Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for NORA-21
in Mexico

Impact

Tropical Cyclone NORA-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GDACS
Glide number: TC-2021-000122-MEX
Exposed countries Mexico
Exposed population 1.4 million in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 139 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.7 m (29 Aug 07:00 UTC)
Vulnerability Medium (Mexico)
Landfall between
31 Aug 2021 06:00 - 31 Aug 2021 18:00

in Mexico

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
Current 120 km/h 0.6 m n.a. 1.5
Overall 139 km/h 0.7 m n.a. 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track) based on GDACS impact

Wind

120 km/h Current Max.

Up to 1.4 million people in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)

Impact Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Population in
Tropical Storm or higher
Population in
Cat 1. or higher
Countries
Green 1 25 Aug 2021 21:00 139 620 thousand No people Mexico
Green 2 26 Aug 2021 03:00 130 900 thousand No people Mexico
Green 3 26 Aug 2021 09:00 130 1.9 million No people Mexico
Green 4 26 Aug 2021 15:00 139 3.9 million No people Mexico
Orange 5 26 Aug 2021 21:00 139 4 million 640 thousand Mexico
Orange 6 27 Aug 2021 03:00 139 2.9 million 510 thousand Mexico
Orange 7 27 Aug 2021 09:00 148 3.1 million 260 thousand Mexico
Green 8 27 Aug 2021 15:00 139 7.6 million 8 thousand Mexico
Green 9 27 Aug 2021 21:00 148 4.7 million 40 thousand Mexico
Orange 10 28 Aug 2021 03:00 130 9.2 million 160 thousand Mexico
Orange 11 28 Aug 2021 09:00 130 6 million 180 thousand Mexico
Green 12 28 Aug 2021 15:00 148 8.3 million 20 thousand Mexico
Orange 13 28 Aug 2021 21:00 139 14.2 million 600 thousand Mexico
Orange 14 29 Aug 2021 03:00 120 14.4 million 1.1 million Mexico
Orange 15 29 Aug 2021 09:00 120 14.5 million 1.4 million Mexico

Bulletin Timeline

Alert Date (UTC) Category
(SSHS)
Max winds
(km/h)
Population in
Tropical Storm
or higher
Population in
Cat.1 or higher
Location (lat, lon) Countries
GREEN
1 25 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 11.7, -99.4
GREEN
2 26 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 11.9, -100.1
GREEN
3 26 Aug 2021 09:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 12, -100.6
GREEN
4 26 Aug 2021 15:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 12.5, -100.8
GREEN
5 26 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 65 no people no people 13.4, -101.7
GREEN
6 27 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical storm 74 no people no people 14.1, -102.6
GREEN
7 27 Aug 2021 09:00 Tropical storm 83 no people no people 14.6, -103.5
GREEN
8 27 Aug 2021 15:00 Tropical storm 83 610000 people no people 15.4, -104.3
GREEN
9 27 Aug 2021 21:00 Tropical storm 102 1.2 million people no people 15.5, -104.9
GREEN
10 28 Aug 2021 03:00 Tropical storm 102 2.2 million people no people 16.3, -105.1
GREEN
11 28 Aug 2021 09:00 Category 1 120 1.9 million people no people 17.1, -105.2
GREEN
12 28 Aug 2021 15:00 Category 1 130 2.8 million people 14000 people 18.4, -105.4
ORANGE
13 28 Aug 2021 21:00 Category 1 139 8.7 million people 470000 people 19.7, -105.4 Mexico
GREEN
14 29 Aug 2021 03:00 Category 1 120 2.4 million people 73000 people 21.3, -105.5
ORANGE
15 29 Aug 2021 09:00 Category 1 120 2.8 million people 640000 people 22.5, -105.9 Mexico
ORANGE
15 29 Aug 2021 18:00 Category 1 120 2 million people 190000 people 23.6, -106.8 Mexico
GREEN
15 30 Aug 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 111 1.8 million people no people 24.2, -107.4 Mexico
GREEN
15 30 Aug 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 111 2.2 million people no people 24.7, -108.1 Mexico
GREEN
15 31 Aug 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 111 1.2 million people no people 25.2, -108.8
GREEN
15 31 Aug 2021 18:00 Tropical storm 102 1.4 million people no people 26, -109.5 Mexico
GREEN
15 01 Sep 2021 06:00 Tropical storm 102 1.8 million people no people 27, -110.2 Mexico
GREEN
15 02 Sep 2021 06:00 Tropical depression 56 no people no people 29.5, -111 Mexico
Actual track of the current bulletin
The alert for forecast greater than 3 days is limited to Orange level.
Download:



Exposed population - AoIs

Exposed population in the potential affected countries, provinces and populated places

Countries

Country
Mexico

Provinces

Region Province Country Population
Sinaloa Mexico 2.4 million people
Nayarit Mexico 900000 people
Jalisco Mexico 5.8 million people

Populated places

Name Region Province Country City class Population
Escuinapa Sinaloa Mexico City 28000 people
Villa Unión Sinaloa Mexico City 13000 people
Mazatlan Sinaloa Mexico Major city 330000 people
Punta Mita Nayarit Mexico City -
Puerto Vallarta Jalisco Mexico City 190000 people
El Dorado Sinaloa Mexico City -

Critical infrastructure

Airports, ports, nuclear plants and hydrodams at risk, if affected, are listed below.

