Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21 in Mexico from 25 Aug 2021 21:00 UTC to 30 Aug 2021 09:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21

in Mexico

30 Aug 2021 09 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2021-000122-MEX
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	1.4 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	139 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.7 m (29 Aug 07:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)
Landfall	between 29 Aug 2021 03:00 - 29 Aug 2021 09:00 in Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	46 km/h	0.2 m	n.a.	0.5
Overall	139 km/h	0.7 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

46 km/h Current Max.

Up to 11.7 million people in Tropical Storm strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	25 Aug 2021 21:00	139	620 thousand	No people	Mexico
2	26 Aug 2021 03:00	130	900 thousand	No people	Mexico
3	26 Aug 2021 09:00	130	1.9 million	No people	Mexico
4	26 Aug 2021 15:00	139	3.9 million	No people	Mexico
5	26 Aug 2021 21:00	139	4 million	640 thousand	Mexico
6	27 Aug 2021 03:00	139	2.9 million	510 thousand	Mexico
7	27 Aug 2021 09:00	148	3.1 million	260 thousand	Mexico
8	27 Aug 2021 15:00	139	7.6 million	8 thousand	Mexico
9	27 Aug 2021 21:00	148	4.7 million	40 thousand	Mexico
10	28 Aug 2021 03:00	130	9.2 million	160 thousand	Mexico
11	28 Aug 2021 09:00	130	6 million	180 thousand	Mexico
12	28 Aug 2021 15:00	148	8.3 million	20 thousand	Mexico
13	28 Aug 2021 21:00	139	14.2 million	600 thousand	Mexico
14	29 Aug 2021 03:00	120	14.4 million	1.1 million	Mexico
15	29 Aug 2021 09:00	120	14.5 million	1.4 million	Mexico
16	29 Aug 2021 15:00	120	14.6 million	1.3 million	Mexico
17	29 Aug 2021 21:00	93	13.5 million	1.4 million	Mexico
18	30 Aug 2021 03:00	65	12.5 million	1.4 million	Mexico
19	30 Aug 2021 09:00	46	11.7 million	1.4 million	Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	25 Aug 2021 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	11.7, -99.4
2	26 Aug 2021 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	11.9, -100.1
3	26 Aug 2021 09:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	12, -100.6
4	26 Aug 2021 15:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	12.5, -100.8
5	26 Aug 2021 21:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	13.4, -101.7
6	27 Aug 2021 03:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	14.1, -102.6
7	27 Aug 2021 09:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	14.6, -103.5
8	27 Aug 2021 15:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	610000 people	15.4, -104.3
9	27 Aug 2021 21:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	1.2 million people	15.5, -104.9
10	28 Aug 2021 03:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	2.2 million people	16.3, -105.1
11	28 Aug 2021 09:00	Category 1	120	no people	1.9 million people	17.1, -105.2
12	28 Aug 2021 15:00	Category 1	130	14000 people	2.8 million people	18.4, -105.4
13	28 Aug 2021 21:00	Category 1	139	470000 people	8.7 million people	19.7, -105.4	Mexico
14	29 Aug 2021 03:00	Category 1	120	73000 people	2.4 million people	21.3, -105.5
15	29 Aug 2021 09:00	Category 1	120	640000 people	2.8 million people	22.5, -105.9	Mexico
16	29 Aug 2021 15:00	Category 1	120	590000 people	2 million people	23.3, -106.4	Mexico
17	29 Aug 2021 21:00	Tropical storm	93	no people	1.7 million people	24.3, -107.5	Mexico
18	30 Aug 2021 03:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	1.3 million people	24.8, -107.9	Mexico
19	30 Aug 2021 09:00	Tropical depression	46	no people	no people	25.3, -108.1	Mexico

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Source: GADM and GHSL

Provinces

Source: GADM and GHSL

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Disclaimer - Copyright
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.