Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico
28 Aug 2021 15 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
  • GDACS NOAA
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

    Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

    Meteorological source GDACS
    Glide number: TC-2021-000122-MEX
    Exposed countries Mexico
    Exposed population 1.4 million in Category 1 or higher
    Maximum wind speed 139 km/h
    Maximum storm surge 0.4 m (01 Sep 15:00 UTC)
    Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)
    Landfall between
    01 Sep 2021 12:00 - 02 Sep 2021 12:00
    in Mexico

    GDACS Score

    GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
    For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
      Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
    Current 148 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 0.5
    Overall 139 km/h 0.4 m n.a. 0.5

    Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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    Wind

      148 km/h Current Max.

      Up to 21000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

      Impact Timeline

        Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
        Tropical Storm or higher        		 Population in
        Cat 1. or higher        		 Countries
        Green 1 25 Aug 2021 21:00 139 620 thousand No people Mexico
        Green 2 26 Aug 2021 03:00 130 900 thousand No people Mexico
        Green 3 26 Aug 2021 09:00 130 1.9 million No people Mexico
        Green 4 26 Aug 2021 15:00 139 3.9 million No people Mexico
        Orange 5 26 Aug 2021 21:00 139 4 million 640 thousand Mexico
        Orange 6 27 Aug 2021 03:00 139 2.9 million 510 thousand Mexico
        Orange 7 27 Aug 2021 09:00 148 3.1 million 260 thousand Mexico
        Green 8 27 Aug 2021 15:00 139 7.6 million 8 thousand Mexico
        Green 9 27 Aug 2021 21:00 148 4.7 million 40 thousand Mexico
        Orange 10 28 Aug 2021 03:00 130 9.2 million 160 thousand Mexico
        Orange 11 28 Aug 2021 09:00 130 6 million 180 thousand Mexico
        Green 12 28 Aug 2021 15:00 148 8.3 million 20 thousand Mexico

        Bulletin Timeline

          Alert N° Date (UTC) Category
          (SSHS)           		Max winds
          (km/h)           		Population in
          Cat.1 or higher           		Population in
          Tropical Storm
          or higher           		Location (lat, lon) Countries
          GREEN
          		 1 25 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 11.7, -99.4
          GREEN
          		 2 26 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 11.9, -100.1
          GREEN
          		 3 26 Aug 2021 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12, -100.6
          GREEN
          		 4 26 Aug 2021 15:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 12.5, -100.8
          GREEN
          		 5 26 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.4, -101.7
          GREEN
          		 6 27 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 14.1, -102.6
          GREEN
          		 7 27 Aug 2021 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.6, -103.5
          GREEN
          		 8 27 Aug 2021 15:00 Tropical storm 83 no people 610000 people 15.4, -104.3
          GREEN
          		 9 27 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 1.2 million people 15.5, -104.9
          GREEN
          		 10 28 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical storm 102 no people 2.2 million people 16.3, -105.1
          GREEN
          		 11 28 Aug 2021 09:00 Category 1 120 no people 1.9 million people 17.1, -105.2
          GREEN
          		 12 28 Aug 2021 15:00 Category 1 130 14000 people 2.8 million people 18.4, -105.4
          GREEN
          		 12 29 Aug 2021 00:00 Category 1 139 14000 people 2.5 million people 20.1, -105.8
          GREEN
          		 12 29 Aug 2021 12:00 Category 1 148 <1000 people 1.2 million people 22, -106.5
          GREEN
          		 12 30 Aug 2021 00:00 Category 1 148 no people 1.8 million people 23.1, -107.3
          GREEN
          		 12 30 Aug 2021 12:00 Category 1 139 no people 1.5 million people 23.8, -108
          GREEN
          		 12 31 Aug 2021 00:00 Category 1 130 no people 770000 people 24.5, -108.9
          GREEN
          		 12 31 Aug 2021 12:00 Category 1 120 no people 870000 people 25.2, -109.6
          GREEN
          		 12 01 Sep 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 111 no people 1.7 million people 26.9, -110.5
          GREEN
          		 12 02 Sep 2021 12:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 29.3, -111 Mexico
          Actual track of the current bulletin
          The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
          Download:



          Exposed population - AoIs

          Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

          Countries

          Country
          Mexico

          Provinces

          Region Province Country
          Jalisco Mexico
          Nayarit Mexico

          Critical infrastructure

          Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

          Airports

          Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
          La Gloria 34 0
          Isla Maria Madre 5 0

          Ports

          Name LOCODE Country
          El Tabaco Mexico
          Ipala Mexico
          TOP

          Rainfall

          Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

          ...

