Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for NORA-21 in Mexico from 25 Aug 2021 21:00 UTC to 29 Aug 2021 09:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve awareness, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21

in Mexico

29 Aug 2021 09 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GDACS
Glide number:	TC-2021-000122-MEX
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	1.4 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	139 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.7 m (29 Aug 07:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)
Landfall	between 31 Aug 2021 06:00 - 31 Aug 2021 18:00 in Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Level), 1.5 (ORANGE Level), 2.5 (RED Level)
For more info on GDACS core click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
Current	120 km/h	0.6 m	n.a.	1.5
Overall	139 km/h	0.7 m	n.a.	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

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Wind

120 km/h Current Max.

Up to 1.4 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Population in Cat 1. or higher	Countries
1	25 Aug 2021 21:00	139	620 thousand	No people	Mexico
2	26 Aug 2021 03:00	130	900 thousand	No people	Mexico
3	26 Aug 2021 09:00	130	1.9 million	No people	Mexico
4	26 Aug 2021 15:00	139	3.9 million	No people	Mexico
5	26 Aug 2021 21:00	139	4 million	640 thousand	Mexico
6	27 Aug 2021 03:00	139	2.9 million	510 thousand	Mexico
7	27 Aug 2021 09:00	148	3.1 million	260 thousand	Mexico
8	27 Aug 2021 15:00	139	7.6 million	8 thousand	Mexico
9	27 Aug 2021 21:00	148	4.7 million	40 thousand	Mexico
10	28 Aug 2021 03:00	130	9.2 million	160 thousand	Mexico
11	28 Aug 2021 09:00	130	6 million	180 thousand	Mexico
12	28 Aug 2021 15:00	148	8.3 million	20 thousand	Mexico
13	28 Aug 2021 21:00	139	14.2 million	600 thousand	Mexico
14	29 Aug 2021 03:00	120	14.4 million	1.1 million	Mexico
15	29 Aug 2021 09:00	120	14.5 million	1.4 million	Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

N°	Date (UTC)	Category (SSHS)	Max winds (km/h)	Population in Cat.1 or higher	Population in Tropical Storm or higher	Location (lat, lon)	Countries
1	25 Aug 2021 21:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	11.7, -99.4
2	26 Aug 2021 03:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	11.9, -100.1
3	26 Aug 2021 09:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	12, -100.6
4	26 Aug 2021 15:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	12.5, -100.8
5	26 Aug 2021 21:00	Tropical storm	65	no people	no people	13.4, -101.7
6	27 Aug 2021 03:00	Tropical storm	74	no people	no people	14.1, -102.6
7	27 Aug 2021 09:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	no people	14.6, -103.5
8	27 Aug 2021 15:00	Tropical storm	83	no people	610000 people	15.4, -104.3
9	27 Aug 2021 21:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	1.2 million people	15.5, -104.9
10	28 Aug 2021 03:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	2.2 million people	16.3, -105.1
11	28 Aug 2021 09:00	Category 1	120	no people	1.9 million people	17.1, -105.2
12	28 Aug 2021 15:00	Category 1	130	14000 people	2.8 million people	18.4, -105.4
13	28 Aug 2021 21:00	Category 1	139	470000 people	8.7 million people	19.7, -105.4	Mexico
14	29 Aug 2021 03:00	Category 1	120	73000 people	2.4 million people	21.3, -105.5
15	29 Aug 2021 09:00	Category 1	120	640000 people	2.8 million people	22.5, -105.9	Mexico
15	29 Aug 2021 18:00	Category 1	120	190000 people	2 million people	23.6, -106.8	Mexico
15	30 Aug 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	1.8 million people	24.2, -107.4	Mexico
15	30 Aug 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	2.2 million people	24.7, -108.1	Mexico
15	31 Aug 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	111	no people	1.2 million people	25.2, -108.8
15	31 Aug 2021 18:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	1.4 million people	26, -109.5	Mexico
15	01 Sep 2021 06:00	Tropical storm	102	no people	1.8 million people	27, -110.2	Mexico
15	02 Sep 2021 06:00	Tropical depression	56	no people	no people	29.5, -111	Mexico

Actual track of the current bulletin

The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.

