Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for NORA-21 in Mexico from 25 Aug 2021 21:00 UTC to 26 Aug 2021 21:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21

in Mexico

26 Aug 2021 21 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2021-000122-MEX
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	1.4 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	139 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (30 Aug 13:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)
Landfall	between 29 Aug 2021 18:00 - 30 Aug 2021 18:00 in Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	139 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	1.5
Overall	139 km/h	0.5 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

139 km/h Current Max.

Up to 640000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	25 Aug 2021 21:00	139	620 thousand	No people	Mexico
2	26 Aug 2021 03:00	130	900 thousand	No people	Mexico
3	26 Aug 2021 09:00	130	1.9 million	No people	Mexico
4	26 Aug 2021 15:00	139	3.9 million	No people	Mexico
5	26 Aug 2021 21:00	139	4 million	640 thousand	Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	25 Aug 2021 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	11.7, -99.4
2	26 Aug 2021 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	11.9, -100.1
3	26 Aug 2021 09:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	12, -100.6
4	26 Aug 2021 15:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	12.5, -100.8
5	26 Aug 2021 21:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	13.4, -101.7
5	27 Aug 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	11000 people	14.1, -102.7
5	27 Aug 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	330000 people	15.3, -103.8
5	28 Aug 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	1.1 million people	16.8, -104.7
5	28 Aug 2021 18:00	Category 1	120	no people	2.3 million people	18.6, -105.6
5	29 Aug 2021 06:00	Category 1	130	no people	2.3 million people	20.3, -106.7
5	29 Aug 2021 18:00	Category 1	139	320000 people	1.5 million people	21.6, -107.9
5	30 Aug 2021 18:00	Category 1	139	380000 people	800000 people	23.6, -110	Mexico
5	31 Aug 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	no people	25.2, -111.7	Mexico

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Baja California Sur	Mexico

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
La Paz	Baja California Sur	Mexico	Major city	170000 people
Villa Constitución	Baja California Sur	Mexico	City	-

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Cabo San Lucas		139				0
Los Cabos International	SJD	109	Civ.	Paved	Yes	9800
Punta Colorada	PCO	unknown				0
Punta Pescadero		7				0
Leon	LAP	21	Civ.	Paved	Yes	8200
La Paz		26				0
Arroyo Capo		20				0
Villa Constitucion	VIB	43				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
San Hose Del Cabo		Mexico
San Lucas		Mexico
Buenavista		Mexico
La Paz		Mexico
San Juan de la Costa	MXSJC	Mexico

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in El Cardoncito, Mexico. This height is estimated for 30 Aug 2021 13:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (71 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 5 of 26 Aug 2021 21:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	30 Aug 2021 13:00	El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.5
	30 Aug 2021 12:00	La Fortuna	Mexico	0.5
	30 Aug 2021 21:00	Datilito	Mexico	0.4
	30 Aug 2021 21:00	La Paz	Mexico	0.4
	30 Aug 2021 15:00	La Ribera	Mexico	0.3
	30 Aug 2021 19:00	Todos Santos	Mexico	0.3
	30 Aug 2021 15:00	Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.3
	30 Aug 2021 21:00	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.3
	30 Aug 2021 13:00	San Jose del Cabo	Mexico	0.3
	30 Aug 2021 19:00	El Castillo	Mexico	0.3
	30 Aug 2021 19:00	La Ventana	Mexico	0.3
	30 Aug 2021 14:00	Punta Arena	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 19:00	Altata	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 18:00	El Pescadero	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 19:00	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 19:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 18:00	Jarilla	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 13:00	Los Frailes	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 18:00	La Trinadad	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 14:00	Cuantla	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 19:00	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 18:00	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 18:00	Caimanero	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 18:00	La Puerta	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 19:00	Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 21:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 21:00	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 19:00	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 13:00	El Tule	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 17:00	Las Palmas	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 18:00	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 21:00	Rosario	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 16:00	La Tinaja	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 18:00	Dimas	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 19:00	La Boca	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 15:00	San Blas	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 19:00	Novillero	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 14:00	Los Tesos	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 13:00	San Lucas	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 21:00	Los Inocentes	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 18:00	Marmol	Mexico	0.2
	30 Aug 2021 18:00	Mazatlan	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 19:00	Perihuete	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 15:00	Pozo de Cota	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 21:00	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 20:00	Cachoana	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 19:00	Barron	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 21:00	Los Burros	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 20:00	Cuitzmala	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 23:00	Chola	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 21:00	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 21:00	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 18:00	La Manzanilla	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 18:00	Barra de Navidad	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 18:00	Estrecho	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 21:00	Chamela	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 04:00	Aquiles Serdan	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 02:00	Ipala	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 19:00	La Palmita	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 21:00	Loreto	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 21:00	Ligui	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 21:00	Tripui	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 21:00	San Cosme	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 21:00	Tambobiche	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 21:00	Agua Fresca	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 21:00	Cunano	Mexico	0.1
	26 Aug 2021 22:00	Cachimba	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 05:00	Corrales	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 15:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 20:00	San Bruno	Mexico	0.1
	30 Aug 2021 18:00	Florida	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.