Airports

Name IATA Code Elevation (m) Usage Runway type IFR Runway Length (ft)
Teacapan 6 0
Rancho los Cabras 3 0
General Rafael Buelna International MZT 10 Civ. Paved Yes 8800
San Blas 3 0
El Llano 12 0
Lic Gustavo Diaz Ordaz International PVR 6 Civ. Paved Yes 10100
La Gloria 34 0

Ports

Name LOCODE Country
Mazatlan MXMZT Mexico
San Blas MXSBS Mexico
Puerto Vallarta MXPVR Mexico
Ipala Mexico
El Tabaco Mexico
Chamela Mexico

Dams

Reservoir Dam Name River Year
Cajon de Peda Tomatlan 1976

Rainfall

Rainfall accumulation of the past 24h, as detected by the Global Precipitation Measurement mission of NASA. For more information, see https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/GPM/main/index.html.

...

StormSurge

0.7 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.7m in Santa Cruz, Mexico. This height is estimated for 29 Aug 2021 07:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Locations affected by Storm surge (59 locations). Calculation based on advisory number 15 of 29 Aug 2021 09:00:00 UTC. (Simulation using 0.5 minute resolution)

Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
29 Aug 2021 07:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.7
29 Aug 2021 04:00 San Blas Mexico  0.7
29 Aug 2021 08:00 Cuamecate Mexico  0.7
29 Aug 2021 07:00 El Nuevo Mexico  0.7
31 Aug 2021 12:00 Cachoana Mexico  0.6
29 Aug 2021 06:00 Toro Mocho Mexico  0.6
30 Aug 2021 14:00 Las Arenitas Mexico  0.6
30 Aug 2021 13:00 El Castillo Mexico  0.6
29 Aug 2021 12:00 Caimanero Mexico  0.5
29 Aug 2021 12:00 Jarilla Mexico  0.5
29 Aug 2021 17:00 Marmol Mexico  0.5
29 Aug 2021 15:00 Mazatlan Mexico  0.5
30 Aug 2021 16:00 Altata Mexico  0.5
01 Sep 2021 09:00 San Jose Mexico  0.5
29 Aug 2021 11:00 La Puerta Mexico  0.5
29 Aug 2021 21:00 Dimas Mexico  0.5
29 Aug 2021 22:00 Perihuete Mexico  0.5
01 Sep 2021 08:00 Atanacio Mexico  0.5
29 Aug 2021 16:00 Florida Mexico  0.5
29 Aug 2021 09:00 Cuantla Mexico  0.5
30 Aug 2021 08:00 La Boca Mexico  0.4
01 Sep 2021 08:00 El Paredoncito Mexico  0.4
31 Aug 2021 13:00 Topolobampo Mexico  0.4
29 Aug 2021 09:00 Novillero Mexico  0.4
29 Aug 2021 13:00 La Palmita Mexico  0.4
29 Aug 2021 10:00 Isla de Palmito del Verde Mexico  0.4
01 Sep 2021 13:00 Liliba Mexico  0.4
29 Aug 2021 01:00 Cruz de Juanacaxtle Mexico  0.4
31 Aug 2021 19:00 El Aquajito Mexico  0.4
29 Aug 2021 14:00 Barron Mexico  0.4
28 Aug 2021 21:00 Chola Mexico  0.4
29 Aug 2021 01:00 Punta Mita Mexico  0.3
29 Aug 2021 04:00 Santa Cruz Mexico  0.3
29 Aug 2021 02:00 San Francisco Mexico  0.3
31 Aug 2021 09:00 Boca del Rio Mexico  0.3
01 Sep 2021 17:00 Guasimas Mexico  0.3
29 Aug 2021 02:00 Monteon Mexico  0.3
01 Sep 2021 06:00 Borabampo Mexico  0.3
31 Aug 2021 08:00 La Playa Colorada Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 23:00 Ipala Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 20:00 Chamela Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 23:00 Aquiles Serdan Mexico  0.2
29 Aug 2021 00:00 Corrales Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 19:00 Cuitzmala Mexico  0.2
28 Aug 2021 19:00 La Manzanilla Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 00:00 Pizota Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 01:00 Puerto Vallarta Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 17:00 Estrecho Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 18:00 Barra de Navidad Mexico  0.1
01 Sep 2021 01:00 Las Bocas Mexico  0.1
26 Aug 2021 23:00 Cachimba Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 17:00 Manzanillo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 17:00 Santiago Mexico  0.1
29 Aug 2021 03:00 La Lima Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 16:00 El Ciruelo Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 16:00 Cuyutlan Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 16:00 El Real Mexico  0.1
28 Aug 2021 16:00 Chupadero Mexico  0.1
01 Sep 2021 01:00 Camahuiroa Mexico  0.1