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Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province	Country
Sinaloa	Mexico
Nayarit	Mexico
Jalisco	Mexico

Populated places

Name	Region Province	Country	City class	Population
Escuinapa	Sinaloa	Mexico	City	28000 people
Villa Unión	Sinaloa	Mexico	City	13000 people
Mazatlan	Sinaloa	Mexico	Major city	330000 people
Punta Mita	Nayarit	Mexico	City	-
Puerto Vallarta	Jalisco	Mexico	City	190000 people
El Dorado	Sinaloa	Mexico	City	-

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name	IATA Code	Elevation (m)	Usage	Runway type	IFR	Runway Length (ft)
Teacapan		6				0
Rancho los Cabras		3				0
General Rafael Buelna International	MZT	10	Civ.	Paved	Yes	8800
San Blas		3				0
El Llano		12				0
Lic Gustavo Diaz Ordaz International	PVR	6	Civ.	Paved	Yes	10100
La Gloria		34				0

Ports

Name	LOCODE	Country
Mazatlan	MXMZT	Mexico
San Blas	MXSBS	Mexico
Puerto Vallarta	MXPVR	Mexico
Ipala		Mexico
El Tabaco		Mexico
Chamela		Mexico

Dams

Reservoir	Dam Name	River	Year
	Cajon de Peda	Tomatlan	1976

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Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

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StormSurge

0.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.7m in Santa Cruz, Mexico. This height is estimated for 29 Aug 2021 07:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (59 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 15 of 29 Aug 2021 09:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Level	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	29 Aug 2021 07:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.7
	29 Aug 2021 04:00	San Blas	Mexico	0.7
	29 Aug 2021 08:00	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.7
	29 Aug 2021 07:00	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.7
	31 Aug 2021 12:00	Cachoana	Mexico	0.6
	29 Aug 2021 06:00	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.6
	30 Aug 2021 14:00	Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.6
	30 Aug 2021 13:00	El Castillo	Mexico	0.6
	29 Aug 2021 12:00	Caimanero	Mexico	0.5
	29 Aug 2021 12:00	Jarilla	Mexico	0.5
	29 Aug 2021 17:00	Marmol	Mexico	0.5
	29 Aug 2021 15:00	Mazatlan	Mexico	0.5
	30 Aug 2021 16:00	Altata	Mexico	0.5
	01 Sep 2021 09:00	San Jose	Mexico	0.5
	29 Aug 2021 11:00	La Puerta	Mexico	0.5
	29 Aug 2021 21:00	Dimas	Mexico	0.5
	29 Aug 2021 22:00	Perihuete	Mexico	0.5
	01 Sep 2021 08:00	Atanacio	Mexico	0.5
	29 Aug 2021 16:00	Florida	Mexico	0.5
	29 Aug 2021 09:00	Cuantla	Mexico	0.5
	30 Aug 2021 08:00	La Boca	Mexico	0.4
	01 Sep 2021 08:00	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.4
	31 Aug 2021 13:00	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.4
	29 Aug 2021 09:00	Novillero	Mexico	0.4
	29 Aug 2021 13:00	La Palmita	Mexico	0.4
	29 Aug 2021 10:00	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.4
	01 Sep 2021 13:00	Liliba	Mexico	0.4
	29 Aug 2021 01:00	Cruz de Juanacaxtle	Mexico	0.4
	31 Aug 2021 19:00	El Aquajito	Mexico	0.4
	29 Aug 2021 14:00	Barron	Mexico	0.4
	28 Aug 2021 21:00	Chola	Mexico	0.4
	29 Aug 2021 01:00	Punta Mita	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2021 04:00	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2021 02:00	San Francisco	Mexico	0.3
	31 Aug 2021 09:00	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.3
	01 Sep 2021 17:00	Guasimas	Mexico	0.3
	29 Aug 2021 02:00	Monteon	Mexico	0.3
	01 Sep 2021 06:00	Borabampo	Mexico	0.3
	31 Aug 2021 08:00	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 23:00	Ipala	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 20:00	Chamela	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 23:00	Aquiles Serdan	Mexico	0.2
	29 Aug 2021 00:00	Corrales	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 19:00	Cuitzmala	Mexico	0.2
	28 Aug 2021 19:00	La Manzanilla	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 00:00	Pizota	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 01:00	Puerto Vallarta	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 17:00	Estrecho	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 18:00	Barra de Navidad	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2021 01:00	Las Bocas	Mexico	0.1
	26 Aug 2021 23:00	Cachimba	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 17:00	Manzanillo	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 17:00	Santiago	Mexico	0.1
	29 Aug 2021 03:00	La Lima	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 16:00	El Ciruelo	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 16:00	Cuyutlan	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 16:00	El Real	Mexico	0.1
	28 Aug 2021 16:00	Chupadero	Mexico	0.1
	01 Sep 2021 01:00	Camahuiroa	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.