Mexico  0.1
          29 Aug 2021 19:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.1
          31 Aug 2021 16:00 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
          28 Aug 2021 18:00 Santiago Mexico  0.1
          29 Aug 2021 04:00 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.1
          30 Aug 2021 13:00 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
          30 Aug 2021 09:00 Dimas Mexico  0.1
          27 Aug 2021 09:00 Cachimba Mexico  0.1
          28 Aug 2021 18:00 El Real Mexico  0.1
          28 Aug 2021 18:00 Chupadero Mexico  0.1
          28 Aug 2021 18:00 Manzanillo Mexico  0.1
          29 Aug 2021 18:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.1
          30 Aug 2021 01:00 Mazatlan Mexico  0.1
          29 Aug 2021 23:00 Barron Mexico  0.1
          31 Aug 2021 10:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
          01 Sep 2021 09:00 Atanacio Mexico  0.1
          30 Aug 2021 04:00 Marmol Mexico  0.1