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          StormSurge

          0.4 m

          The maximum Storm surge height is  0.4m in San Jose, Mexico. This height is estimated for 01 Sep 2021 15:00 UTC .

          The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

          Locations affected by Storm surge (57 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 12 of 28 Aug 2021 15:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

          Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
          01 Sep 2021 15:00 San Jose Mexico  0.4
          30 Aug 2021 18:00 El Castillo Mexico  0.3
          01 Sep 2021 15:00 Atanacio Mexico  0.3
          29 Aug 2021 01:00 Ipala Mexico  0.3
          30 Aug 2021 20:00 Altata Mexico  0.3
          29 Aug 2021 01:00 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.3
          29 Aug 2021 13:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.3
          01 Sep 2021 15:00 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.3
          29 Aug 2021 02:00 Corrales Mexico  0.3
          30 Aug 2021 15:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.3
          01 Sep 2021 08:00 Las Bocas Mexico  0.2
          29 Aug 2021 18:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.2
          01 Sep 2021 15:00 Liliba Mexico  0.2
          29 Aug 2021 15:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
          29 Aug 2021 13:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
          29 Aug 2021 19:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.2
          28 Aug 2021 22:00 Chola Mexico  0.2
          29 Aug 2021 03:00 Punta Mita Mexico  0.2
          29 Aug 2021 18:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.2
          28 Aug 2021 19:00 Cuitzmala Mexico  0.2
          29 Aug 2021 09:00 San Blas Mexico  0.2
          29 Aug 2021 18:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.2
          30 Aug 2021 08:00 Dimas Mexico  0.2
          30 Aug 2021 17:00 La Boca Mexico  0.2
          01 Sep 2021 03:00 Topolobampo Mexico  0.2
          01 Sep 2021 14:00 Borabampo Mexico  0.2
          28 Aug 2021 21:00 Chamela Mexico  0.2
          29 Aug 2021 14:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.2
          30 Aug 2021 00:00 Mazatlan Mexico  0.2
          30 Aug 2021 03:00 Marmol Mexico  0.2
          29 Aug 2021 04:00 Pizota Mexico  0.2
          29 Aug 2021 03:00 San Francisco Mexico  0.2
          30 Aug 2021 10:00 Perihuete Mexico  0.2
          31 Aug 2021 19:00 Cachoana Mexico  0.2
          29 Aug 2021 18:00 Novillero Mexico  0.1
          01 Sep 2021 00:00 El Aquajito Mexico  0.1
          01 Sep 2021 08:00 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1
          28 Aug 2021 19:00 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.1
          29 Aug 2021 03:00 Puerto Vallarta Mexico  0.1
          29 Aug 2021 03:00 Monteon Mexico  0.1
          29 Aug 2021 09:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
          31 Aug 2021 05:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
          26 Aug 2021 23:00 Cachimba Mexico  0.1
          28 Aug 2021 17:00 Manzanillo Mexico  0.1
          28 Aug 2021 17:00 Estrecho Mexico  0.1
          28 Aug 2021 17:00 Santiago Mexico  0.1
          29 Aug 2021 19:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.1
          30 Aug 2021 03:00 Florida Mexico  0.1
          28 Aug 2021 16:00 El Ciruelo Mexico  0.1
          28 Aug 2021 16:00 Cuyutlan Mexico  0.1
          28 Aug 2021 15:00 El Real Mexico  0.1
          28 Aug 2021 15:00 Chupadero Mexico  0.1
          28 Aug 2021 19:00 Barra de Navidad Mexico  0.1
          29 Aug 2021 03:00 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.1
          29 Aug 2021 21:00 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
          29 Aug 2021 22:00 Barron Mexico  0.1
          31 Aug 2021 05:00 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1