Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Glide number: TC-2021-000122-MEX
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population 1.4 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 139 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.5 m (30 Aug 13:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)
Landfall between
29 Aug 2021 18:00 - 30 Aug 2021 18:00

in Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
Current 139 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 1.5
Overall 139 km/h 0.5 m n.a. 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

Wind

139 km/h Current Max.

Up to 640000 people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Green 1 25 Aug 2021 21:00 139 620 thousand No people Mexico
Green 2 26 Aug 2021 03:00 130 900 thousand No people Mexico
Green 3 26 Aug 2021 09:00 130 1.9 million No people Mexico
Green 4 26 Aug 2021 15:00 139 3.9 million No people Mexico
Orange 5 26 Aug 2021 21:00 139 4 million 640 thousand Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category
(SSHS)
Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
or higher
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 25 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 11.7, -99.4
GREEN
2 26 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 11.9, -100.1
GREEN
3 26 Aug 2021 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12, -100.6
GREEN
4 26 Aug 2021 15:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 12.5, -100.8
GREEN
5 26 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.4, -101.7
GREEN
5 27 Aug 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 74 11000 people no people 14.1, -102.7
GREEN
5 27 Aug 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 93 330000 people no people 15.3, -103.8
GREEN
5 28 Aug 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 102 1.1 million people no people 16.8, -104.7
GREEN
5 28 Aug 2021 18:00 Category 1 120 2.3 million people no people 18.6, -105.6
GREEN
5 29 Aug 2021 06:00 Category 1 130 2.3 million people no people 20.3, -106.7
ORANGE
5 29 Aug 2021 18:00 Category 1 139 1.5 million people 320000 people 21.6, -107.9
ORANGE
5 30 Aug 2021 18:00 Category 1 139 800000 people 380000 people 23.6, -110 Mexico
GREEN
5 31 Aug 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 102 no people no people 25.2, -111.7 Mexico
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Baja California Sur Mexico 350000 people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
La Paz Baja California Sur Mexico Major city 170000 people
Villa Constitución Baja California Sur Mexico City -

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Cabo San Lucas 139 0
Los Cabos International SJD 109 Civ. Paved Yes 9800
Punta Colorada PCO unknown 0
Punta Pescadero 7 0
Leon LAP 21 Civ. Paved Yes 8200
La Paz 26 0
Arroyo Capo 20 0
Villa Constitucion VIB 43 0

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
San Hose Del Cabo Mexico
San Lucas Mexico
Buenavista Mexico
La Paz Mexico
San Juan de la Costa MXSJC Mexico

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.5m in El Cardoncito, Mexico. This height is estimated for 30 Aug 2021 13:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (71 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 5 of 26 Aug 2021 21:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
30 Aug 2021 13:00 El Cardoncito Mexico  0.5
30 Aug 2021 12:00 La Fortuna Mexico  0.5
30 Aug 2021 21:00 Datilito Mexico  0.4
30 Aug 2021 21:00 La Paz Mexico  0.4
30 Aug 2021 15:00 La Ribera Mexico  0.3
30 Aug 2021 19:00 Todos Santos Mexico  0.3
30 Aug 2021 15:00 Punta Colorada Mexico  0.3
30 Aug 2021 21:00 San Juan de la Costa Mexico  0.3
30 Aug 2021 13:00 San Jose del Cabo Mexico  0.3
30 Aug 2021 19:00 El Castillo Mexico  0.3
30 Aug 2021 19:00 La Ventana Mexico  0.3
30 Aug 2021 14:00 Punta Arena Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 19:00 Altata Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 18:00 El Pescadero Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 19:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 19:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 18:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 13:00 Los Frailes Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 18:00 La Trinadad Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 14:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 19:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 18:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 18:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 18:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 19:00 Ensenada de los Muertos Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 21:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 21:00 Topolobampo Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 19:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 13:00 El Tule Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 17:00 Las Palmas Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 18:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 21:00 Rosario Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 16:00 La Tinaja Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 18:00 Dimas Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 19:00 La Boca Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 15:00 San Blas Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 19:00 Novillero Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 14:00 Los Tesos Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 13:00 San Lucas Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 21:00 Los Inocentes Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 18:00 Marmol Mexico  0.2
30 Aug 2021 18:00 Mazatlan Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 19:00 Perihuete Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 15:00 Pozo de Cota Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 21:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 20:00 Cachoana Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 19:00 Barron Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 21:00 Los Burros Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 20:00 Cuitzmala Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 23:00 Chola Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 21:00 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 21:00 Santa Marta Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:00 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:00 Barra de Navidad Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:00 Estrecho Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 21:00 Chamela Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 04:00 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 02:00 Ipala Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 19:00 La Palmita Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 21:00 Loreto Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 21:00 Ligui Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 21:00 Tripui Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 21:00 San Cosme Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 21:00 Tambobiche Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 21:00 Agua Fresca Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 21:00 Cunano Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 22:00 Cachimba Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 05:00 Corrales Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 15:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 20:00 San Bruno Mexico  0.1
30 Aug 2021 18:00 Florida Mexico  0.1